Can Giants v Suns go from ‘mockbuster' to megahit?
The Expansion Cup. It's the biggest game on the football calendar. At least it is for two clubs and their supporters who circle the day as a reminder that they're not alone in trying to break into a crowded market. But this time, the clash between the GWS Giants and the Gold Coast Suns is more than just a 'mockbuster'. It's for more than just tongue-in-cheek bragging rights. The AFL's glorified 'nepo babies' will meet for the first time with both sides sitting inside the top eight.
The finger of blame for this anomaly over 14 years of the clubs' shared history can be firmly pointed at the Suns. The Giants have appeared in seven finals campaigns, won nine post-season matches and reached a grand final in 2019. For the Suns, the numbers for the same are none, zero, zilch. But this season they are on the verge of overtaking the Giants in the premiership race. After giving the Giants a huge head start, the Suns are threatening to be the first of the expansion clubs to reach the promised land.
Gold Coast have only once been a genuine finals contender, when they were still sitting in the top eight as late as round 16 in 2014. Gary Ablett Jr went down at that point with a season-ending shoulder injury. The Suns tumbled with him to 12th. That remains their equal-highest finish, but the perennial underachievers are now likely five wins away from breaking their finals drought. They have six matches to come on their home deck and two games in hand on four of the sides sitting above their sixth place. A challenging run home awaits, but with three-time premiership coach Damien Hardwick's fingerprints all over their gameplan and brand, they finally look ready to stand up at the pointy end of a season.
The former Richmond coach inherited a high-potential midfield built around onball bull Matt Rowell and veteran Touk Miller. Noah Anderson adds the touch of class. Handing the captaincy to Anderson at 23 years old has been a masterstroke as much as a changing of the guard – just as Hardwick made Trent Cotchin the Tigers' skipper at a similar same age. Anderson finished in the top 10 of the 2023 Brownlow Medal in his fourth season. He is now a much more complete footballer; still polished in possession but better at winning and distributing the ball from the inside.
The recruitment of Daniel Rioli, who played under Hardwick at the Tigers, and John Noble has already paid dividends. The duo's dash and dare from half-back sets the tone and has helped make the Suns harder for opposition defences to contain. They have the fourth-highest scoring attack, with focal point Ben King already on 34 goals, as well as the fifth-tightest defence. That blend has been the premiership model in 18 of the past 20 years.
The best is still to come for Gold Coast. Grassroots participation in the city is booming and their well funded academy is paying for itself. Key forward Jed Walter, athletic tall Ethan Read, Jake Rogers and Will Graham all arrived from their football factory as first-round picks in 2023. Leo Lombard is another academy graduate since taken in the top 10. More highly touted prospects are tipped to be added later this year and leave the clubs in footy's heartland fuming.
Gold Coast and GWS both come with their flaws, their inconsistencies and talented but imbalanced playing lists. But at their best, they can match it with any team in the competition. GWS have beaten Collingwood, Geelong and Brisbane this year. Gold Coast have edged past the next tier of Adelaide, the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn.
The Suns are rising, while the Giants are … not quite falling, but too often just hanging on. The forward group led by the talismanic Toby Greene and reigning Coleman medallist Jesse Hogan could be the most potent in the game. But the Giants are ranked mid-table for scoring, marks inside 50 and tackles inside 50. Arguably the best intercepting backline in the league is forced to paper over the cracks further afield, as it defends against the most inside 50s coming its way outside West Coast. An ageing midfield is creaking and needs a refresh alongside Finn Callaghan and Tom Green.
The Giants have set the standard for the two newest clubs in the league. They have won 13 of their past 14 matches against the Suns, and all seven meetings at their home base by an average of 66 points. More than half of the 19 clashes between the Suns and Giants have been far from close encounters. They have been straight-to-DVD affairs decided by 40 points or more. The clash on Sunday is unlikely to break any box office records but the top-eight tussle will be worth watching if only for a glimpse into the future of an emerging force.
The reigning premiers will seek to return to form against the Cats on Friday night at a venue where they have not won since 2003.
GWS were the brash young upstarts threatening to build a dynasty. On the brink of a grand final in just their fifth season, their rapid rise was an AFL fever dream. But the Western Bulldogs had their own wave of momentum behind them during an emotionally charged finals campaign. The 2016 preliminary final had more on the line than just a spot in the decider. It soon became an all-time classic.
After a see-sawing first half, the Giants led by the narrowest of margins at the last change. Goals to Rory Lobb and Toby Greene gave them some breathing space, before the Bulldogs took the lead with three majors on the trot. Giants key forward Jonathon Patton brought the game back to within a point with his fourth of the day, and scores were level when Jack Macrae booted just his second goal of the season for the Dogs.
GWS small forward Devon Smith blasted wide from just inside the 50m arc with two minutes remaining to bring the margin back to under a kick. As the Giants pushed forward one last time, the Dogs' stand-in captain Easton Wood stood up with three desperate acts in as many seconds, befitting of the pulsating contest from both sides.
It was irrelevant to the outcome but felt right that Tory Dickson's shot after the siren hit the post, keeping the margin to a solitary goal. That was still enough for the Bulldogs to secure a grand final spot for the first time in 20,090 days, with more history to be written a week later when they faced the Swans.
The Brisbane veteran was first on the scene after Payne suffered what turned out to be a season-ending injury against GWS. 'I was right at his feet,' Zorko told SENQ Breakfast. 'There was a little bit of a noise, obviously him impacting the ground didn't sound great.'
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'The biggest thing for me when I was going through a rough patch was I just lost passion for the game, I didn't enjoy the grind,' the Giants forward Jesse Hogan told AFL 360. 'It became really tough and that's when my mind kind of wandered.
'I didn't enjoy getting to the club, I wasn't enjoying the small things that when you were 16 or 17 you did enjoy. Until you figure out the smaller things and you can really strip it all back and start to enjoy those things and put really good people around you, it can get really hard. He can make it work, absolutely he can.'
The reigning Coleman medallist backed Jamarra Ugle-Hagan to rediscover his love for the game after the former No 1 pick returned to training with the Western Bulldogs.
Any thoughts you want to share? Reply to this email or send your views to fromthepocket@theguardian.com.
Lance Franklin is the last player to kick a century with 113 goals in 2008, but who has booted the most majors in a season since then? Bonus points if you know the year and total number.
Answers in next week's newsletter, but if you think you know it, hit reply and let me know.
Last week's answer: Which two clubs have played the most matches against each other without meeting in a final? The Western Bulldogs (including as Footscray) and Richmond have played 161 times without a finals clash.
Congratulations to Logan P, who was first to reply with the right answer.
Bailey Smith has lived up to his star billing and helped change the way Geelong play since joining from the Western Bulldogs – but he is no showstopper, writes Jonathan Horn.
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