Calculating How Many Players ‘Destiny 2: The Edge Of Fate' Will Launch With, Per Math
Destiny 2: Edge of Fate
Destiny 2 is entering a much different new era in a month, one which will launch the next few years of the game. It's switching from an annual expansion and four seasons to two smaller expansions and four 'major updates' that are not seasons, and the entire project is called 'Frontiers.' Its first expansion is The Edge of Fate, which will be out on July 15, just under a month from now.
One open question is just how many players Edge of Fate will launch with, namely, who will have stuck around since the launch of Destiny 2's The Final Shape a year ago, given the context of how the game will work now.
I think we can use math to at least get a pretty good estimate of this, given the difference between the pre-expansion lows of the playerbase and then what they spiked to at actual launch. We will, of course, have to use Steam for this, as we don't have data elsewhere. We only have from Beyond Light forward for Steam, so no Forsaken or Shadowkeep.
Pre-Beyond Light Month (Oct 2020) – 94,000 concurrents
Beyond Light (Nov 2020) – 242,000 concurrents
Increase – 2.57x
Pre-Witch Queen Month (Jan 2022) – 78,000 concurrents
FEATURED | Frase ByForbes™
Unscramble The Anagram To Reveal The Phrase
Pinpoint By Linkedin
Guess The Category
Queens By Linkedin
Crown Each Region
Crossclimb By Linkedin
Unlock A Trivia Ladder
Witch Queen (Feb 2022) – 290,000 concurrents
Increase – 3.71x
Pre-Lightfall Month (Jan 2023) – 96,000 concurrents
Lightfall (Feb 2023) – 316,000 concurrents
Increase – 3.29x
Pre-Final Shape Month (May 2024) – 116,000 concurrents
The Final Shape (June 2024) – 314,000 concurrents
Increase – 2.7x increase
Destiny 2
So, what I'll do here is average the increases together, which would be a 3.01x increase
Then, we take the current playercount figures for this month, the month before Edge of Fate release: 38,000
3.01 x 38,000 = a potential 114,000 peak. That would be below half of Beyond Light and Witch Queen and close to a third of Lightfall and Final Shape. I also think you might be able to say that this could be an over-estimate if the idea is that in the post-Light and Darkness era, a brand new, lower-profile, smaller-scale expansion may prove less attractive.
I'm not trying to dunk on the game here, but I do think we have to be realistic about the new normal for Destiny 2 going forward. I've avoided reporting on the 'record lows' the game has hit almost every month since The Final Shape, but now reality is approaching as we try to see what level of surge we're getting for these smaller expansions. Then, of course, we'd have to see how the second expansion did six months later, the Star Wars-themed Renegades.
The way this works out on the revenue side is if the cost of making less content with fewer employees works with the new lower, average playercount in a way that doesn't put the game deeply in the red. This is not a short-term experiment, this is the plan for a few more years at least with no Destiny 3 on the horizon. It will have to work at least to some degree, as at this point, I don't think it's a safe bet that Bungie can rely on the upcoming Marathon to be the huge boost the studio needs (we've talked that to death at this point).
Maybe Edge of Fate will prove surprising, but it's a smaller expansion, offering less content, outside the long-term Light and Darkness saga. Expectations will have to be adjusted accordingly.
Follow me on Twitter, YouTube, Bluesky and Instagram.
Pick up my sci-fi novels the Herokiller series and The Earthborn Trilogy.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Forbes
44 minutes ago
- Forbes
‘Ginny And Georgia' Finally Dethroned In Netflix's Top 10 List By A New Show
Ginny and Georgia Outside of a brief brush with the WWE, Ginny and Georgia has remained on top of Netflix's top 10 list for a full two weeks since it released on June 5. Fans waited years for it to return, and they were not going to miss its arrival at last. But now, at long last, Ginny and Georgia has fallen down Netflix's top 10 list, dethroned by not just one but two new shows. It's now in third, and second place is America's Sweethearts: The Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders, the reality series following the auditions for the famed cheerleading team and their performances and drama behind the scenes. This is season 2, which my wife has already watched, and I'm struck by how little drama there is behind the scenes, as all the girls feel like best friends, for the most part. Top 10 The new number one show on Netflix is The Waterfront. Here's the synopsis: This very much reminds me of a previous Netflix series, Bloodlines, and then sprinkling in a bit of Ozark as well. I suppose, given that most people liked those shows, Netflix is trying to find another hit in that vein, as neither are airing anymore. I am interested in the series not because of its concept but because of its cast. First, it stars Holt McCallany, Netflix royalty as one of the two stars of Mindhunter. In giving interviews about The Waterfront, he made news that it was possible that Mindhunter may return for a third season in the form of three two-hour movies, which would essentially be six episodes, but it's all down to David Fincher. In another lead role is Melissa Benoist, who was the CW's Supergirl for multiple years, and she'll always have a special place in my heart for that, even as she's about to be replaced by Milly Alcock in the DCU (star of another big Netflix show in the past month, Sirens). I also know Humberly González, as she played the lead role in a recent video game, Star Wars Outlaws. Oh, and she's in 18 episodes of Ginny and Georgia, the show she just dethroned here alongside her cast. It remains to be seen how The Waterfront will perform. A top spot debut like this is a big deal. It has a 67% critic score, but that's only with six reviews in. There isn't enough data for an audience score yet, so we will wait and see. Follow me on Twitter, YouTube, Bluesky and Instagram. Pick up my sci-fi novels the Herokiller series and The Earthborn Trilogy.
CNN
an hour ago
- CNN
In pictures: Behind the scenes of ‘Jaws'
From left, Robert Shaw, Roy Scheider, Spielberg and Richard Dreyfuss share a moment of levity while filming on the open water, shortly before the actors' characters face off with the shark. Snap/Shutterstock Shaw, who plays the gruff, shark-hating veteran Quint, lies on the stern of the Orca, Quint's boat. The veteran actor's troubles during the film's production were documented in the play "The Shark is Broken," written by his son Ian. Universal Pictures/MichaelRichard Dreyfuss smiles from the diving cage where his character, shark researcher Matt Hooper, gets up close with the toothy villain. To make that scene feel more real, the crew shot real footage of sharks from a cage in Australia. Universal/Kobal/Shutterstock Susan Backlinie and Spielberg prepare to shoot the film's iconic opening, which doesn't end well for the skinny-dipper played by Backlinie. During production, the crew wasn't sure if the film was "going to flop on its face," Backlinie told CNN in 2010. Louis Goldman/Universal/Kobal/Shutterstock Left: Jay Mello, center, who plays Chief Brody's son Sean, displays a hand covered with fake blood. Right: Onlookers watch artificial shark fins cut through the water during a tense scene. Pamela Schall/WWD/Spielberg, left, and Dreyfuss consider a shark carcass, brought to shore by Amity Island fishermen who believe they've caught the murderous culprit. Dreyfuss wasn't Spielberg's first choice for Hooper, but he was convinced after watching the actor in "American Graffiti." Courtesy Everett Collection Scheider, left, and Spielberg examine footage from the day's production. Spielberg said he cast Scheider after running into the actor at a party, and Scheider recommended himself for the part. The Legacy Collection/THA/Shutterstock
Forbes
an hour ago
- Forbes
NYT ‘Connections' Hints And Answers For Saturday, June 21
Connections hints and answers are here. Looking for Friday's NYT Connections hints, clues and answers instead? You can find them here: Time for your first weekend Connections and I will admit, I found this one rather difficult. Though that may be some amount of brain fog given that I am on no sleep with a two-week old… How to Play Connections Connections is the second-most popular NYT Games puzzle game outside of the main crossword itself, and an extremely fun, free offering that will get your brain moving every day. Play it right here. The goal is to take a group of 16 words and find links between four pairs of four of them. They could be specific categories of terms, or they could be little world puzzles where words may come before or after them you need to figure out. And they get more complicated from there. There is only one set of right answers for this, and you only get a certain number of tries so you can't just spam around until you find something. There are difficulty tiers coded by color, which will usually go from yellow, blue/green to purple as difficulty increases, so know that going in and when you start linking them together. You pick the four words you think are linked and either you will get a solve and a lit up row that shows you how you were connected. If you're close, it will tell you that you're one away. Again, four mistakes you lose, but if you want to know the answers without failing, either come here, or delete your web cookies and try again. If you want to play more puzzles, you can get an NYT Games subscription to access the full archives of all past puzzles. So, onto the hints and answers: FEATURED | Frase ByForbes™ Unscramble The Anagram To Reveal The Phrase Pinpoint By Linkedin Guess The Category Queens By Linkedin Crown Each Region Crossclimb By Linkedin Unlock A Trivia Ladder What Are Today's Connections Hints? These are the hints that are laid out on the puzzle board itself, but after that, we will get into spoiler territory with some hints and eventually the answers. The hints for the Connections groups today are: What Are Today's Connections Groups? Alright, the full spoilers follow here as we get into what the groups are today: What Are Today's Connections Answers? The full-on answers are below for each group, finally inserting the four words in each category. Spoilers follow if you do not want to get this far. The Connections answers are: Connections Well, this felt like a puzzle that was going to be all about alcohol with different types of liquor and wines. But that is not at all what happened here, with the only drink being Brandy in the blue category with a bunch of other non-alcoholic apple productions. Well I guess cider can be alcoholic too. In college I may have put alcohol in apple sauce. Yellow group I thought was pretty straightforward albeit I thought that 'Firm" could be in there too, though I guess you would not call someone stocky that term, exactly, despite being in a similar category of words. I was confused by the green group as I just am not familiar with the term 'concern' used when it comes to the formation of a company. Turns out it's a type of business popular in Europe, which leads to the final group. Purple group had us going to some big and small European countries, albeit only half of them. We have Germany, Luxembourg, Malta and Portugal in a category that again, I thought had at least two words that had to do with wine. Tricky tricky. How did you fare with the puzzle today? Follow me on Twitter, YouTube, Bluesky and Instagram. Pick up my sci-fi novels the Herokiller series and The Earthborn Trilogy.
