
Dave Ernsberger talks about why India needs to build up its energy security
As the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, questions are also rising around the impact on oil markets.
Even though India does not import any oil from Iran, disruptions in the oil supply chain could impact the country which is a net importer of the commodity.
Can India avoid this situation by building its own reserves? Dave Ernsberger, co-President of S&P Global Commodity Insights, lays out the key issues.

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Dow Jones Futures: Tesla Robotaxi Launch Due; Four Stocks In Buy Zones
The market rally held in a range this past week, amid Israel-Iran news. The Tesla robotaxi launch is set for Sunday.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Why a top market strategist says his base case is still a 25% stock drop and a recession in 2025
Peter Berezin of BCA Research maintains a bearish outlook despite a tariff pause. Berezin predicts a 60% chance of recession, with the S&P 500 dropping to 4,500. Economic concerns include trade uncertainty, rising delinquencies, and a weakening labor market. At a time when strategists across Wall Street are dialing back their recession probabilities, Peter Berezin of BCA Research is doubling down. President Donald Trump's 90-day tariff pause was enough to ease the worries of some investors, but the chief global strategist at BCA has maintained his bearish outlook. While Berezin has lowered his recession outlook from Liberation Day levels, he still expects an economic slowdown to unfold this year. "I've brought down my recession probability from 75% to 60%, so it's not an overwhelming likelihood of recession, but it is still my base case. And in that base case, I would expect the S&P to trade down to around 4,500," Berezin told Business Insider. That would mark a 25% decline for the benchmark index from levels on Friday. While 4,500 sounds like a steep drop from the near-record highs the stock market is trading out now, Berezin doesn't think it'll take much to trigger the fall. A plunge to that level would require the S&P 500 to trade at 18 times earnings with EPS of $250. The index is currently trading at around 23 times earnings with EPS of around $260 — not too far off, in Berezin's opinion. "At this point, it's hard to make a case to be very optimistic on either the stock market or economy," Berezin said. The economy was already showing signs of weakness prior to the trade war fallout, Berezin said. Back in December of 2024, Berezin was calling for a recession in 2025 coupled with a stock market plunge of over 20%. His S&P 500 target of 4,452 was one of the lowest on Wall Street. Today, Berezin is concerned about continued trade uncertainty, a growing deficit, and a weakening consumer. Job openings have been on a downward trend since early 2022, "removing a lot of insulation that had protected the labor market," Berezin said. Indeed, other economists agree that the labor market might be weaker than it seems — Sam Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics is concerned with slowing hiring and declining small business sentiment. Berezin also points out that consumer delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans have been rising. In the first quarter of 2025, credit card delinquencies hit 3.05%. That's the highest level since 2011, "a year in which the unemployment rate was 8%," Berezin said. Furthermore, as student loan collections restart after a five-year hiatus amid the pandemic, consumers' credit scores are taking an even bigger hit. The housing market has also been a pressure point in the economy since COVID, with home affordability and inventory challenges mounting for buyers. Berezin pointed to falling construction in May—housing starts dropped 9.8% in the month— as another sign of a slowdown. The effective tariff rate is hovering around 15%, which is still a level that Berezin considers dangerous. "There's probably no ideal for a tariff rate, but there are numbers that are more punitive for the economy than others," he said. If Trump doesn't solidify trade deals soon, the economy could be in store for some major pain as businesses start to pass along price increases to consumers. A tariff rate lower than 10% would be less disruptive to the economy, but Berezin isn't hopeful that Trump will lower his policies to that level. "Since tariffs on China probably will be higher than tariffs in other countries, that means Trump would have to roll back his 10% base tariff that he's applied to almost all countries," Berezin said. "I don't see him doing that unless the market forces him to do it." In fact, Berezin thinks Trump might even increase tariffs on some industries such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber. Berezin doesn't see an easy way around an impending recession. Some strategists might be hoping for Trump's Big Beautiful Bill to boost the economy through tax cuts, but unfunded tax cuts could push bond yields higher and cancel out any any stimulus. According to the Congressional Budget Office, while the tax bill would increase GDP growth by 0.5% on average over the next 10 years, it would also push up 10-year Treasury yields by 14 basis points and increase the deficit by $2.8 trillion. A stock market crash and economic downturn could actually be the turning point for Trump to reverse course on his policies, Berezin said. The S&P 500 dipping below 5,000 and the 10-year Treasury yield spiking above 4.5% probably influenced Trump to paus tariffs for 90 days, Berezin added. "We could get more tariff relief, but the market has to force that. I don't think it's going to come from any other source," he said. Read the original article on Business Insider
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Dollar and Gold Retreat on Reduced Middle East Tensions
The dollar index (DXY00) Friday fell by -0.21%. The dollar came under pressure Friday on an easing of safe-haven demand after Reuters reported that the Iranian government said it is ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment levels. Also, President Trump said he is willing to give diplomacy more time and won't decide to strike Iran for another two weeks. In addition, dovish comments Friday from Fed Governor Waller weighed on the dollar when he said, "I think we have room to bring interest rates down as early as July, and then we can see kind of see what happens with inflation." The dollar remained lower on the weaker-than-expected Philadelphia Fed business outlook report. Dollar and Gold Slide on Hopes of De-Escalation in Israel-Iran Conflict Dollar and Gold Retreat on Reduced Middle East Tensions Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! The US June Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey was unchanged at -4.0, weaker than expectations of an increase to -1.5. US May leading economic indicators index fell -0.1% m/m, right on expectations, and the sixth consecutive month that the LEI has declined. The markets are discounting the chances at 15% for a -25 bp rate cut after the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Friday rose by +0.30%. The euro moved higher on Friday due to weakness in the dollar. However, gains in the euro were limited after the Eurozone's June consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell and after German May producer prices posted their biggest decline in eight months, which were dovish factors for ECB policy. The Eurozone June consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell -0.1 to -15.3, weaker than expectations of an increase to -14.9. German May PPI fell -1.2% y/y, right on expectations and the biggest decline in 8 months. Swaps are discounting the chances at 7% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Friday rose by +0.38%. The yen gave up overnight gains and fell to a 3-week low against the dollar Friday as an easing of Middle East tensions curbed safe-haven demand for the yen. Reuters reported that the Iranian government said it is ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment levels, and President Trump said he's willing to wait two weeks to see if diplomacy will work before attacking Iran. The yen initially moved higher Friday after Japan's May national CPI excluding fresh food and energy rose more than expected by the most in 16 months, a hawkish factor for BOJ policy. Also, comments from BOJ Governor Ueda were positive for the yen when he said the BOJ will raise the benchmark interest rate if its economic outlook is realized. Japan's May national CPI rose +3.5% y/y, right on expectations. May national CPI ex-fresh food and energy rose +3.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.2% y/y and the largest increase in 16 months. BOJ Governor Ueda said Japan's real interest rate is significantly low, and the BOJ will raise the benchmark interest rate if its economic outlook is realized. August gold (GCQ25) Friday closed down -22.40 (-0.66%), and July silver (SIN25) closed down -0.896 (-2.43%). Precious metals retreated on Friday, with gold sliding to a one-week low and silver falling sharply to a two-week low. An easing of Middle East tensions sparked long liquidation in precious metals after President Trump signaled he wants to give diplomacy a chance and will wait two weeks before deciding if the US would strike Iran. Precious metals also fell on Friday's report from Reuters that said the Iranian government is ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment levels, a sign that Iran may want to negotiate its way out of war with the US. In addition, hawkish comments from BOJ Governor Ueda undercut precious metals when he said the BOJ will raise the benchmark interest rate if its economic outlook is realized. Friday's dollar weakness was supportive of metals prices. Also, dovish comments Friday from Fed Governor Waller boosted demand for gold as a store of value when he said, "I think we have room to bring interest rates down as early as July." In addition, Thursday's report from Bloomberg that said senior US officials are preparing for a possible strike on Iran boosted safe-haven demand for precious metals. Industrial metals demand concerns weighed on silver prices on Friday due to the weaker-than-expected US Jun Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey and the weaker-than-expected UK May retail sales report. However, fund buying of silver continues to support prices as silver holdings in ETFs rose to a 2-1/4 year high Thursday. UK May retail sales ex-auto fuel fell -2.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.7% m/m and the biggest decline in nearly 1-1/2 years. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio