Explainer: what will the withdrawal of USAid mean for the Pacific?

The dismantling of USAid by president Donald Trump is having a ripple effect across the Pacific as people working on more than 100 projects and activities in the region grapple with an uncertain future.
While Pacific analysts say overall the region is resilient and will not be heavily affected by the withdrawal, hundreds of people working on USAid projects across the region say their lives and communities have already been upended.
According to the Lowy Institute, the US is the fifth-biggest funder of the Pacific behind Australia, China, Japan and New Zealand.
'At the individual level, Pacific islanders are definitely affected by this. US-funded projects are usually well paid, and in places like Papua New Guinea, a single income supports extended family members and communities,' said Dr Lefaoalii Dion Enari, a Pacific expert at Auckland University of Technology.
'This type of approach will harm US relations in the Pacific a lot more than it will harm the Pacific itself,' Lefaoalii said.
USAid funds initiatives in a range of areas including health, the climate crisis and economic development. It helps countries develop and implement climate action plans and provides grants to local organisations to build resilience against the climate crisis and disasters. USAid also funds initiatives on community disaster preparedness and sustainable energy. For example, USAid's Climate Ready for Big Ocean State Sustainability program was designed give 12 Pacific countries more access to climate finance for critical adaptation and mitigation projects.
USAid does not publish a comprehensive list of projects it supports in the Pacific. But estimates drawn from USAid documents, regional bodies and analysts, suggest there are more than 100 large- and small-scale projects supported by USAid across the region.
The Guardian spoke to 12 people across the Pacific involved in USAid projects. They did not want to be named for fear of losing potential future income. Some have already been let go, while others are in limbo, uncertain about how long they will remain employed.
One source estimated 600 Pacific islanders are full-time employees of USAid projects, but that does not account for contractors and other partners – which is estimated to amount to thousands of people.
Another worker at an organisation in Papua New Guinea that relies on USAid expressed anxiety about the future. 'We employ four people, and as of now, we do not know how long we will remain in operation,' they said.
According to the Lowy Institute, the US spent $3.4bn in the Pacific Islands cumulatively between 2008 and 2024. A total of $249m was spent in 2022, with the majority going to Compact of Free Association (Cofa) nations, which are the Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau.
'The US spends 80% of its aid to the Pacific on Cofa nations. Of the remaining 20%, most goes to Papua New Guinea and other Melanesian countries,' said Alexandre Dayant, deputy director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre at the Lowy Institute.
'Cofa nations are shielded from the USAid freeze as their funding was approved by Congress through the Department of the Interior,' he added.
Although the US pledged $600m in 2022 to strengthen its engagement in the Pacific, including commitments to open embassies in Tonga and Kiribati and appoint a US envoy to the Pacific Islands Forum, people involved in the programs on the Pacific side say the funds have yet to fully reach the islands.
Some programs are looking for new funding. One organisation in Samoa, the Adventist Development and Relief Agency (Adra), was granted $532,608 in 2023 from USAid to create new economic opportunities, promote women's empowerment, and address disaster risk management in 20 rural villages. The programs supported around 14,000 villagers. The agency also provides workshops on mental health, domestic violence and family health, which are supported by USAid and the Pacific American Fund.
In a statement issued earlier this week, Adra said it was actively seeking alternative funding to continue its suspended life-saving programs. The organisation said it was working to utilise other available resources to keep critical initiatives operational during the review period and remains hopeful for a positive outcome.
This includes the community disaster and climate risk management, which gives villages knowledge and skills to respond to hazards and disaster.
'Even though this is shocking initially for our people, at the end of the day, we are resilient,' Lefaoalii told the Guardian. 'For Samoa, and for many across our islands, we have social safety nets built into the community to help in such times.'
Despite the resilience of the region, Lefaoalii said the move by Trump has been seen in the Pacific as 'disrespectful'.
'We deeply value loyalty and respect, and this move was disrespectful. It was not consultative and has directly affected community livelihoods, this will not be easily forgotten by Pacific leaders,' said Lefaoalii.

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