Ray Thomas, Ron Dufficy tips for Rosehill, Eagle Farm on Saturday
Racenet and The Daily Telegraph's Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central's Ron Dufficy debate the chances for the Winter Cup meeting at Rosehill Gardens, plus both Group 1 races on Stradbroke Handicap Day at Eagle Farm.
Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.
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DUFF'S BEST BETS
Race 5 No.2 CODETTA
Race 9 No.6 HALF YOURS
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ROSEHILL RACE 1: Chandon Handicap (1400m)
Ron Dufficy: I want to be with REGULATED AFFAIR (1) who has trialled nicely since his last start and a drier track is in his favour. NAMASTE (3) is still learning but I liked the way he fits in here on the map. CROCODILE (2) showed nice improvement when getting to this distance last start. CRUSADER VOYAGE (5) finished off nicely at his debut and is bred to eat up the extra ground.
Ray Thomas: CROCODILE (2)'s maiden win at Hawkesbury could have been accentuated by the very heavy track but it was still an impressive effort as he led and dominated the race, winning by a big margin. I've got him on top from REGULATED AFFAIR (1) who looks nicely placed here on his home track. NAMASTE (3) is improving with racing and watch for QUEEN OF CLUBS (12) to run a race at odds.
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ROSEHILL RACE 2: TAB Highway (1400m)
Dufficy: I like SUPER NORWEST (6). She won her only start over this track and distance, she's primed third-up off a great last start effort and looks hard to beat. PLENITUDE (9) has been well tried but had no luck at last two starts and deserves a change of fortune. HELL OF A FOX (5) is thriving for the new stable having won three straight. SALUTE AGAIN (19) has been around the mark all preparation under big weights and gets in light here.
Thomas: PLENITUDE (9) hasn't had much go his way in recent starts including his third in Randwick Highway after he was held up for a run at the top of the straight. The barrier draw is ideal here, he should get the right run and will go close. SUPER NORWEST (6) beat Plenitude home last start and does look the main danger but she has to overcome a wide draw. MULVADER (3) and HELL OF A FOX (5) are also drawn off the track but both are racing well.
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ROSEHILL RACE 3: Midway Hcp (1200m)
Dufficy: SILENTSAR (2) is resuming off one nice trial and has good form for a race like this. SMASHING TIME (6) has been a work in progress for a while now but with a drop in grade and recent racing he could surprise. LET'S GO AGAIN (13) is going well and is hard to dismiss. MONTE KATE (1) is very well graded here even with the big weight and has strong credentials.
Thomas: I've gone with LET'S GO AGAIN (13). She's a lightly-raced mare building a consistent record and she one of the main chances is an open race. IL PASSERO (17) has to come back slightly in trip but he has tactical speed, is well drawn and has no weight. MONTE KATE (1) is another mare racing in good form but she has her share of weight. OAKFIELD BADGER (7) is never far away and overdue to win one of these races.
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ROSEHILL RACE 4: Racing And Sports Hcp (1400m)
Dufficy: TASORAAY (11) has been kept fresh since landing some nice bets at Scone. He looks to get a cosy run on the map here so I'm leaning his way. I'm going to have something on KUNDABUNG (12) who is a very good longshot after a forgivable run last start. I think he has talent. DAME COMMANDER (4) had vet excuses in Queensland last start and could be the forgotten horse. HOPPER (8) was great when up in class last start.
Thomas: I'm also with TASORAAY (11) for the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. There was a lot to like about his win at Scone and he can only improve. HELL TO PAY (3) finally broke through for a deserved win at Canterbury and he's got to be hard to beat again. HOPPER (8) does look a likely type and I'm keeping a close watch on any betting moves for PRETTY POWERFUL (10) who gets in well at the weights after the claim.
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ROSEHILL RACE 5: Asahi Super Dry Hcp (1100m)
Dufficy: CODETTA (2)'s first-up run was hard to miss, Ray. She is unbeaten second-up and should prove hard to beat. SUMMER FLAME (16) is a big improver on a drier track. MARTINI MUMMA (10) had a few excuses first-up and I like her back to 1100m. EPIC PROPORTIONS (1) drops in grade, has the claim third-up and should go well.
Thomas: I agree with everything you say about CODETTA (2). She ran a blinder first-up, get the benefit of Jace McMurray's 3kg claim, and can turn the tables on the promising KING'S SECRET (9) who is going to get the right run from the good draw. WINNING PROPOSAL (3) is fitter for two runs back from a spell and she's got ability when right. EPIC PROPORTIONS (1) does look well placed here.
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ROSEHILL RACE 6: Ranvet Hcp (1500m)
Dufficy: PURE ALPHA (10) hasn't won in a year but he would have last start if he got clear running earlier. The draw looks good for him and I'm leaning his way. MICKEY'S MEDAL (5) is racing with a high level of consistency as is LITTLE COINTREAU (6) – they both represent threats. CHICA MOJITO (2) did enough first-up and rarely runs a bad race.
Thomas: MICKEY'S MEDAL (5) was never on the track last start, racing three wide without cover and did a super job to hold off Hopper and win well over this course and distance two weeks ago. Mickey's Medal is perfectly drawn here, excels over the track and distance and the drier surface is also in his favour. He ticks all the boxes. LITTLE COINTREAU (6) is very genuine, PURE ALPHA (10) is working his way back to top form and NORTHERN EYES (3) will be in the mix.
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ROSEHILL RACE 7: Captivant At Kia Ora Hcp (1300m)
Dufficy: Wide open race. TESTATOR SILENS (1) has a big weight but he has done enough in two unsuitable races back from a spell and is primed for 1300m. HIGH BLUE SEA (4) has trialled up nicely and is usually good fresh. UNSTOPABULL (7) finds a suitable race third-up now and understandably is popular. SNACK BAR (11) gets the right run from the draw and gets in light with the claim.
Thomas: SNACK BAR (11), who was stakes placed when last in work, has raced in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne in successive starts this campaign. He's been racing well without winning and but this race sets up nicely from the good draw. TESTATOR SILENS (1) is ready after two runs from a spell, KING OF ROSEAU (5) got bogged down at Randwick and deserves another chance, while HIGH BLUE SEA (4) will be running on well.
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ROSEHILL RACE 8: Winter Cup (2400m)
Dufficy: This is another open race. TOURISTIC (3) has his confidence back with an authoritative win last start. There is no reason he can't go on with it here as the jar is still out of the track which suits him. DON DIEGO DE VEGA (6) had to give an impossible start there last start and did a great job to finish as close as he did. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (1) has been sharpened up with a trial win and he could do something here. He's a huge query. BEAR ON THE LOOSE (5) is set to give plenty of cheek as he will settle on speed again.
Thomas. BEAR ON THE LOOSE (5) still has to show he can run a strong 2400m but he is very fit, racing well and is likely to get control up front which all equates to a very competitive run. TOURISTIC (3) is also on trial at this trip but he was dominant in the Lord Mayor's Cup last start. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (1) is a talented stayer good enough to race well first-up over this trip, while DON DIEGO DE VEGA (6) will be improved by his good comeback run.
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ROSEHILL RACE 9: TAB Handicap (2000m)
Dufficy: HALF YOURS (6) was possibly flattered by the heavy track last start but he was very dominant and is building a good race record now. I'm happy to be with him. FREIGHT TRAIN (12) could be the big improver on the drier track. CORMAC T (8) is holding his form and is a chance again. QUANTUM CAT (7) is working up to a win.
Thomas: I'm leaning to CORMAC T (8). He has returned in very good form, he's ideally drawn and the improving track is in his favour. ASSAILANT (11) is superbly bred by Dubawi and he shaped promisingly when third over 1500m at Canterbury. The bigger track and 2000m are in his favour. KIND WORDS (10) will need luck form her wide barrier but she's racing well. HALF YOURS (6) has risen sharply at the weights to 60kg but he could not have been more impressive last start.
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ROSEHILL RACE 10: Toyota Forklifts Hcp (1300m)
Dufficy: I don't mind PAJANTI (9) at big odds. There has been merit in both her runs back from a spell and she doesn't have to improve much. WEEPING WOMAN (8) has a wide draw to overcome but was great first-up considering the testing heavy track. DRIFT NET (7) gets another chance dropping back in distance with the claim. WATCH MY GIRL (1) had heat stress first-up and is well-graded on her best form.
Thomas: HELLBENT ON YOU (6) is another not suited by the very heavy track at Randwick last start but she still stuck on well. Her previous form was very good and she will be competitive in an open race. If WEEPING WOMAN (8) had drawn a barrier she would have been on top. With luck in running, she will go close. SACRED ROCKS (11) has drawn off the track but stays under notice after a brilliant first-up win at Sale. PAJANTI (9) had no luck second-up and is worth another chance.
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EAGLE FARM RACE 6: Group 1 JJ Atkins (2yo, 1600m)
Dufficy: I just feel HIDDEN ACHIEVEMENT (8) has had the perfect preparation leading into this race. He looks a promising horse, gets a set of blinkers, and this looks a typical Chris Waller 'Grand Final' set-up. FARNICLE (3) was good in the Sires, he showed a lot of fight that day indicating he will give plenty of cheek up on top of the speed here. COOL ARCHIE (1) keeps jumping the bar and it was an incredible win last start. If he can bring that form to the dry track here he will be in the finish again. GRAFTERBURNERS (2) is better on a drier track and I like the way he has progressed third-up into this race.
Thomas: COOL ARCHIE (1) just keeps winning. He handles all track conditions and was outstanding powering home to win the Sires last start. He should run a strong 1600m and can make it five wins in succession. I agree that HIDDEN ACHIEVEMENT (8) has had the right preparation for this race and will be in the finish. FARNICLE (3) might take catching if he can get some control up front and AERODROME (6) will be running on.
• Graeme Carey's race-by-race tips, analysis for Stradbroke Handicap Day at Eagle Farm
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EAGLE FARM RACE 8: Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap (1400m)
Dufficy: WAR MACHINE (7) is short enough but I can't get away from him. He has a sense of timing about him, he's dodged all the testing wet track runs coming into this and gets in with a beautiful weight. PRIVATE EYE (1) is the forgotten horse and is well set-up with a handful of trials. There is stable confidence he is here to run well. RISE AT DAWN (13) was fantastic in a Doncaster Mile two starts back so this looks a lovely target riding the speed with no weight. DESERT LIGHTNING (3) was OK last start, has a big weight drop and he is shaping as a good longshot.
Thomas: GOLDEN MILE (6) got the measure of Zarastro and looked likely to win the Kingsford Smith Cup only to be collared right on the line by the outstanding Joliestar. He carried weight-for-age of 59kg that day, drops to 53.5kg, drawn to get all the favours and he's at each way odds. PRIVATE EYE (1) has had four barrier trials to prepare for this and he does race well fresh. WAR MACHINE (7) is hard to fault but he's rock bottom odds.
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Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy's race-by-race tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens plus tips for Stradbroke Handicap, JJ Atkins at Eagle Farm
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