Trump's Iran strikes: Tactical win or strategic gamble?
WASHINGTON, June 22 — For nearly a half-century the United States has squabbled with Iran's Islamic republic but the conflict has largely been left in the shadows, with US policymakers believing, often reluctantly, that diplomacy was preferable.
With President Donald Trump's order of strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, the United States — like Israel, which encouraged him — has brought the conflict into the open, and the consequences may not be clear for some time to come.
'We will only know if it succeeded if we can get through the next three to five years without the Iranian regime acquiring nuclear weapons, which they now have compelling reasons to want,' said Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA analyst and supporter of the 2003 Iraq war who is now vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute.
US intelligence had not concluded that Iran was building a nuclear bomb, with Tehran's sensitive atomic work largely seen as a means of leverage, and Iran can be presumed to have taken precautions in anticipation of strikes.
Trita Parsi, an outspoken critic of military action, said Trump 'has now made it more likely that Iran will be a nuclear weapons state in the next five to 10 years.'
'We should be careful not to confuse tactical success with strategic success,' said Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
'The Iraq war was also successful in the first few weeks but President Bush's declaration of 'Mission Accomplished' did not age well,' he said.
Weak point for Iran
Yet Trump's attack — a week after Israel began a major military campaign — came as the cleric-run state is at one of its weakest points since the 1979 Islamic revolution toppled the pro-Western shah.
Since the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, which enjoys Iran's support, Israel — besides obliterating much of Gaza — has decimated Lebanon's Hezbollah, a militant group that would once reliably strike Israel as Tehran's proxy.
Iran's main ally among Arab leaders, Syria's Bashar al-Assad, was also toppled in December.
Supporters of Trump's strike argued that diplomacy was not working, with Iran standing firm on its right to enrich uranium.
'Contrary to what some will say in the days to come, the US administration did not rush to war. In fact, it gave diplomacy a real chance,' said Ted Deutch, a former Democratic congressman who now heads the American Jewish Committee.
'The murderous Iranian regime refused to make a deal,' he said.
Top Senate Republican John Thune pointed to Tehran's threats to Israel and language against the United States and said that the state had 'rejected all diplomatic pathways to peace.'
Abrupt halt to diplomacy
Trump's attack comes almost exactly a decade after former president Barack Obama sealed a deal in which Iran drastically scaled back its nuclear work — which Trump pulled out of in 2018 after coming into office for his first term.
Most of Trump's Republican Party and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long seen Iran as an existential threat, attacked Obama's deal because it allowed Tehran to enrich uranium at levels well beneath weapons grade and the key clauses had an end date.
But Trump, billing himself a peacemaker, just a month ago said on a visit to Gulf Arab monarchies that he was hopeful for a new deal with Iran, and his administration was preparing new talks when Netanyahu attacked Iran.
This prompted an abrupt U-turn from Trump.
'Trump's decision to cut short his own efforts for diplomacy will also make it much harder to get a deal in the medium and long runs,' said Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defence Priorities, which advocates restraint.
'Iran now has no incentive to trust Trump's word or to believe that striking a compromise will advance Iran's interests.'
Iran's religious rulers also face opposition internally. Major protests erupted in 2022 after the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, who was detained for defying the regime's rules on covering hair.
Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote on social media that Trump's strikes could either entrench the Islamic Republic or hasten its downfall.
'The US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities is an unprecedented event that may prove to be transformational for Iran, the Middle East, US foreign policy, global non-proliferation and potentially even the global order,' he said.
'Its impact will be measured for decades to come.' — AFP
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The Star
36 minutes ago
- The Star
Seoul seeks to minimise fallout from US strikes on Iran
SEOUL: The presidential office ordered ministries to prioritise the protection of South Korean nationals and to minimise potential security and economic fallout from the US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The ministries have since taken emergency measures in response. South Korean National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac convened an emergency meeting at noon Sunday (June 22), hours after the US military bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran, presidential spokesperson Kang Yu-jung said during a televised briefing. 'At today's meeting, discussions focused on the impact of the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities — which follows the Israel-Iran conflict — on our security and economy, while also accurately assessing the current situation,' Kang said. '(National Security Office) Director Wi Sung-lac emphasised that, above all, it is important to protect the lives and safety of our nationals and to ensure the stable continuity of daily life," she added. According to Kang, Wi also 'called on relevant ministries to maintain close communication and cooperation to minimise the impact that the recent series of developments in the Middle East may have on the security and economic situation of the Korean Peninsula." Kang underscored that 'the discussions spearheaded by the presidential office will continue, closely monitoring developments related to the current situation and taking into account potential changes in circumstances.' The emergency meeting was also attended by first deputy National Security Adviser Kim Hyun-jong, second deputy adviser Lim Woong-soon, and third deputy adviser Oh Hyun-joo, as well as Senior Presidential Secretary for Economic Growth Ha Joon-kyung, among others. Second Vice Foreign Minister Kim Jina held a joint emergency response meeting between the Foreign Ministry headquarters and the South Korean Embassy in Iran on Sunday afternoon to review safety measures for South Korean nationals and assess the situation in Iran, according to the Foreign Ministry in Seoul. 'Second Vice Foreign Minister Kim Jina called for leaving no stone unturned to ensure the safety of our nationals living in Iran, given that the situation could further deteriorate following the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities,' the ministry said in a statement. Kim also 'ordered watertight measures to ensure the safety of embassy staff.' 'The Foreign Ministry will devise necessary measures for the safety of our nationals while closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East,' the ministry added. As of Saturday, around 60 South Korean nationals remained in Iran, down from approximately 110 who were staying in the country as of June 13, when the exchange of airstrikes began with Israel's surprise attack on Iran. According to the Foreign Ministry, a total of 56 South Korean nationals and their Iranian family members had fled Iran and entered Turkmenistan as of Saturday. Among them were 51 South Koreans and 5 Iranians. In Israel, around 460 South Korean nationals remain. This follows the evacuation of 25 South Koreans and one Israeli family member to Jordan on Thursday, and a separate evacuation of 23 South Koreans to Jordan on June 16. On the same day, Second Vice Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Choe Nam-ho held an emergency session for a comprehensive situation assessment meeting to evaluate potential effects on domestic industries, including energy, exports, logistics, supply chains and South Korean companies operating in the region. After the meeting, the ministry said it has activated an emergency response team in response to rising Middle East tensions. The meeting was held amid growing concerns over possible disruptions to crude oil and liquefied natural gas or LNG imports, as well as the operational status of tankers navigating waters near the Strait of Hormuz — a vital chokepoint for both South Korean and global energy shipments. According to a database provided by the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, around 99 percent of Middle East-produced crude oil bound for South Korea passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the KOTRA. Separately, Acting Finance Minister Lee Hyoung-il convened a closed-door emergency response meeting with relevant agencies on Sunday afternoon to assess the economic impact of the US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. Tensions escalated as US President Trump announced early Sunday that the United States had struck three Iranian nuclear sites — in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — joining Israel's airstrikes against Iran on the 10th day of the Israel-Iran conflict. In response to the US strikes, the Foreign Ministry said Sunday, 'Our government hopes that tensions in the region will be alleviated rapidly and will continue to participate in international efforts toward that end.' 'Our government places importance on resolving the Iranian nuclear issue from the perspective of nuclear nonproliferation and is closely monitoring developments related to the attack on nuclear facilities in Iran this morning, Korea time,' the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. - The Korea Herald/ANN
Malay Mail
3 hours ago
- Malay Mail
Air raid sirens across Israel as Iran vows to defend itself after US ‘obliterates' nuclear sites
JERUSALEM, June 22 — Israel faced a missile attack today as Iran said it reserved all options to defend itself after unprecedented US strikes that President Donald Trump said had 'obliterated' its key nuclear facilities. Hours after Trump dramatically escalated Middle East tensions by sending B-2 bombers to Iran, the Israeli military warned people to seek cover from a barrage that appeared heavier than the Iranian salvoes fired in the past few days. 'The events this morning are outrageous and will have everlasting consequences,' said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas, calling the US strikes a 'grave violation' of the UN charter, international law and the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. 'Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people,' Araqchi posted on X. Iran's Atomic Energy Organization said it would not allow development of its 'national industry' to be stopped, and an Iranian state television commentator said every US citizen or military member in the region would be legitimate targets. Israel's ambulance service said at least 16 people were hurt in the morning barrage. Air raid sirens sounded across most of the country, sending millions of people to safe rooms and bomb shelters as explosions rang out and missile interceptions were seen above Jerusalem and in other parts of the country. It was not immediately clear how many missiles had pierced Israel's air defence systems, but police confirmed at least three impact sites in residential areas in central and northern Israel. Video from Israel's commercial hub Tel Aviv and the port city of Haifa further north showed rescue teams combing through debris, apartments reduced to rubble, mangled cars along a street filled with debris and medics evacuating injured people from a row of blown out houses. Most airlines continued to avoid large parts of the Middle East after the US strikes, according to flight tracking website FlightRadar24, with traffic already skirting airspace in the region due to recent missile exchanges. Trump says Iran faces 'peace or tragedy' Trump, in a televised address to the US people, flanked by Vice President JD Vance, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, called the strikes a 'spectacular military success' that had taken out Iran's three principal nuclear sites: Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow. He warned Tehran it would face more devastating attacks if it does not agree to peace. After days of deliberation and long before his self-imposed two-week deadline, Trump's decision to join Israel's military campaign against its major rival Iran is the biggest foreign policy gamble of his two presidencies and one fraught with risks and unknowns. The major escalation of armed conflict in the Middle East risks opening a new era of instability in the Middle East. Trump said Iran's future held 'either peace or tragedy,' and there were many other targets that could be hit by the US military. 'If peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill.' The US contacted Iran diplomatically yesterday to say the strikes are all the US plans and it does not aim for regime change, CBS News reported. Trump told Fox News' Sean Hannity show that six 'bunker-buster' bombs were dropped on the deep-underground Fordow facility, while 30 Tomahawk missiles were fired against other nuclear sites. US B-2 bombers were involved in the strikes, a US official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. Reuters had reported the movement of the B-2 bombers, which can be equipped to carry the massive bombs that experts say would be needed to strike Fordow, which is buried beneath a mountain south of Tehran. Given its fortification, it will likely be days, if not longer, before the impact of the strikes is known. An Iranian official, cited by Tasnim news agency, confirmed part of the Fordow site was attacked by 'enemy airstrikes.' However, Mohammad Manan Raisi, a lawmaker for Qom, near Fordow, told the semi-official Fars news agency the facility had not been seriously damaged. A reporter from Iranian state media IRNA reporter said he had arrived near the Fordow site at 3am (2330 GMT on Saturday) and saw smoke that 'seems to be related to air defences'. He quoted a nearby witness as reporting 'six explosions were heard, but they said it wasn't very loud.' Diplomatic failure The UN nuclear watchdog said no increases in off-site radiation levels had been reported after the US strikes. Hassan Abedini, deputy political head of Iran's state broadcaster, said Iran had evacuated the three sites some time ago. 'The enriched uranium reserves had been transferred from the nuclear centres and there are no materials left there that, if targeted, would cause radiation and be harmful to our compatriots,' he told the channel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Trump on his 'bold decision', saying, 'History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world's most dangerous regime, the world's most dangerous weapons.' Israel and Iran have been engaged in more than a week of aerial combat that has resulted in deaths and injuries in both countries. Israel launched its attacks on June 13, saying Iran was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only. Israel is widely assumed to possess nuclear weapons, which it neither confirms nor denies. Diplomatic efforts by Western nations to stop the hostilities have so far failed. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the US strikes a 'dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge — and a direct threat to international peace and security.' In the US, Democratic lawmakers and some from Trump's Republican Party have argued that he must receive permission from Congress before committing the US military to any combat against Iran. At least 430 people have been killed and 3,500 injured in Iran since Israel began its attacks, Iranian state-run Nour News said, citing the health ministry. In Israel, 24 civilians have been killed and 1,272 people injured, according to local authorities. — Reuters
New Straits Times
3 hours ago
- New Straits Times
Trump threatens further escalation if Iran retaliates against US strikes
KUALA LUMPUR: United States President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Iran following its strikes on three nuclear facilities across the country earlier today. "Any retaliation by Iran against the United States of America will be met with force far greater than what was witnessed tonight," Trump wrote in capital letters on social media platform Truth Social. The United States announced its entry into the Iran-Israel war earlier today, stating that it has carried out attacks on three Iranian nuclear sites, including the underground uranium enrichment facility at Fordow. Entering its second week, Israel began the conflict through 'preemptive' airstrikes on several strategic sites in Iran, including nuclear facilities, missile bases and military command centres, followed with retaliation by the Gulf state. The US attack came despite Trump's promises to avoid joining another war in the region.
