2025 Super Bowl LIX odds: A brief history of the famous Octopus prop bet
There's a veritable sea of Super Bowl prop bets available at sportsbooks across the nation. So perhaps it's only natural that the Octopus has found its place in that ocean.
You might ask, "What's the Octopus?" Well, it's when a player scores a touchdown, then scores the subsequent two-point conversion. So one player scores eight points on the same drive. Get it?
Thankfully, Mitch Goldich did back in 2018, while working for Sports Illustrated. On a fine fall football Sunday, Goldich saw something that piqued his interest during the Carolina-Washington game. So he tweeted about it.
"There should be a cool name for what Torrey Smith just did. … What should we call this?"
Goldich's friend, Mike Wallace, suggested Octopus. And the legend of the Octopus has slowly grown ever since.
Eight-Point Play
It was Oct. 14, 2018. Carolina was on the road against Washington, and the Panthers trailed 20-9 in the fourth quarter. With 8:32 remaining, Torrey Smith caught a three-yard touchdown pass from Cam Newton, pulling the Panthers within five at 20-15.
An extra point would still have Carolina down four and needing a touchdown. So the Panthers went for two, and Newton again connected with Smith to make it 20-17. That prompted Goldich's tweet, his buddy's suggestion and, ultimately, another way to bet on the NFL.
Although it's not among the top-five or top-10 Super Bowl prop bets, the Octopus is gradually gaining in popularity with each passing championship game.
Annually, there's a lot of social media chatter about the Octopus.
"It's amazing. Honestly, I can't believe it," Goldich said. "It just began as this silly little thing, and it's grown to where it actually happened in the Super Bowl. And I was in the stadium!"
That was two years ago in Super Bowl LVII — which, like this year's Super Bowl LIX matchup — featured the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.
As was the case in that Carolina-Washington game, Super Bowl LVII played out in a way that created an Octopus opportunity. Trailing 35-27, the Eagles got a Jalen Hurts two-yard touchdown run with 5:15 remaining to draw within 35-33.
Going for two to tie the game was a no-brainer. And Hurts ultimately ran it in, securing the first-ever Super Bowl Octopus.
Philly still ended up losing 38-35 on a final-second field goal.
Flooded Inbox
Goldich celebrated among fans at State Farm Stadium because he made the Octopus Yes wager at +1400 (a $100 bet at those odds would profit $1,400). And while celebrating, he was flooded with texts, DMs and tags on social media linking to videos of people celebrating their winning Octopus bets.
Full Disclosure: I was one of those people, as shown here with fellow FOX Sports betting analyst Sam Panayotovich, among others.
"[That] year, both Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts had an Octopus in the regular season. Both teams had proven they could do it," Goldich said. "With the Tush Push [for Hurts], I felt really good about it happening if the Eagles were around the goal line."
Multiple sportsbooks have offered the Octopus for the Super Bowl the past few years. With the prop finally hitting two years ago, that only encouraged more books to offer the Yes/No prop. Some books now offer it throughout the playoffs.
"It's just funny that this silly little thing has caught on and spread," Goldich said.
Not The Sharpest Bet
Mind you, betting Yes on the Octopus is not something you'll see sharp bettors do. It's a square bet, no question. It rarely hits, and as noted above, it's only happened once in the Super Bowl. But when it does hit, the payout is sure nice.
"It's not for sharps, and you won't get rich betting on it," Goldich said. "But I look at it as: I hit it at 14/1 two years ago, so I can lose the bet 14 years in a row and still say I've broken even."
That's the perfect mindset for any long-shot Super Bowl prop — the Octopus among them.
"If you are just looking for some props to make the game more fun, then I do think this hits the mark," Goldich said. "Long before I invented the Octopus, I enjoyed watching games and thinking about situations where a team might go for a two-point conversion. And in recent years, teams have gotten more aggressive about it.
"So it's fun to have a bet where you can root for that throughout the game. And it's very exciting when a team lines up to go for two [points]."
As much as Goldich enjoys his creation, and the one Super Bowl win he's had because of it, he also enjoys the Octopus as a conversation starter.
"It's fun that the prop has a quirky name, and there are still plenty of people who haven't heard of it," he said. "You can tell friends you bet on an Octopus, and the people who know what that means may enjoy it.
"And the people who don't know what it means may say, 'Yeah, right.' And then you get to explain it to them."
Just Say Yes
There were nine Octopuses — or is it Octopi? — converted in the 2024-25 regular season. There have been none in the playoffs so far.
But worth noting: One of those nine conversions came from the Eagles. And that one wasn't from a Hurts Tush Push. Rather, it was from Saquon Barkley, in one of the season's lower-scoring games.
In Week 3, Philly gave up a touchdown at New Orleans to fall behind 12-7 with just 2:03 remaining. But barely a minute later, the Eagles took a 13-12 lead on a Barkley four-yard TD run.
With 1:01 on the clock — plenty of time for the Saints to mount a field-goal drive or better — the Eagles going for two was the obvious decision. Barkley converted it on a two-yard run for what, in fact, was the first Octopus of the season. Philadelphia won 15-12.
"Barkley having one earlier this year probably doesn't affect very much. I still think Hurts is more likely to get another one, given how much the Eagles use him at the goal line," Goldich said.
On the Super Bowl odds board, The SuperBook currently has this Yes/No prop at Yes +1600/No -6000.
So you can see why Yes would be popular with all the public and recreational bettors. A $100 Yes bet would land a $1,600 profit, while it would take a $6,000 bet on No just to win $100.
Said Goldich: "People do play the No, but that's not how I want to live my life."
I won't argue with that. I've bet on the Octopus every year since 2019, and I'm on Octopus Yes +1600 for Chiefs-Eagles.
For the second time in three years, let's hope eight is great.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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