Guy on Rocks: Almonty building into international tungsten industry

Guy on Rocks' is a Stockhead series looking at the significant happenings of the resources market each week. Former geologist and experienced stockbroker Guy Le Page, director, and responsible executive at Perth-based financial services provider RM Corporate Finance, shares his high conviction views on the market and his 'hot stocks to watch'.
This week, Guy looks into the coming metallic demands of humanoid robots before turning to a tungsten developer in Almonty Industries (ASX:AII) who has been making some big strides.
The company has been receiving some high valuations, so Guy looks into the tight tungsten market and the other factors that he thinks might be to Almonty's benefit as it continues construction of the Sandong tungsten mine in South Korea.
The views, information, or opinions expressed in this video are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of Stockhead.
Stockhead has not provided, endorsed or otherwise assumed responsibility for any financial product advice contained in this article. Viewers should obtain independent advice based on their own circumstances before making any financial decisions.

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The Australian

4 hours ago

• The Australian

AUC expands Kulin exploration ground

Ausgold expands Kulin landholding with farm-in to adjacent exploration licence E70/5077 Licence covers northern extension of the Yandina Thrust with exploration defining +3km gold anomaly Upcoming drilling will test high high-priority gold-in-soil and trenching anomalies Special Report: Ausgold has expanded the footprint of its Kulin project in WA after reaching a farm-in agreement to acquire a majority stake in an adjacent exploration licence highly prospective for gold. The 106km2 E70/5077 exploration licence covers the northern extension of the Yandina Thrust – a fertile structure hosting the nearby Griffins Find and Tampia gold mines. Geochemical sampling has defined a +3km long coherent +10ppb gold-in-soil anomaly with two central +50ppb 'bullseye' targets that have strike lengths of 600m each. Trenching over these bullseye targets returned results of 31m at 1g/t gold and 20m at 0.6g/t gold. Deep diamond holes drilled to test a 300m down-dip continuation of surface mineralisation returned up to 3m grading 2.37g/t gold from a down-hole depth of 341m. Mapping and auger sampling by Ausgold (ASX:AUC) within its wholly-owned tenure at Kulin, which is 75km north of the flagship Katanning gold project, identified a mineralised trend hosted within greenstone stratigraphy northeast and east of E70/5077. This newly defined trend represents a compelling exploration opportunity and will be the focus of further auger sampling in Q1 FY26, with the aim of delineating additional drill-ready targets across the broader region. Regional geological map highlighting the Critica farm-in tenure. Pic: Ausgold Farm-in agreement Under the farm-in agreement, the company can earn up to 70% in the exploration licence by first spending $250,000 within 18 months to earn an initial 51%. It can increase this to 70% by spending another $360,000 over the following 24 months. Once completed, the vendor Critica (ASX:CRI) will retain a 30% interest with the right to convert it into a 1.5% net smelter royalty at a decision to mine. 'The farm-in to E70/5077 is a strategic step in expanding our regional footprint across the eastern Katanning Greenstone Belt,' executive chairman John Dorward said. 'This new tenement complements our strong regional landholding surrounding our flagship Katanning gold project, which includes the Kulin project as well as other advanced exploration prospects such as Duggan and Nanicup Bridge-Zinger. 'This agreement directly aligns with our strategy to establish a regional production hub at the Katanning gold project, by discovering and developing high-quality, near-surface satellite deposits that can leverage our existing infrastructure and scale.' AUC will lodge the Program of Work in Q1 FY2026 and expects to start maiden drilling on the new licence in Q2 or Q3 FY2026. This will target high-priority gold-in-soil and trenching anomalies to unlock the project's discovery potential. This article was developed in collaboration with Ausgold, a Stockhead advertiser at the time of publishing. This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.

The Advertiser

5 hours ago

• The Advertiser

Shares slip, oil rises as investors weigh Iran outcomes

Shares have slipped in Asia and oil prices briefly hit five-month highs as investors anxiously wait to see if Iran will retaliate against US attacks on its nuclear sites, with resulting risks to global activity and inflation. Early moves were contained, with the dollar getting only a minor safe-haven bid and no sign of panic selling across markets. Oil prices were up about 2.8 per cent, but off their initial peaks. Optimists are hoping Iran might back down now its nuclear ambitions had been curtailed, or even that regime change might bring a less hostile government to power there. Analysts at JPMorgan, however, cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76 per cent and averaging a 30 per cent rise over time. Key will be access through the Strait of Hormuz, which is only about 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point and carries about a quarter of global oil trade and 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas supplies. "Selective disruptions that scare off oil tankers make more sense than closing the Strait of Hormuz given Iran's oil exports would be shut down too," said Vivek Dhar, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "In a scenario where Iran selectively disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, we see Brent oil reaching at least $100/bbl." For now, Brent was up a relatively restrained 2.7 per cent at $79.12 a barrel, while US crude rose 2.8 per cent to $75.98. Elsewhere in commodity markets, gold edged down 0.1 per cent to $3,363 an ounce. Share markets were proving resilient so far, with S&P 500 futures off a moderate 0.5 per cent and Nasdaq futures down 0.6 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.5, and Japan's Nikkei eased 0.9 per cent. EUROSTOXX 50 futures lost 0.7 per cent, while FTSE futures fell 0.5 per cent and DAX futures slipped 0.7 per cent. Europe and Japan are heavily reliant on imported oil and LNG, whereas the United States is a net exporter. The dollar edged up 0.3 per cent on the Japanese yen to 146.48 yen , while the euro dipped 0.3 per cent to $1.1481. The dollar index firmed 0.17 per cent to 99.078. There was also no sign of a rush to the traditional safety of Treasuries, with 10-year yields rising two basis points to 4.397 per cent. Futures for Federal Reserve interest rates were a tick lower, likely reflecting concerns a sustained rise in oil prices would add to inflationary pressures at a time when tariffs were just being felt in US prices. Markets are still pricing only a slim chance the Fed will cut at its next meeting on July 30, even after Fed governor Christopher Waller broke ranks and argued for a July easing. Most other Fed members, including chair Jerome Powell, have been more cautious on policy leading markets to wager a cut is far more likely in September. At least 15 Fed officials are speaking this week, and Powell faces two days of questions from lawmakers, which is certain to cover the potential impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs and the attack on Iran. The Middle East will be high on the agenda at a NATO leaders' meeting at the Hague this week, where most members have agreed to commit to a sharp rise in defence spending. Among the economic data due are figures on US core inflation and weekly jobless claims, along with early readings on June factory activity from across the globe. Shares have slipped in Asia and oil prices briefly hit five-month highs as investors anxiously wait to see if Iran will retaliate against US attacks on its nuclear sites, with resulting risks to global activity and inflation. Early moves were contained, with the dollar getting only a minor safe-haven bid and no sign of panic selling across markets. Oil prices were up about 2.8 per cent, but off their initial peaks. Optimists are hoping Iran might back down now its nuclear ambitions had been curtailed, or even that regime change might bring a less hostile government to power there. Analysts at JPMorgan, however, cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76 per cent and averaging a 30 per cent rise over time. Key will be access through the Strait of Hormuz, which is only about 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point and carries about a quarter of global oil trade and 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas supplies. "Selective disruptions that scare off oil tankers make more sense than closing the Strait of Hormuz given Iran's oil exports would be shut down too," said Vivek Dhar, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "In a scenario where Iran selectively disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, we see Brent oil reaching at least $100/bbl." For now, Brent was up a relatively restrained 2.7 per cent at $79.12 a barrel, while US crude rose 2.8 per cent to $75.98. Elsewhere in commodity markets, gold edged down 0.1 per cent to $3,363 an ounce. Share markets were proving resilient so far, with S&P 500 futures off a moderate 0.5 per cent and Nasdaq futures down 0.6 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.5, and Japan's Nikkei eased 0.9 per cent. EUROSTOXX 50 futures lost 0.7 per cent, while FTSE futures fell 0.5 per cent and DAX futures slipped 0.7 per cent. Europe and Japan are heavily reliant on imported oil and LNG, whereas the United States is a net exporter. The dollar edged up 0.3 per cent on the Japanese yen to 146.48 yen , while the euro dipped 0.3 per cent to $1.1481. The dollar index firmed 0.17 per cent to 99.078. There was also no sign of a rush to the traditional safety of Treasuries, with 10-year yields rising two basis points to 4.397 per cent. Futures for Federal Reserve interest rates were a tick lower, likely reflecting concerns a sustained rise in oil prices would add to inflationary pressures at a time when tariffs were just being felt in US prices. Markets are still pricing only a slim chance the Fed will cut at its next meeting on July 30, even after Fed governor Christopher Waller broke ranks and argued for a July easing. Most other Fed members, including chair Jerome Powell, have been more cautious on policy leading markets to wager a cut is far more likely in September. At least 15 Fed officials are speaking this week, and Powell faces two days of questions from lawmakers, which is certain to cover the potential impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs and the attack on Iran. The Middle East will be high on the agenda at a NATO leaders' meeting at the Hague this week, where most members have agreed to commit to a sharp rise in defence spending. Among the economic data due are figures on US core inflation and weekly jobless claims, along with early readings on June factory activity from across the globe. Shares have slipped in Asia and oil prices briefly hit five-month highs as investors anxiously wait to see if Iran will retaliate against US attacks on its nuclear sites, with resulting risks to global activity and inflation. Early moves were contained, with the dollar getting only a minor safe-haven bid and no sign of panic selling across markets. Oil prices were up about 2.8 per cent, but off their initial peaks. Optimists are hoping Iran might back down now its nuclear ambitions had been curtailed, or even that regime change might bring a less hostile government to power there. Analysts at JPMorgan, however, cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76 per cent and averaging a 30 per cent rise over time. Key will be access through the Strait of Hormuz, which is only about 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point and carries about a quarter of global oil trade and 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas supplies. "Selective disruptions that scare off oil tankers make more sense than closing the Strait of Hormuz given Iran's oil exports would be shut down too," said Vivek Dhar, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "In a scenario where Iran selectively disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, we see Brent oil reaching at least $100/bbl." For now, Brent was up a relatively restrained 2.7 per cent at $79.12 a barrel, while US crude rose 2.8 per cent to $75.98. Elsewhere in commodity markets, gold edged down 0.1 per cent to $3,363 an ounce. Share markets were proving resilient so far, with S&P 500 futures off a moderate 0.5 per cent and Nasdaq futures down 0.6 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.5, and Japan's Nikkei eased 0.9 per cent. EUROSTOXX 50 futures lost 0.7 per cent, while FTSE futures fell 0.5 per cent and DAX futures slipped 0.7 per cent. Europe and Japan are heavily reliant on imported oil and LNG, whereas the United States is a net exporter. The dollar edged up 0.3 per cent on the Japanese yen to 146.48 yen , while the euro dipped 0.3 per cent to $1.1481. The dollar index firmed 0.17 per cent to 99.078. There was also no sign of a rush to the traditional safety of Treasuries, with 10-year yields rising two basis points to 4.397 per cent. Futures for Federal Reserve interest rates were a tick lower, likely reflecting concerns a sustained rise in oil prices would add to inflationary pressures at a time when tariffs were just being felt in US prices. Markets are still pricing only a slim chance the Fed will cut at its next meeting on July 30, even after Fed governor Christopher Waller broke ranks and argued for a July easing. Most other Fed members, including chair Jerome Powell, have been more cautious on policy leading markets to wager a cut is far more likely in September. At least 15 Fed officials are speaking this week, and Powell faces two days of questions from lawmakers, which is certain to cover the potential impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs and the attack on Iran. The Middle East will be high on the agenda at a NATO leaders' meeting at the Hague this week, where most members have agreed to commit to a sharp rise in defence spending. Among the economic data due are figures on US core inflation and weekly jobless claims, along with early readings on June factory activity from across the globe. Shares have slipped in Asia and oil prices briefly hit five-month highs as investors anxiously wait to see if Iran will retaliate against US attacks on its nuclear sites, with resulting risks to global activity and inflation. Early moves were contained, with the dollar getting only a minor safe-haven bid and no sign of panic selling across markets. Oil prices were up about 2.8 per cent, but off their initial peaks. Optimists are hoping Iran might back down now its nuclear ambitions had been curtailed, or even that regime change might bring a less hostile government to power there. Analysts at JPMorgan, however, cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76 per cent and averaging a 30 per cent rise over time. Key will be access through the Strait of Hormuz, which is only about 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point and carries about a quarter of global oil trade and 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas supplies. "Selective disruptions that scare off oil tankers make more sense than closing the Strait of Hormuz given Iran's oil exports would be shut down too," said Vivek Dhar, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "In a scenario where Iran selectively disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, we see Brent oil reaching at least $100/bbl." For now, Brent was up a relatively restrained 2.7 per cent at $79.12 a barrel, while US crude rose 2.8 per cent to $75.98. Elsewhere in commodity markets, gold edged down 0.1 per cent to $3,363 an ounce. Share markets were proving resilient so far, with S&P 500 futures off a moderate 0.5 per cent and Nasdaq futures down 0.6 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.5, and Japan's Nikkei eased 0.9 per cent. EUROSTOXX 50 futures lost 0.7 per cent, while FTSE futures fell 0.5 per cent and DAX futures slipped 0.7 per cent. Europe and Japan are heavily reliant on imported oil and LNG, whereas the United States is a net exporter. The dollar edged up 0.3 per cent on the Japanese yen to 146.48 yen , while the euro dipped 0.3 per cent to $1.1481. The dollar index firmed 0.17 per cent to 99.078. There was also no sign of a rush to the traditional safety of Treasuries, with 10-year yields rising two basis points to 4.397 per cent. Futures for Federal Reserve interest rates were a tick lower, likely reflecting concerns a sustained rise in oil prices would add to inflationary pressures at a time when tariffs were just being felt in US prices. Markets are still pricing only a slim chance the Fed will cut at its next meeting on July 30, even after Fed governor Christopher Waller broke ranks and argued for a July easing. Most other Fed members, including chair Jerome Powell, have been more cautious on policy leading markets to wager a cut is far more likely in September. At least 15 Fed officials are speaking this week, and Powell faces two days of questions from lawmakers, which is certain to cover the potential impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs and the attack on Iran. The Middle East will be high on the agenda at a NATO leaders' meeting at the Hague this week, where most members have agreed to commit to a sharp rise in defence spending. Among the economic data due are figures on US core inflation and weekly jobless claims, along with early readings on June factory activity from across the globe.

ABC News

5 hours ago

• ABC News

What the Israel-Iran war means for oil prices and the cost of goods

As Israel and Iran, now joined by the US, escalate from conflict to war, the price of oil is rising. Energy and fuel costs, food prices, and spending on infrastructure and welfare programs will likely be affected, says a leading economics researcher. This means higher prices for consumers across Asia. For Asian nations, there is no real alternative to oil from the Gulf states, meaning volatility in that region is likely to cause pressure thousands of kilometres away. Indo-Pacific countries who rely on oil imports would have to spend more, but many do not have the resources to keep borrowing without cutting spending in other areas," said Joaquin Vespignani, associate professor in finance at the University of Tasmania. "For the average person ... inflation will increase significantly, while income may decline. So, you have a double whammy there,' he said. Prices have already increased 3 per cent following the US's bombing of an Iranian nuclear site. A squeeze on oil supplies could have serious ramifications for countries such as Indonesia which have provided fuel subsidies. ( Reuters: Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana ) Are oil prices likely to rise more? Yes, according to Dr Vespignani. In the initial stages of the Israel-Iran war, markets reacted with a 5 per cent "risk premium", he said. 'Forecasts under high-risk scenarios suggest Brent could exceed $US100 per barrel if supply from Iran is disrupted and strategic transport routes are compromised. 'If the United States becomes further involved, especially through direct engagement or enhanced sanctions on Iranian crude exports, we could see a significant and sustained rise in oil prices into 2025.'' How will that affect the Indo-Pacific? 'The impact could be very significant,'' said Dr Vespignani. 'India, Indonesia, and most Southeast Asian nations are highly dependent on imported oil, much of it sourced from the Middle East.'' India imports about 85 per cent of its crude oil, Indonesia imports about 60 per cent, and Southeast Asia imports more than 70 per cent. Countries like Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam are heavily exposed to price increases. 'If prices rise by $US10–20/barrel over a sustained period, this would widen current account deficits, increase fuel subsidies, and feed into broader inflation,' said Dr Vespignani. Joaquin Vespignani said the Indo-Pacific would be significantly affected by any price rises or interruption to supplies from the oil-producing Gulf states. ( Supplied ) In India, for example, a 25 per cent increase in global oil prices would raise its oil import bill by an estimated $US30–40 billion annually, placing substantial pressure on the current account deficit, the rupee and domestic inflation. Indonesia would face similar pressure. The burden on the state budget due to fuel subsidies could substantially increase the deficit or force a reallocation of spending from infrastructure and welfare programs. Dr Vespignani said countries with little room to move with finances and external vulnerabilities would be forced to choose between inflation control, currency stability, and managing sustainable debt. '[This] could also slow economic growth, reduce disposable incomes, and create new pressures on government finances — particularly in economies still recovering from COVID-19 and global food price inflation,' he said. Oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz ( Reuters: Hamad I Mohammed ) What happens if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz? Iran has approved a move to close the Strait of Hormuz, which still requires sign off from the Supreme National Security Council, a body led by an appointee of Ali Khamenei. The step is widely seen as Iran's most effective threat to hurt the West. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil chokepoint — about 20 per cent of global oil flows pass through it. Analysts agree if Iran were to block or significantly restrict shipping, the immediate result would be a major supply shock. The price of crude oil could surge well above $US90–105 per barrel depending on the duration and severity of the blockade, said Dr Vespignani. 'India, Indonesia, and most Southeast Asian countries would be among the hardest hit due to their geographic proximity and trade links to Gulf producers,' he said. 'Refiners in these countries would face delays, higher freight and insurance costs, and ultimately be forced to pass on costs to consumers.'' Any squeeze on oil supplies would mean 'higher costs for fuel, electricity, and transport — with downstream effects on food and manufacturing prices.'' Are there alternatives to Middle East oil? 'There are no immediate short-term alternatives that can fully offset a severe supply disruption,' said Dr Vespignani. He said strategic reserves can provide some buffer but these are relatively small and would only cover a few weeks of demand. 'In the absence of substitution options, higher prices will be required to reduce demand — potentially weakening growth and amplifying inflation pressures across the Indo-Pacific.''