Iran-Israel conflict: what it means for Pakistan

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The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has taken a heavy human toll in Iran and some in the Israel. How could this conflict affect Pakistan? Iran, after all, is one of the four neighbors of Pakistan. The other three are Afghanistan, China and India. It is only with China that Pakistan has good relations. It is cooperating with Beijing in several areas, including defence production. Pakistan is also partnering with China to build a regional communication network. That Israel was well informed about the targets that it hit resulted in the deaths of Mohammad Bagheri, the chief Iranian military staff and three other top military generals. Israel has also assassinated two top nuclear scientists.
It is obvious that the Jewish state was helped by those Iranian who oppose the clerics' regime in their country. As one observer put it, when the senior people in Tehran meet, you can't be sure whether the person sitting next to you works as a spy for Israel. When the Israelis began their campaign against Tehran on June 13, it was obvious that the targets hit were well selected, with information coming from those who worked as spies for the Jewish state. Video footage from Tehran confirmed the precision of the attacks – showing one floor of an apartment building hit, for example, but not others. The hit apartment housed the person the Israelis wished to kill.
Even after the devastating attacks in Lebanon on Hezbollah – a Tehran ally that had a large supply of armaments meant to be used against Israel – Tehran has not lost all of its allies. The Al-Qaeda affiliate in Yemen may pose a special danger for those who are supporting Israel and the latter's activities in the Middle East. It is likely to pose a special danger to Israeli supporters.
The group is headed by Assa bin Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki, who posted a chilling video. The video named several people who should be targeted for assassination. These included President Donald Trump, Vic President JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and former DOGE chief Elon Musk. "There are no red lines after all that has been happening to our people in Gaza," he said in the message. According to The Jerusalem Post, an Israeli newspaper, Awlaki urged all Muslims in America and Europe to make sure there is "not a single safe place in the world for Jews".
David Ignatius, who contributes to The Washington Post, wrote in his column published by the newspaper on June 14, 2025, "Israel's tactical mastery is unquestionable. But in this latest assault on Iran – as in earlier campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen – Israel appears to have given relatively little thought to 'its day after' ambitions. Does Israel seek regime change in Iran, to permanently bend Iran away from its revolutionary course? That appears to be Netanyahu's message in a June 13, 2025, televised pitch to the Iranian people. 'This is your opportunity to stand and let your voices be heard,' he said. But there is a danger of overreach. Netanyahu may have to settle for a strike that will neuter the Iranian nuclear threat for a few more years but set up a future conflagration."
Gerry Shih and Susannah George, who also cover the Middle East for the Post, wrote that "the Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear and military sites, along with the targeted killing of at least a dozen senior military officials and scientists, represents the latest sign of Israel's shift away from a decades-old policy favoring containment, restraint and short wars."
They continued with their analysis by highlighting that "in the past 20 months, the Israeli Defense Force has occupied territory and carried out frequent airstrikes in neighboring Lebanon and Syria, reflecting what Israeli military officials say is a new border security doctrine. Netanyahu has vowed not to cease the military campaign in Gaza until he achieves total victory over Hamas, displaying tolerance for prolonged conflicts that runs against traditional Israeli strategic thinking."
Aaron David Miller, who has advised seven US secretaries of state on the Middle East, said there has been a shift within the Israeli security establishment which now appears comfortable with leading Israel as a "regional hegemon".
In 2020, for instance, Netanyahu declined to participate in a US operation that resulted in the assassination of Maj Gen Qasem Soleimani, Iran's top military commander. Netanyahu "was very risk averse, very reluctant to use force," said Miller who dealt with Netanyahu over a long career at the State Department. "He was always one step forward, two steps to the side, one step back. Now he's become risk ready."
Since Netanyahu lunched the operation known as the 'Rising Lion', he is not in favour of the Trump administration and Iran to return to the negotiating table. After carrying out operations in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel has blocked the new government in Syria which assumed control in December 2024 from establishing itself as a military power. It has launched hundreds of airstrikes on strategic stockpiles and demanded that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa demilitarise an entire region running south of Damascus to the Israeli border.
According to Danny Citrinowicz, a former military Israeli military intelligence official who specialises in Iran and the regional allies, "when you don't have Syria, when Hamas is nonexistent, and without Hezbollah, you can do almost whatever you want." But he warned that Israel had not done enough long-term planning beyond the immediate use of force. "So we expand attacks into Iran's energy sector, so we fight a war of attrition that never ends. And then what?" Miller, the former State Department official, said that Netanyahu had demonstrated Israel's military superiority and his willingness to use it, but his Arab neighbours wanted to see him turn that into lasting stability. "The more Netanyahu is on a course in which he's not going to translate his escalation dominance into more stable arrangements or peace deals, the more wary the neighbors will become."
China is working with Pakistan to develop plans to expand CPEC, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, into Afghanistan and Iran. Eventually the road network would extend to the countries of Central Asia that were once part of the dissolved Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the USSR. This would make it possible for China to tap and transport minerals from the area to feed its rapidly expanding industrial system. With the possible participation of the United States in the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, these plans would be disrupted.

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