UK twice as likely to have hot summer this year, says Met Office
The UK is twice as likely as usual to have a hot summer this year, the Met Office has predicted, warning that there is also an increased risk of heatwaves.
The predictions follow the country's sunniest spring on record, with the UK clocking up 630 hours of sunshine since the start of March, in what has also been the driest spring for more than a century.
Temperatures soared to 8C above the average for the time of year on Saturday – the last day of meteorological spring – before a potentially hot summer season.
Heathrow, in west London, experienced the hottest weather on Saturday, at 26.7C, while levels of grass pollen were very high in the south-east of England.
The Met Office said: 'While the current three-month outlook shows an increased chance of a hot summer, the temperature signals for this summer are similar to those for recent years and consistent with our warming climate.'
The predictions come from the Met Office's three-month outlook for June, July and August, which provides risk assessments for unusual temperatures, rainfall and wind for government contingency planners and businesses. It is based on an assessment of broad weather patterns across the whole of the UK and factors in recent global weather trends.
Nicola Maxey, a spokesperson for the Met Office, said: 'It's not produced as a public forecast for people to look at and work out whether we can have a barbecue in August or a garden party in July.
'At this time of year, global signals influencing UK weather are typically weak,' she added. 'However, consistent with our warming climate and as we have seen over recent years, the current outlook indicates an increased likelihood of above-average temperatures this summer. This is not a guarantee of prolonged hot weather or heatwaves; while we could see more hot days and warm nights than usual, we could also see a mix of cooler days and less extreme warmth.'
The outlook shows it is 2.3 times more likely than normal that the UK will be hot over meteorological summer, which begins on 1 June and ends on 31 August. The average temperatures across the UK over those months range from 10-17C, with the south-east of England experiencing the higher averages of 16-17C.
This would be in line with a recent trend of unusually hot summers. The last time the UK experienced a 'cool' summer was in 2015.
The ongoing extreme marine heatwave in north-west European waters – sea surface temperatures around UK coastlines are 1.5-2.5C warmer than average – may further boost temperatures, although the added warmth and moisture in the air could potentially lead to more intense summer storms.
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The latest outlook also shows the levels of rainfall and wind speed for the next three months are likely to be near average. Many water companies will be hoping for a wet summer to help avoid the need for water usage restrictions. This week, the Environment Agency declared drought status for the north-west of England following the driest start to spring in 69 years, with many reservoirs in the region at historic low levels for the time of year.
Summers in the UK have become warmer, wetter and sunnier in recent decades due to climate change, according to the Met Office's State of the UK Climate report.
Observations show that extremes of temperature in the UK have been affected much more than average temperature. The number of 'hot' days (28C) more than doubled and 'very hot' days (30C) more than tripled for 2014-23 compared with 1961-90. Extreme weather events such as the 2022 heatwave, when temperatures in England surpassed 40C for the first time, were made more likely by climate change and are expected to become more common in future.
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Eating dinner at 10pm is nothing short of pyschopathic
Almost everything about Covid was bad, obviously. The virus itself, the pain it inflicted across the world, the restrictions on individual liberty, and the banging of pots with wooden spoons on our doorsteps every Thursday evening (astonishing to think this is the country that came up with Magna Carta, and yet over 800 years later we'd regressed to the point where we decided to show our appreciation by behaving like deranged toddlers with a set of kitchen equipment). On the other hand, it shifted our body clocks forward a bit, did it not? It did for me, anyway. Pre-Covid, an 8pm table booking was no problem. Splendid, in fact. Dinner out with friends, nothing could be lovelier. Post-Covid, it seemed mad. Practically wanton. Be out at that time, away from my home? Only sitting down for dinner at 8pm? What is this, Spain? Now, if I'm meeting pals for supper, I generally try to get away with a 7.30 booking, although ideally 7pm. That allows plenty of time for chit-chat but means we can still be in bed by 10. If friends are coming over for dinner, I often say to them airily 'any time from 6.30' in the hope this means I might be tucked up with my book even earlier. At any sign of lingering over the coffee and bag of Minstrels, I start loading the dishwasher. It's enormously relaxed, an evening with me. Last November, while having dinner with friends in New York – 'the city that never sleeps' – I practically fell asleep at the table because our reservation was for 9pm (although I suspect jet lag and the three margaritas before dinner didn't help matters much). But a friend across the pond says there's been a more general shift to earlier eating even there. And yet there remain among us a good number of psychopaths who want to eat at 10.30pm, or even later. I'm not referring to our southern European friends; various London restaurants have recently announced that they're opening reservation slots for later tables. Mountain, a Soho restaurant where I once tried tripe (not for me), is now offering punters the chance of a slot at 10.30pm. Tomos Parry, the co-founder and chef of Brat, a very trendy Shoreditch restaurant, says he's noticed late-night diners creeping back. If you fancy a plate of extremely spicy noodles, you can book a table at Speedboat Bar, an excellent Thai restaurant also in Soho, until 12.30am on Friday and Saturday nights. This has been hailed as a 'late-night dining revolution', which I don't remember Marx banging on about much. Restaurateurs are, naturally, delighted. Times are hard, getting punters in to eat is challenging, especially when everyone's on the fat jabs, so if they can keep throwing out plates until the wee hours for those who do want to eat, so much the better. Jeremy King, restaurant impresario, has recently unveiled a new late-night menu at his new-ish joints, The Park and Arlington. Book a table after 9.45pm and you get 25 per cent off. Notably, these are all fairly central London restaurants, and I wonder how many of their late-night clientele live reasonably close. Or at least only one zone away. Well-heeled sorts who don't baulk at the price of fillet steak and can totter home or hail a black cab for a fare under a tenner. Because if you book a table at 10.30pm, you're not going to be heading home much before midnight. The trains have stopped running back to my parts by then. There's the odd night bus if I don't mind two hours crawling southwards, or it'll be a £50 Uber. Bed by 1am, maybe, which isn't hugely practical if you have to work for a living, or have small children, or a small and unruly terrier who demands his first outing to the park at 6am. That's to say nothing of the potential digestion issues. I don't wish to be indelicate, but can one get a good night's kip if you hit the pillow with a stomach full of tripe after midnight? As Pepys himself once surmised: 'I did eat very late at night, which I perceive makes me feel heavy and sleepy.' Quite. Experts quoted in health articles constantly extol the health benefits of intermittent fasting, or restricting one's eating to an eight- or 10-hour window. But good luck with that if you're swallowing your last mouthful of crispy egg noodles after Cinderella's curfew. No more for you until at least lunchtime the following day. Many years ago, one late night as a teenager, I sat across a table from a boy I had a crush on in a restaurant called Vingt-Quatre on the Fulham Road. It had opened in 1995, London's first 24-hour restaurant, and the novelty was thrilling. The novelty of sitting near a boy, I mean, although the restaurant was pretty thrilling too. We shared a burger and the bill came with a small pot of Smarties, which seemed the height of ironic decadence. He paid and afterwards walked me back through the dark streets of Chelsea to put me on the N137 home to Stockwell, so it was a relatively chaste evening. Not the sort of thing that gets poets excited. But it felt practically Byronic to me – the late night, the Smarties, the slow meander to the Sloane Street bus stop. I swooned about it for months once safely back at boarding school. I understand it, in other words. I understand that late-night dining can be exciting, and romantic, possibly even a little dangerous if your alarm is going off soon. But my appetite for danger must have waned in the intervening 23 years because dicey behaviour these days means going to sleep after 11pm. Perhaps this is more to do with age than Covid. Or both. Still, if restaurants are increasingly catering for daredevils who wish to risk indigestion and trapped wind, those of us who prefer 7pm tables may stand more of a chance. Or maybe even 6.30pm. Could you make 6.30?
