Donald Trump's Pledge of No New Wars Runs Into Reality of Middle East
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President Donald Trump entered office vowing to bring a swift end to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. Five months in, foreign conflicts are now threatening to overshadow Trump's second term as a new war escalates between Israel and Iran and concerns grow that the United States could soon take an active role in fighting Tehran.
Trump referred to himself as an anti-war president upon his return to the White House and even argued that his efforts to broker peace around the world deserved a Nobel Peace prize.
But the Israel-Iran conflict has highlighted Trump's challenge in shaping foreign affairs while maintaining political support at home with the isolationist and ascendent MAGA wing of the Republican Party.
"Trump has found that making peace is hard," said Richard Gowan, the UN director of the International Crisis Group.
A Marine stands outside the West Wing of the White House on June 17, 2025 in Washington, DC.
A Marine stands outside the West Wing of the White House on June 17, 2025 in Washington, DC.That reality has quickly set in as Trump considers what role the U.S. should play in the strikes Israel launched against Iran last week to end Tehran's nuclear program. Israel has targeted Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities, including the fortified site at Fordow, but most experts believe it can't destroy the underground compound without special U.S. bunker-busting bombs that can only be flown by American military aircraft.
"In the case of Iran, if the U.S. goes in that would be a massive show of military force," Gowan said. "But it could also end up with Trump getting sucked into a Middle East quagmire, which is exactly what he accused his predecessors of doing."
Trump signaled Tuesday that the U.S. may join Israel in a direct strike against Iran, though he has also said that Tehran still wants to strike a nuclear deal with the U.S. despite missing a recent White House-imposed deadline to reach an agreement.
In social media posts throughout the day, Trump called for Iran's "unconditional surrender" and suggested that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could be targeted for assassination.
"We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least for now," Trump said Tuesday in one message on Truth Social, suggesting the U.S. knows his location.
The threat is a contrast from Trump's rhetoric in his first weeks back in the White House, when he promised to make good on a campaign pledge to disentangle America from foreign conflicts even as he launched trade wars that roiled the global economy.
Trump touted the start of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine as an early victory, but the talks have since failed to make any significant progress toward ending that war. Israel ramped up its military operations in Gaza in the months since Trump took office, coinciding with an increase in violent conflicts on Trump's watch, according to a report released Tuesday by the Institute for Economics and Peace.
Smoke rises over Tehran, Iran after a reported Israeli strike on June 16, 2025.
Smoke rises over Tehran, Iran after a reported Israeli strike on June 16, 2025.
Stringer/Getty Images
There are 59 active conflicts between nation states, an increase from last year and the most since World War II, according to the institute's 2025 Global Peace Index.
Of course, Trump isn't the first U.S. president to see his domestic agenda updated by foreign affairs beyond his control. Trump's recent predecessors — from former Presidents George W. Bush to Joe Biden — also became directly or indirectly enmeshed in foreign wars. But Trump's situation is somewhat unique, given the growing foreign policy divide among lawmakers in his own party.
Joining Israel's fight with Iran would anger MAGA hardliners and drive a wedge between them and establishment Republicans who want Tehran to end its push to develop nuclear weapons.
"Trump's supporters are in different places. Some, like [Rep.] Marjorie Taylor Greene, are saying you can't be part of Make America Great Again if you go to war in the Middle East," said Daniel Byman, the director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "But other voices in the Republican Party see Iran's nuclear program as a major threat to U.S. national security."
Beyond the domestic politics, Trump's calculus is further complicated by Israel's increasingly aggressive posture towards Iran.
Israel may not be willing to back down if the U.S. pushes for a quick end to hostilities to avoid a broader regional war, Middle East analysts who spoke to Newsweek said. And there is no guarantee Trump could swiftly end the conflict by having the U.S. join Israel in the war, said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
"When a country has spent years enriching uranium like Iran has, you need some sort of diplomatic agreement that leads to mechanics verifying that everything has been locked down or destroyed," Katulis said. "There's no fool-proof military solution."
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Though a lot can change with Trump's tariff and trade policy in the coming weeks and months, its current design points to a modest bump in the 2026 COLA. On paper, a fifth consecutive year where COLAs are above average (compared to the previous 16 years) probably sounds great. With the average retired-worker payout cresting $2,000 per month, an added $50 per month would be welcome in 2026. But the fact of the matter is that a 0.3% bump in COLA estimates since Trump introduced his tariff and trade policy doesn't remotely move the needle when it comes to what retirees have been shortchanged for more than a decade. Though the CPI-W is designed to be an all-encompassing measure of inflation, it has an inherent flaw that can be seen in its full name. Specifically, it tracks the spending habits of "urban wage earners and clerical workers," who, in many instances, are working-age Americans not currently receiving a Social Security benefit. Urban wage earners and clerical workers spend their money very differently than seniors. Whereas the former has a higher percentage of their monthly budgets devoted to things like education, apparel, and transportation, seniors spend a higher percentage on shelter and medical care services. Even though an overwhelming majority of Social Security beneficiaries are aged 62 and above, the CPI-W doesn't factor in this added importance of shelter and medical care services inflation. The end result for retirees has been a persistent decline in the buying power of a Social Security dollar. According to a study conducted by TSCL, the purchasing power of a Social Security dollar has dropped by 20% since 2010. A very modest "Trump bump" isn't going to offset this. What's more, the aforementioned two costs that matter most to retirees -- shelter and medical care services -- have had higher trailing-12-month (TTM) inflation rates than the annually issued Social Security COLA. The BLS inflation report for May showed TTM increases of 3.9% for shelter and 3% for medical care services, respectively. As long as the program's cost-of-living adjustment trails the annual inflation rate for these two key expenses, retirees will continue getting the short end of the stick. If you're like most Americans, you're a few years (or more) behind on your retirement savings. But a handful of little-known could help ensure a boost in your retirement income. One easy trick could pay you as much as $23,760 more... each year! Once you learn how to maximize your Social Security benefits, we think you could retire confidently with the peace of mind we're all after. Join Stock Advisor to learn more about these Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Social Security's 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Estimate Is Getting a "Trump Bump" -- Here's How Much Extra You Might Receive was originally published by The Motley Fool
