The move to war readiness requires more than good intentions
It led to a relevant conversation with a friend who remembered visiting HM Naval Base Devonport as a 17-year-old Royal Navy reservist and seeing first-hand the battle scars on HMS Avenger following her return from service in the Falklands war. For him, it made very real the reality of the UK's involvement in that conflict, and it was an example that returned to me when reading the SDR.
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The task force deployed to the Falkland Islands for the conflict comprised a staggering 127 ships, which included 69 Naval and Royal Fleet auxiliary assets. The balance was made up by requisitioned Merchant Navy vessels including cruise liners, ferries, cargo ships, freighters, tankers and tugs.
The planning and capacity for readiness for war is a sharp reality check.
Overall, the SDR can be commended for the solid ambition it lays out for our defence strategy. Notable statements that evidence an honest review and sharp conclusions include the statement of a commitment to NATO first but not NATO only, and the focus on a move for our Armed Forces from "joint" to "integrated" that suggests a breaking down of any existing silos between the three branches of our Armed Forces to deliver 'a more lethal and agile combat force'.
From an industrial strategy perspective, the Prime Minister's introduction states an aim to 'drive a new partnership with industry and a radical reform of procurement, creating jobs, wealth, and opportunity in every corner of our country'.
As an ambition, this is music to the ears of every company large and small either currently supplying UK defence or aspiring to do so. The "defence dividend" for UK companies can be a catalyst to drive skills, equipment and infrastructure benefits that will deliver increasing social and economic benefits for communities.
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In addition, it can bring innovation and cost efficiencies in defence procurement, new export opportunities for industry, and crucially build greater capacity for defence delivery in the unfortunate instance that we move from readiness for warfighting to being on a war footing.
If the SDR gets a solid pass mark for ambition, for me its challenge is that there is a lack of evidence that it goes beyond warm words and good intentions. There are a lot of detailed recommendations (sixty-two to be pedantic) within its 144 pages that are hard to tally with last week's spending review which confirms an average annual real growth in the defence budget from 2023/24 to 2028/29 of just 3.6%.
The "defence dividend" and crucial capacity increase will only come from the reality of contracts that crystallise demand, flows down the supply chain, and enables long-term planning for investment with all its benefits. Having demand gets us through the first gate, the second is turning the PM's statement of ambition for procurement reform and reduced regulatory burden into a reality, to ensure that these opportunities meet the aim to make defence more accessible and transparent for small to medium-sized enterprises.
Whilst the investment of £6 billion for six or more "always on" energetics and munitions factories is certainly new, statements for the attack submarine fleet expansion feel like a bit of overlap with existing programmes and a recycling of the intent announced under the AUKUS partnership, which itself is apparently under review by the Trump administration as part of its 'America first' agenda.
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This, combined with a notable absence of mention for the continuation programmes for conventional naval ships, highlights a lack of detail which makes it difficult to delineate the new from continuation.
Companies – large or small – cannot initiate the investment that extends capacity and so builds capability, on warm words and good intentions. The well-argued statements of the need to be ready for warfighting have to be backed by action – and contracts – that enable that chain of activity and investment to deliver growth in defence capacity.
This will not happen overnight of course, but to match the stark realities and ambitions outlined in the SDR we are surely on a critical path. I look forward to the publication of the defence industrial strategy which will hopefully provide further insight and direction for our engineering and manufacturing sector in Scotland on how they can contribute to the national effort.
Paul Sheerin is chief executive of Scottish Engineering.
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