Category 4 Hurricane Erick Close To Landfall With A Familiar Story

Satellite image of Hurricane Erick on the morning of June 19, 2025.
Hurricane Erick is expected to make landfall later this morning. In fact, by the time I finish writing this piece, the eye may have breached the Mexican coastline. At the time of writing around 7 am EDT, the hurricane was rated as a powerful Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. It was moving towards the region of Acapulco and Puerto Angel at 9 mph Here is the latest information about this major hurricane and expected impacts.
Hurricane Erick on the verge of landfall on June 19, 2025.
Hurricane Watches and Warnings are up along the Mexican coast. During the early morning hours of June 19, 2025, the National Hurricane Center wrote, 'On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to make landfall in the western portion of the Mexican state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Guerrero within the next few hours, and then continue inland over southern Mexico later today.' Though the storm is expected to weaken after landfall, impacts will be felt well inland.
Those impacts will include up to a foot or more of rainfall in the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero and significant totals in surrounding regions. Dangerous flooding and mudslides, particularly within steep terrain, are likely. Additionally, extreme winds typical of a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) will impact the coasts and regions inland. NHC cautioned, "Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater." To the right of the eye, life-threatening storm surge will produce coastal flooding, large waves, swells, and rip currents.
Expected rainfall from Hurricane Erick.
Yesterday morning I warned, 'The forecast ultimately puts Erick at Category 2 level, but I would not rule out slightly higher intensity.' As expected, Hurricane Erick rapidly intensified, which means it gained at least 35 mph of sustained wind speed in less than 24 hours. This is a familiar story with landfalling hurricanes. Meteorologists Chris Dolce, Jon Erdman, and Johnathan Beiles wrote, 'Erick rapidly intensified from a 40 mph tropical storm Tuesday morning to Cat 4 intensity at midnight Thursday morning.' According to The Weather Channel experts, 'Erick may be the first known Cat 4 E. Pacific hurricane to landfall in Mexico prior to October in records dating to the late 1950s.'
Because of the physical properties of water, stronger hurricanes are typically not expected until later in the season. However, the sea surface temperatures, wind shear patterns, and moisture have been optimal for Erick's intensification. Studies continue to link warmer ocean temperatures or marine heatwaves to recent rapid intensification. Rapid intensification is problematic because it shortens the window for preparation of such powerful storms.
Sea surface temperature anomalies near the Mexican coast are warmer than normal.

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