Khamenei assassination could draw Hezbollah into Israel-Iran war, say sources
Hezbollah may join the war between Israel and Iran if the United States intervenes directly, or if Iran's supreme leader is killed, sources close to the Lebanese group have told Middle East Eye.
On 14 June, Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah lawmaker, stated: 'Iran knows how to defend itself.'
The comments were widely interpreted in Lebanese political circles as a sign that the war-weary group did not want to intervene in support of its Iranian allies. A Hezbollah official also told Reuters last week that the group 'will not initiate an attack on Israel in response to strikes on Iran'.
However, sources close to the party have said to MEE that the Reuters report is inaccurate.
One source said that Hezbollah had ideological 'red lines', namely direct American military involvement in the war, or the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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Those scenarios would 'shift the calculations' and may push the group into the conflict. The source would not be drawn on exactly what that role in the war would look like.
A senior Iranian official echoed one of the red lines, saying to Al Jazeera that Hezbollah would intervene if Washington did so.
Both the red lines have been hinted at by US President Donald Trump in recent days.
CBS reported that Trump had approved plans to directly attack Iran, but had not yet made a final decision on it.
On Khamenei, the president said on Tuesday that Washington knew where the supreme leader was, but would not kill him 'for now'.
'Existential battle'
The Axis of Resistance - a group of non-state actors across the region allied to Iran - sees the current conflict as an 'existential battle', a second source close to Hezbollah told MEE.
Ali Rizk, a Lebanese security analyst and expert on Hezbollah, said that the killing of Khamenei, taken in isolation, would not necessarily pose an existential threat to Hezbollah.
'It's quite likely Hezbollah would intervene should the regime's survival be at stake'
– Ali Rizk, Lebanese security analyst
'I think what the existential threat for Hezbollah would be is for the Islamic Republic to be destroyed,' Rizk told MEE. 'It's quite likely Hezbollah would intervene should the regime's survival be at stake.
'Hezbollah's relations to Iran are linked. There's an ideological level, not just Shia, but Wilayat al-Faqih,' he said, referring to a doctrine in Shia Islam that governments should be led by Islamic jurists who have the highest levels of expertise.
Rizk added that if the US became involved militarily, the conflict could 'snowball towards regime change', which most likely would draw Hezbollah into getting involved.
'Support front' like Gaza and Syria wars
Tom Barrack, the US special envoy for Syria, warned Hezbollah against getting involved.
'I can say on behalf of President Trump… that would be a very, very, very bad decision,' he told reporters on Thursday in Beirut, shortly after meeting Lebanese officials, including parliament speaker Nabih Berri.
The second source told MEE: 'If necessary, and if the Iranian regime is threatened, the party is ready to enter this battle through a support front, as happened with Gaza and Syria.'
Hezbollah opened a battlefront with Israel on 8 October 2023, in support of Palestinians under Israeli attack in Gaza.
'Iran's Revolutionary Guard has become heavily involved in the Hezbollah's organisation and is overseeing its rebuilding'
- Source close to Hezbollah
For around a year, the conflict was limited to cross-border exchanges of fire. However in September, Israel exploded thousands of pagers belonging to Hezbollah members, before launching a huge bombing campaign and ground invasion. More than 3,900 Lebanese were killed.
The war left Hezbollah severely weakened, killing much of its senior leadership, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah.
A ceasefire was agreed in November, though Israel continues to carry out frequent attacks on south Lebanon and Beirut suburbs. The Israeli army still occupies several posts in southern Lebanon.
In Syria, meanwhile, Hezbollah ground forces had fought for several years in support of its ally, President Bashar al-Assad.
But the Assad dynasty's five-decade rule fell in December, in a surprise assault by rebel forces which was helped by the months-long depletion of Hezbollah.
'In coordination with the IRGC'
Since a new Lebanese administration was appointed in February, after two years of deadlock, discussions have been ongoing between the government and Hezbollah about the future of the group's vast weaponry.
The government in Beirut instructed the Lebanese army to communicate with Hezbollah and ensure they kept Lebanon out of the conflict, a Lebanese official told MEE.
Several government meetings were held about the repercussions of the conflict, the official said, including meetings at the presidential palace between President Joseph Aoun and the heads of Lebanon's security agencies.
Rizk said military involvement would be politically challenging for Hezbollah.
'The existential threat for Hezbollah would be for the Islamic Republic to be destroyed'
- Ali Rizk, security analyst
'It's going to put the Lebanese state in a difficult situation, and it could upset ties between Aoun and Hezbollah,' Rizk told MEE. 'They have established good ties with the president.'
Hezbollah is widely regarded to be the most heavily-armed non-state group in the world.
Its arsenal includes a wide range of drones, rockets and long-range missiles. Many of its most prized weapons are thought to be held in tunnels dug deep underground.
The second source said that Hezbollah had undergone a structural re-organisation since its most recent war with Israel, in coordination with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
'Since the war, the Revolutionary Guard has become heavily involved in the party's organisation and is overseeing its rebuilding,' they said.
'Thus, any decision the party makes will be in coordination with the Revolutionary Guard, which views this war as a battle to preserve the [Iranian] regime and prevent its collapse.'
They said that despite over a year of conflict with Israel, Hezbollah retained fighting capabilities and weapons out of reach of Israeli air strikes.
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