The Indo Daily Extra: Trump's Gamble – striking Iran, backing Israel and raising the stakes
It's a move that could ignite a regional firestorm and potentially set a worrying precedent in how countries engage in conflict.
The world is braced for Iran's response after the US attacked key Iranian nuclear sites, taking a gamble by joining Israel in the biggest Western military action against the Islamic Republic since its 1979 revolution.
With the damage visible from space after 30,000lb US bunker-buster bombs crashed into the mountain above Iran's Fordow nuclear site, Tehran vowed to defend itself at all costs.
It fired another volley of missiles at Israel that wounded scores of people and flattened buildings in Tel Aviv. The US State Department ordered employees' family members to leave Lebanon and advised citizens elsewhere in the region to keep a low profile or restrict travel.
An advisory from the US Department of Homeland Security warned of a 'heightened threat environment in the United States'. Law enforcement in major US cities stepped up patrols and deployed additional resources to religious, cultural and diplomatic sites.
Tehran has so far not followed through on its threats of retaliation against the US – either by targeting US bases or trying to choke off global oil supplies – but that may not hold.
Today on this Indo Daily Extra, Tabitha Monahan is joined by Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East Correspondent with The Economist to discuss what might come next after a troubling 2 days for international relations.
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Extra.ie
33 minutes ago
- Extra.ie
Iran launches missile attacks on US base in Qatar
Iran has launched missile attacks on a US base in Qatar. The attack comes after the US struck three nuclear facilities in Iran over the weekend. Iran has confirmed that they launched the attack in 'response to the blatant military aggression carried out by the criminal regime of the United States against the peaceful nuclear facilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran.' US president Donald Trump. Pic: Daniel Torok/The White House via Getty Images Iran's Supreme National Security Council said in a statement that the operation against US forces in Qatar's Al-Udeid base was successful and that 'the number of missiles used equalled the number of bombs the US employed in its attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.' According to the New York Times, Iran coordinated the base attack in Qatar with Qatari officials to minimise casualties. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump shake hands during a bilateral meeting in the Oval Office of the White House Pic: Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg via Getty Images Iranian officials told the Times that Iran 'symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp.' The White House has said that it is monitoring threats to US bases in the region. At the time of writing, no casualties have been reported. Speaking ahead of Iran's attack, the Taoiseach had called for an immediate de-escalation. Taoiseach Micheál Martin. Pic: Liam McBurney/PA Wire 'Diplomacy and dialogue is ultimately the only way to resolve these issues,' Mr Martin said. 'Iran should commit not to develop nuclear weapons and disavow its nuclear and uranium enrichment programme. Nuclear safety is an issue here, modern warfare is very destructive. 'It is civilians who ultimately suffer, and that is why we need an end to these wars and bring an end to conflict.' Mr Martin added that the escalation should not draw attention away from the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. 'We shouldn't lose sight of the catastrophe still unfolding in Gaza, while the war between Iran and Israel continues,' he said.
The Journal
an hour ago
- The Journal
Timeline: When did Donald Trump really decide to bomb Iran?
AS THE SMOKE clears from Sunday's US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, retrospective analysis of the timeline of events suggest Donald Trump knew he was never going to negotiate with Iran. Called Operation Midnight Hammer, the carefully choreographed bombing of critical sites in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan was carried out by a fleet of B-2 bombers using 14 'bunker buster' missiles and decoy planes in an effort to destroy what Israel maintains is a nefarious Iranian nuclear programme. In the hours after the mission, Trump claimed it a 'a spectacular military success'. The flight path and timeline of Operation Midnight Hammer. US Defence Department US Defence Department Less than two days prior to 'one of the most complex and historic military operations of all time', in the words of White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, Trump communicated that he would make a decision on whether to strike Iran 'within the next two weeks', leaving the door open for negotiations. The New York Times analysed this statement with respect to the timeline of events leading up to US intervention in Iran, suggesting Washington engages in a deliberate exercise of political and military misdirection. 25 March – US says no nuclear threat from Iran The US published its annual threat assessment, stating: 'We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorised the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.' This was reaffirmed by US director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard who told a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing that month that nuclear weaponisation by Iran was not impending. Trump said this week that Gabbard's testimony before the committee was 'false', after which she has backtracked on her March statement, attacking 'dishonest media' and claiming Iran could soon build a nuclear weapon 'if they decide to'. 12 April – 60-day ultimatum US and Iranian officials held 'constructive' talks in Oman on the subject of limiting Iran's uranium enrichment and moves towards developing nuclear weapons after Trump sent a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. In the letter, Trump gave Iran sixty days to show 'substantial progress' on the issue. To keep the ultimatum viable, Trump asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to strike before then to allow for negotiations to achieve a peaceful resolution. 26 May – Netanyahu warns he will strike Despite Trump's negotiation window facilitating active talks on limiting Iranian nuclear capabilities, Netanyahu told a group of US lawmakers that he would undertake military action against Iran without seeking American approval , according to CNN. Advertisement Netanyahu has for over three decades in politics tried to enlist the help of the US in dismantling Iran's nuclear programme, constantly warning of weaponisation in the very near future, but to no avail. 8 June – Camp David talks Less than a week out from the commencement of Israel's strikes against Iran, Trump and his national security advisers huddled at Camp David where military plans were drawn up. Sources told ABC News that among the items on the agenda in those discussions was Israel's plan to proactively strike upon the passing of Trump's 60-day deadline. This claim has legitimacy, considering reports of daily contact between Trump and Netanyahu prior to Israel's pre-emptive attack on Iran's military sites and army officials. 9 June – IAEA gives verdict The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a statement commenting on Iran's uranium enrichment efforts. IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi said: 'Unless and until Iran assists the Agency in resolving the outstanding safeguards issues, the agency will not be in a position to provide assurance that Iran's nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful.' 13 June – Israel strikes first One day after the lapse of Trump's 60-day window, Israel began airstrikes against Iran, triggering what have become daily missile exchanges between both sides. The initial attacks killed top Iranian military figures, including Ali Shamkhani, a key nuclear negotiator and close aide to Iran's leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 16 June – Trump ditches the G7 Three days after fighting began, Trump left the G7 Summit in Canada under the guise of working to resolve the conflict. That same day, he shirked any appearance of confidentiality about his country's military plans in Iran, posting to Truth Social: 'Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!' 17-19 June – Trump keeps the world guessing In the week leading up to the American strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, Trump remained ambivalent about whether he would intervene in the conflict, telling reporters 'I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do'. He faced opposition to the move, even from the most ardent of the Maga movement, including the outspoken Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor-Greene and conservative TV host Tucker Carlson. 20 June – America intervenes Trump authorised a fleet of US B-2 bombers to drop 14 bunker busters on Iranian nuclear sites in the early hours of the morning local time. US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said 'took months and weeks of positioning and preparation', implying that the US was always fully intent on assisting Israel is dismantling Iran's nuclear capabilities if called upon. Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone... Our Explainer articles bring context and explanations in plain language to help make sense of complex issues. We're asking readers like you to support us so we can continue to provide helpful context to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay. Learn More Support The Journal
Irish Daily Mirror
an hour ago
- Irish Daily Mirror
Iranian missiles fired towards US airbase in Qatar as Trump meets security team
Iran has officially retaliated against the US, launching a wave of missile strikes aimed at US bases in Qatar and Iraq as Trump hosts a meeting with his top security team. According to a senior US official, the White House and Pentagon are aware of, and closely monitoring, the potential threats, including to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Iranian state media has said the missile operation 'Blessings of Victory' against US sites in Qatar and Iraq has begun. It comes after one British national has been injured in Israel during missile attacks by Iran, David Lammy has said. The Foreign Secretary said the Middle East is now going through "a perilous moment" as the conflict continues after the US got involved too at the weekend. Strikes between Iran and Israel have now continued for 10 days. Meanwhile, hundreds of Iran's elite soldiers are believed to have been killed after Israel struck at the "heart of Tehran" today. In fresh strikes on the ideological symbols of the Iranian regime, Israel targeted the entrance of the notorious Evin Prison - where enemies of the state are held - and the Basij Headquarters. The Basij is the shadowy paramilitary wing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps - which the US previously prescribed as a terrorist organisation. Follow our live blog below... Dr. Majed Al Ansari, Advisor to the Prime Minister and spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar, has said the country condemns that attack on the Al Udeid Air Base. In a statement shared on X, he said Qatar "reserves the right to respond directly in a manner proportional to the nature and scale of this blatant aggression and in accordance with international law." Dr. Al Ansari said Qatari aid defences "thwarted the attack and successfully intercepted the Iranian missiles." The State of Qatar strongly condemns the attack that targeted Al-Udeid Air Base by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. We consider this a flagrant violation of the sovereignty of the State of Qatar, its airspace, international law, and the United Nations Charter. We affirm that… The attack on the US air base came shortly after Qatar closed its airspace as a precaution amid threats from Iran. Just before the explosions in Qatar, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on the social platform X: "We neither initiated the war nor seeking it. "But we will not leave invasion to the great Iran without answer." US President Donald Trump, Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and other officials are in the White House Situation Room monitoring the latest updates. Iran has begun its "mighty and victorious" response to US strikes, state media reported this evening. According to the state-run Tasnim agency, Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched missiles at a US base in Qatar. Iran says it has launched an attack on US forces at Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base. It comes after a senior administration official, who was not authorised to comment publicly, said the White House and Pentagon were aware of, and closely monitoring, the potential threats to the air base. Explosions were heard in Qatar on Monday night as witnesses said they saw what appeared to be missiles in the skies over the country. There was no immediate acknowledgment from Qatari authorities of any attack. The reports emerged as Qatar closed its airspace amid Iranian threats to retaliate against the United States over its bombing early Sunday of three Iranian nuclear sites. Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with his national security team at 1pm ET (6pm BST) at the White House. The US president is set to discuss the threat of Iranian retaliation, which could determine how he responds, and establish whether the US will plunge deeper into Israel's war with Iran. Tony Redondo, founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange, has said it would be "wise for consumers to fill up their tanks now" as even a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have an "immediate and significant" impact on petrol prices. The expert said the closure could spike Brent crude up 15% to over $80/barrel, pushing prices to 152p/litre very quickly, The Sun reported. Mr Redondo als warned a full closure could see oil hit $100-$150, driving petrol up towards £2/litre, saying: "That's why now could be a smart time to fill up your tank before any further hikes come into effect." Please note, you should only fill up your tank if you believe you need to - and most importantly, if you can afford it. Ken James, Director at Contractor Mortgage Services, said crude oil could soar "well beyond $150 (£111) per barrel - levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis." He explained: "While the final decision rests with Iran's powerful Security Council and has not yet been made, the symbolic move has begun to send shockwaves through energy markets. "Analysts warn that any actual closure could ignite a sharp spike in oil prices, with estimates suggesting crude could soar well beyond $150 per barrel - levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Investor sentiment is already showing signs of a risk-off shift. "Safe-haven assets like gold, US Treasuries, and the Swiss franc could see significant inflows if tensions escalate. As markets await a final decision from Tehran, traders are on high alert. The Strait of Hormuz may still be open for now but the global economic ripple effects are already being felt." The worst possible outcome is least likely and that involves Iran declaring all-out war on America and Israel, says our Defence and Security Editor Chris Hughes. He writes: "This would happen if the Iranian regime miscalculated and goes too far when it makes a revenge gesture of reply to the United States. "The problem is that US President Donald Trump has warned Tehran will be hit by far worse if it does hit US interests so that starts a cycle of escalating violence. "I believe if Iran does something below the threshold for war then America may be forced to let it pass and give Iran that off-ramp, saving face and avoiding all-out war." To read the full story, click here. Shelter in place is a public safety protocol which means finding a safe location indoors and staying there until you are given an "all clear" or told to evacuate. It can be invoked during various emergencies including extreme weather, chemical or radiological hazards, or even active shooter situations. The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has updated its travel advice for Qatar to recommend British nationals in the Gulf state "shelter in place". In an update to the page, the FCDO said: "Following a US security alert for US nationals in Qatar, out of an abundance of caution, we recommend that British nationals in Qatar shelter in place until further notice. Follow instructions from local authorities. "The FCDO is in contact with local authorities and international partners, and will provide further updates as the situation develops." There are fears that petrol prices could increase if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, which sees around a fifth of the world's global oil supply pass through. After the US attacked nuclear facilities at the weekend, Iran's parliament voted to close the strait - but this requires approval from the country's Supreme National Security Council. This could lead to oil prices surge - and when the market opened earlier today Brent Crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, hit $81.40 (£60.41) a barrel. However, it later dropped to trade 0.3% lower on the day at $76.76 (£56.97) by early afternoon in the UK. To see which other everyday items could go up in price as a result of the conflict, click here. Israel's military is warning Iranians it will continue to attack military sites around Tehran over "the coming days." The military issued the warning on social media, though Iranians are struggling to access the outside world because of an internet shutdown in the country. The warning says "we ask you to stay away from weapons production centres, military bases and security institutions affiliated with the regime." Iran has criticised the warnings as a way to scare its public. However, the Israelis have carried out strikes after their warnings multiple times in the war. One British national has been injured in Israel during missile attacks by Iran, David Lammy has said. In a statement to the Commons, the Foreign Secretary said: "This is a perilous moment in the Middle East, waves of strikes between Israel and Iran have now lasted for 10 days, continuing overnight. "I know the whole House will have in their thoughts the many civilians impacted by the fighting. I can confirm today, this includes one British national, injured in Israel. We've reached out to offer consular support." South Africa is calling on the United States, Israel and Iran to allow the United Nations to lead diplomatic efforts to find a resolution to the conflict. It is also calling on them to allow an inspection and verification of Iran's uranium enrichment and its nuclear capacity. South Africa has strong diplomatic ties with Iran, which the Trump administration has criticised. The leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah has indicated that the group will not join the war between Iran and Israel for now. Naim Kassem spoke in his first public comments since the US inserted itself into the war on Sunday. He said his group is ready to back any decision taken by the Lebanese state to force Israel to stop the war. He also told the Iran-backed group's Al-Ahad newspaper in a report published Monday that the attacks on Iran will "have a high cost" as the whole region is in danger, and says Donald Trump's threats to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are a "vile act and a sign of weakness." White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says US operations in the Middle East haven't changed despite Trump raising the possibility of what he called "regime change" in Iran on Sunday. "The president was just simply raising a question that I think many people around the world are asking," Leavitt told reporters on Monday. She added: "If they refuse to engage in diplomacy moving forward, why shouldn't the Iranian people rise up against this brutal terrorist regime?" US President Donald Trump has called for oil prices to stay down amid fears Iran could retaliate to US strikes by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the world's busiest oil shipping channel. In a post shared to TruthSocial, Mr Trump said: "Everyone, keep oil prices down. "I'm watching. You're playing right into the hands of the enemy. Don't do it." Donald Trump shocked the world when he boasted the US had "totally obliterated" Iran's nuclear sites during "Operation Midnight" - but what sparked such drastic action? President Trump claimed on Sunday that the US had carried out a "successful" bombing attack on three nuclear sites in Iran after more than a week of strikes by Israel on Iran that have moved to systematically eradicate the country's air defences and offensive missile capabilities, while damaging its nuclear enrichment facilities. Israel confirmed they were in "full co-ordination" with the US in planning the strikes, which signals a significant escalation in the ongoing war between Iran and Israel. Iran has downplayed Israel's targeted attacks on Evin prison as part of its fresh strikes on the country. The Mizan news agency, which is affiliated with the country's judiciary, said "all necessary measures" were put in place to "protect the safety of prisoners." It is the same prison where dual British-Iranian citizen Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe spent four years of her sentence. This is the moment British nationals boarded a Royal Air Force plane out of Israel - one of the first emergency evacuations since the US attacked nuclear sites in Iran. Keir Starmer has urged British nationals in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories to make contact with the Foreign Office as it prepares for an evacuation flight. Reports yesterday said evacuation flights for British citizens trapped in Israel could begin "within hours". And today at 3pm local time a flight of around 50 people took off from Tel Aviv airport, headed for a base in Larnaca, Cyprus. It is currently in the air. It is understood passengers will then board another plane returning to the UK. One passenger - who wants to be anonymous - said he was notified at 3am local time that a flight would be made available to take people home. According to the Israeli Government, the flights will have a strict limit of 50 people. The passenger on board said: "We were notified at 3am this morning."People are feeling very relieved, there are lots of empty seats on board despite people saying it is full." Administration officials are openly speaking about regime change, saying that the Iranian people should be able to overthrow the "violent regime". White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says if Iran refuses to come to diplomatic solution, "why shouldn't the Iranian people take away the power of this incredibly violent regime?" Some recent reports from Iran say there is a huge amount of solidarity among the Iranian people against the US and Israel, with the public demanding a strong response and a refusal of negotiations. Israeli and American attacks on Iran's nuclear programme have had a "huge" impact, according to the UK's former ambassador to Iran. However, Rob Macaire - who served from 2018 to 2021 - said that it's still unclear what's happened at the subterranean Fordow plant. "The cumulative impact of the Israeli attacks and the US attacks on Iran's nuclear programme has seen huge damage," he said. "The question is whether Iran comes out of this determined to rebuild that programme and to try to get towards a nuclear weapon as a result of this - or whether it comes out of it recognising that's not going to be an option and seeing if there is a negotiation route for them "That is what is to play for now." The UK government has responded to questions over its position on the US's decision to bomb Iran over the weekend. Downing Street has issued a statement, saying: "We're clear that the prevention of Iran getting nuclear weapons is a good thing for this country. "But our focus is on diplomacy. That is the priority and that is what every member of this government is working towards and that's been the focus of the calls with international partners over the weekend." The spokesman added: "Iran should take the opportunity presented by the US to re-enter talks." حمله نمادین اسرائیل به سردر زندان اوین Israel Air Force strikes in Tehran/Karaji- Iranian state television buildings- Stone (Evin) Prison and another prison in Karaj- Ministry of Energy Building- Shahid Behashti University- Police/Basij regional stations Iranian media thinks these attacks are carried out by… Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi has met with Russia's Vladimir Putin today. The Russian leader told Araghchi: "You are visiting Russia at a difficult time, during a sharp aggravation of the situation in the region and around your country." He said Russia is "making efforts to assist the Iranian people". Israeli media is reporting that Israel's most recent strike in Iran has killed hundreds of members of the country's shadowy IRGC organisation. Israel targeted a number of locations across the capital, including Evin Prison and the Basij headquarters, an Israeli official told the Jerusalem Post. Israel Katz, the country's defence minister, said Israel is now attacking "the heart of Tehran" with "unprecedented force". He mentioned Evin as the home of political prisoners held by the regime, and the Basij headquarters as the internal security base for the revolutionary guard corps' paramilitary wing. "For every shot fired at the Israeli home front, the Iranian dictator will be punished and the attacks will continue with full force," he says.
