China should mull a 4% GDP target, focus on jobs, debts in next 5 years: former official

A former senior economic planner has called for China's annual growth target to be lowered for the next five years, factoring in the likelihood of a protracted rivalry with the United States and the need to solve deep-rooted structural problems in China.
Xu Lin, who helped draft Beijing's five-year plan for decades while an official at the National Development and Reform Commission, made the comments as the world's second-largest economy is increasingly relying on economic planning for continued growth.
Compared with some market estimates of around 4.5 per cent annual growth from 2026-30, he said the potential growth rate and growth target figure should be around 4 per cent in the next five to 10 years, owing to China's shrinking population, its falling savings and production rate, and other headwinds.
'It is inappropriate to set a target higher than the potential growth in China's
15th five-year plan , if considering the complex international environment and domestic difficulties such as property, the debt down-cycle and weak market confidence,' Xu told Comparative Studies magazine in an interview published on social media on Tuesday.
'An annual 4 per cent GDP growth would be very good if employment can be expanded and the debt ratio is controlled,' said Xu, who is now academic director of the Pangoal Institution, a Beijing-based think tank, and also chairman of China-US Green Fund.
China did not give a quantitative growth target in its 2021-2025 development plan, but the market has largely been estimating an annual expansion of at least 4.8 per cent until 2035 based on leadership's goal of doubling the country's gross domestic product by then.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

South China Morning Post

2 hours ago

• South China Morning Post

Remove barriers to speed up Hong Kong's Northern Metropolis, Xia Baolong says

Beijing's point man on Hong Kong affairs has urged local authorities to speed up work on the Northern Metropolis megaproject by removing barriers while also safeguarding national security against the threat of 'soft resistance', according to the city's leader. Advertisement Seeing off Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office (HKMAO) director Xia Baolong at the border at the end of his five-day visit , Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu said on Sunday that the city was told to take advantage of the stability and safety brought by the national security law's implementation five years ago by boosting development and the economy. Xia, whose inspection trip marked the fifth anniversary of the Beijing-imposed law, had set out the future directions of the city's development during the trip, Lee said. The city leader added that Xia had reaffirmed his support for the administration's work. Xia also praised the work of community care teams, who helped needy households, and encouraged them by composing a poem for the carers, Lee said. 'Director Xia reminded us to continue safeguarding national security,' Lee told reporters at the Shenzhen Bay crossing after Xia's departure. 'The risks still exist especially when the geopolitical situation is complex, and we should always stay vigilant against soft resistance. Advertisement 'We should work on security and development by taking advantage of the safety and stability.'

South China Morning Post

3 hours ago

• South China Morning Post

South Korea set to join global race to develop sixth-generation fighters

South Korea is set to become the latest country to develop a sixth-generation fighter, according to a senior aerospace executive. Advertisement Shin Dong-hak, vice-president of international business development at Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), said in an interview at the Paris Air Show that the technology it was showcasing at the event – including 4.5-generation fighters and unmanned aerial vehicles – would 'ultimately' become 'key elements' of the switch to sixth-generation fighters. The country is joining a global race where footage recently released on social media suggests China may have started testing its sixth-generation prototypes Meanwhile, in the United States, US President Donald Trump has confirmed that the US will go ahead with its sixth-generation fighter programme by awarding Boeing the contract to develop the planes. Last week at the event – the world's largest and oldest air show – KAI's display included the KF-21 Boramae, its latest 4.5-generation fighter jet, FA-50 light combat aircraft and next-generation unmanned combat aircraft. Advertisement These aircraft were each accompanied by multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), suggesting it was working on crewed-uncrewed teaming – a key element of new-generation aerial warfare in which drones operate alongside piloted planes to increase their operational range and serve as a defensive shield.

South China Morning Post

4 hours ago

• South China Morning Post

China condemns US strikes on Iran, calls for ceasefire and talks

China condemned the United States for its weekend attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, describing them as serious violations of international law. In a brief statement on Sunday night, the Chinese foreign ministry said the bombing of the facilities, which were under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, seriously violated the United Nations Charter and its principles. It called on all parties, especially Israel, to cease fire as soon as possible, ensure the safety of civilians and start dialogue. 'China is willing to work with the international community to uphold justice and restore peace and stability in the Middle East,' the ministry said. The call came hours after US President Donald Trump announced that the US military had conducted the bombings, calling the strikes a 'spectacular military success' and pledging more attacks if Tehran did not stand down. 03:22 Trump announces US attack on Iran nuclear sites Trump announces US attack on Iran nuclear sites Tehran also confirmed the strikes, but said the sites had been evacuated before the strikes. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the bombing 'outrageous'.