Joe Schmidt not just fighting to win but to save rugby union in Australia
Australian rugby is not in a good place. The Wallabies are a lowly eighth, below Scotland and Argentina, in the world rankings. They finished last in both the 2023 and 2024 Rugby Championship campaigns. In the 2023 World Cup they were eliminated at the pool stage for the first time in their history. The Green and Gold lost 40-6 to Wales. That in itself tells quite a tale. As did the decision to hire Eddie Jones.
Joe Schmidt has initiated some improvement. His team did beat England and avenged themselves against Wales last autumn but they also suffered the worst defeat in their history, 67-27, at the hands of Argentina.
Domestically their Super Rugby Pacific season ended in mostly premature failure. The Queensland Reds failed to make the knockout section. So too the New South Wales and Western Australian franchises. The Brumbies, from Australia Capital Territories, managed a morale-boosting quarter-final victory against the Hurricanes before the Chiefs — from New Zealand, like the Hurricanes — overwhelmed them in the semi-final. The actual tournament is struggling to retain much interest because it has become an exclusively New Zealand competition at the sharp end. It is ten years since the Wallabies won the Rugby Championship, and 11 since Michael Cheika's Waratahs beat the Crusaders in front of nearly 62,000 supporters in Sydney, the last time an Australian team won the Super Rugby title.
The reflection of this in crowd sizes is glaring. The average attendance in Sydney was 16,000 this season, while it was 1,000 less in the union stronghold of Brisbane. Twenty years ago, these averages were almost double today's figures. When the Brumbies beat the Hurricanes, I was horrified with the endless rows of empty seats in Canberra. As for Western Australia, they have averaged a fraction over 6,700.
Rugby league averages 21,000 per game compared with Australian Super Rugby's 12,000. Aussie Rules packs in 39,000 spectators on an average match day. Football is also on the rise. On a Sunday morning there are throngs of kids playing 'touch footie' in Sydney and plenty of supporters turn up for the city's Shute Shield, featuring the long-established union clubs. It is predominantly middle class — but that's no different to England.
In some ways, the two countries have similar problems. New South Wales and Queensland continue as the nation's rugby epicentre — for fans, clubs and schools — but it struggles to make an impact in other parts of the country. Just as the Premiership has struggled to understand that outside the traditional strongholds the sport has stagnated so it has failed to thrive in Victoria and Western Australia. The failure of Melbourne to maintain a team was testament to Aussie Rules' grip over union.
Whereas Aussie Rules has made dents in the union markets of Sydney, union has not been able to nationalise rugby union. Last weekend, at the Optus Stadium in Perth, where the British & Irish Lions tour to Australia kicks off for real, 31,000-plus turned up on the Saturday for North Melbourne v Fremantle Dockers, and nearly 44,000 for the next day's game, West Coast Eagles v Carlton. These are figures beyond union's dreams.
Until now. The Lions begin their tour against Western Force in Perth, Western Australia, next Saturday. The legion of Lions supporters, anticipated to number about 40,000 through the tour, will pack the stands, almost certainly outnumbering the locals with their average crowd of 6,700.
That life support for the union code is the Lions playing doctor and revitalising the sport's ailing body. Australia needs an end to echoing stadiums and, more than any team in the world, the Lions quartet of nations guarantees non-stop atmosphere.
But what — other than to replenished coffers — are the long-term implications should the tour degenerate into a sequence of one-sided affairs before the Test series? The Wallabies' so-called 'Super' teams will be stripped of some of their Test performers. And though Schmidt does not have the strength in depth to risk all of his core players, he has made more than expected available for Western Force. On Thursday revealed that Wallabies squad members Nick Champion de Crespigny, Tom Robertson, Darcy Swain, Tom Robertson, Dylan Pietsch and Nic White would all be free to play.
For the tour, this is promising news. Andy Farrell's job isn't to play the part of rugby missionary and go easy on the opposition. The Lions have hit Western Force for a century of points in the past. If they thrash them on June 28, where does that leave the already sparse loyal core of 6,700 fans?
It may be pure coincidence but this week the venue for the first Lions match hosted rugby league's showpiece, the State of Origin; New South Wales versus Queensland brings the East Coast of Australia to a grinding halt. This match, the second of the three-game series, was played at the Optus Stadium in Perth a mere ten days before the Lions kick off.
Queensland, having lost in Brisbane, fought back to level the series at 1-1, with the decider now set for Sydney. The marketing men couldn't be more delighted with the way the State of Origin has panned out in the distant west.
It will take a stunning performance from Western Force to eclipse the 26-24 windswept Origin thriller. League has made the sort of mark in Western Australia that union can only dream of. As for the Tests, Australia have one warm-up game against Fiji before the series. The Lions have the advantage in terms of preparation and strength.
Schmidt has to gamble with his stars, arguably throwing the warm-up games. Nothing but a compelling Test series stops Australia from sliding further away from its already tenuous position among the nation's winter sports. On the terraces and in the bars the tour will be a riotous carnival. The Lions' combined support base guarantees colour in abundance.
On the pitch, however, Schmidt is tasked with the toughest test for Australia's coach since the game turned pro. They triumphed in 2001, two years after winning their second World Cup and two years before losing to England in the 2003 final. That was a great Aussie team and the series went dramatically down to the dying seconds.
If Australia lose the series and the Lions leave a trail of hammerings in their wake, the 2027 World Cup in Australia is going to rely on tourists and ex-pats. This tour is about more than the future of the Wallabies. It is a threat to the entire code of rugby union.
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In addition to key figures like Rob Valetini, Harry Wilson and Fraser McReight, the likes of Carlo Tizzano from the Western Force and Seru Uru at the Reds would all hope to be in a matchday 23. Add in Josh Kemeny and Pete Samu, both of whom started the Champions Cup final for Northampton Saints and champions Bordeaux-Bègles respectively, and it is clear that Schmidt has some big calls to make. Horwill reflected: 'If you go through and want to pick a XV, if you go position-by-position, you are asking yourself who would you pick and it's a hard decision. We probably haven't had that in previous years. You can almost see the quality of the squad by the people you leave out, rather than the people you select. 'When he names his squad for the Lions, there are going to be guys who are very good players who deserve to be there but there just aren't enough shirts to get the job. That only bodes well for performance, guys pushing and people chomping at the heels if you don't perform. 'You just have a look and try to pick the back row now and who misses out? Who is on the bench? It will be a fascinating battle. 'I think Fraser McReight is a difference-maker for us. He's a player that we saw on the end-of-season tour at Wallaby level, the game he didn't play against Scotland, you saw the difference in performance. 'Who plays No.8? Bobby Valetini and Harry Wilson have been putting in huge performances. Those two guys are going to be vital to get that go-forward ball for us against the Lions. And Carlo Tizzano couldn't be doing much more.' Brought in to replace Jones after his disastrous second spell, Schmidt will move on in 2026, to be succeeded by Reds boss Les Kiss. He and Schmidt have previously worked together with Ireland, while Kiss has plenty of experience of northern hemisphere rugby, having spent time at Ulster and then London Irish prior to them entering administration. While there has been no clear succession plan over the last two Wallaby coach changes, there appears to be a longer-term vision this time around. Horwill said: 'The two guys have worked together previously with Ireland and while they are different, they both have a similar understanding of how they like the game to be played. 'In terms of consistency and continuing the momentum that hopefully we have built by then, going into a home World Cup, I imagine that it will go quite seamlessly. 'Joe is staying on until July next year now and my understanding is that a big part of that is to help Les set up that programme so that they are ready to pick up and run with it and are not starting afresh. 'While Les no doubt has some differences to what Joe does, speaking to the Queensland guys, they all speak incredibly highly of him. He's done some great things with the Reds in the short time he has been there.' Horwill and the Wallabies were part of a Lions series for the ages 12 years ago. With Schmidt at the helm and a team on the up, there is reason to believe this summer's tour could be just as entertaining.
