Trump, tariffs and more: why Hunter business confidence is shaken
Global uncertainty has seen business confidence drop in the region, breaking with past quarters of cautious optimism.
The shift has been attributed to the growing impact of day-to-day business pressures, as customers and businesses locally feel the trickle-down effects of the Trump administration's on-again-off-again tariffs and erratic presence on the international stage, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
At street level in Newcastle, business owners say the pinch is not being felt directly but there is an aftertaste.
"Our space does not scream politics," Bank Corner Espresso Bar owner Alyssa Salamon said. Since taking over the space on Bellevue Street in 2024, she has made a point of trying to avoid dragging the digitally propelled political world into the cafe. Still, as uncertainty increases, it has seeped in at the edges.
"It has been just that commonality of themes in conversation popping up around the place," she said. "Or people who I would not have expected to have been so affected by it making comments about having had losses."
Business Hunter boss Bob Hawes singled out Trump's tariffs and their effect on international markets as a driver of uncertainty revealed in the results of the second Business NSW Business Conditions Survey for the year.
"Over 50 per cent of businesses said they had seen a change in customer behaviour as a result of global economic uncertainty and nearly 30 per cent had noted changes in supplier behaviour," he said.
Mr Hawes said the bread-and-butter issues of business including increasing insurance and energy costs, taxes and levies and red tape were also weighing heavily on business operators' minds and bottom lines.
"Insurance remains the number one cost pressure, with nearly 70 per cent of businesses across NSW reporting that they had undertaken a budget reallocation to account for higher insurance costs," Mr Hawes said.
Business hiring dropped off across the survey period. In Newcastle and Lake Macquarie only 19 per cent of businesses employed new staff in the three-month period. In the Hunter Valley, that figure was 11 per cent.
Statewide, 27 per cent of businesses reduced their headcount. In the region those figures were 29 per cent (Newcastle and Lake Macquarie) and 40 per cent (Hunter Valley).
Mr Hawes said reforms to worker compensation and the Emergency Services Levy were two measures the NSW government could take quickly to ease financial pressure on businesses.
"To tackle soaring insurance costs, the NSW government must fast-track reforms to the Emergency Services Levy, which is collected largely through insurance policies and adds nearly a quarter to premiums," Mr Hawes said.
"NSW is the only state that funds emergency services through a tax on insurance premiums. A fairer collection system would provide vital relief to thousands of businesses struggling to stay afloat.
"Passing the workers compensation reforms through the NSW Parliament at earliest opportunity will also help ease the cost burden on businesses."
Global uncertainty has seen business confidence drop in the region, breaking with past quarters of cautious optimism.
The shift has been attributed to the growing impact of day-to-day business pressures, as customers and businesses locally feel the trickle-down effects of the Trump administration's on-again-off-again tariffs and erratic presence on the international stage, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
At street level in Newcastle, business owners say the pinch is not being felt directly but there is an aftertaste.
"Our space does not scream politics," Bank Corner Espresso Bar owner Alyssa Salamon said. Since taking over the space on Bellevue Street in 2024, she has made a point of trying to avoid dragging the digitally propelled political world into the cafe. Still, as uncertainty increases, it has seeped in at the edges.
"It has been just that commonality of themes in conversation popping up around the place," she said. "Or people who I would not have expected to have been so affected by it making comments about having had losses."
Business Hunter boss Bob Hawes singled out Trump's tariffs and their effect on international markets as a driver of uncertainty revealed in the results of the second Business NSW Business Conditions Survey for the year.
"Over 50 per cent of businesses said they had seen a change in customer behaviour as a result of global economic uncertainty and nearly 30 per cent had noted changes in supplier behaviour," he said.
Mr Hawes said the bread-and-butter issues of business including increasing insurance and energy costs, taxes and levies and red tape were also weighing heavily on business operators' minds and bottom lines.
"Insurance remains the number one cost pressure, with nearly 70 per cent of businesses across NSW reporting that they had undertaken a budget reallocation to account for higher insurance costs," Mr Hawes said.
Business hiring dropped off across the survey period. In Newcastle and Lake Macquarie only 19 per cent of businesses employed new staff in the three-month period. In the Hunter Valley, that figure was 11 per cent.
Statewide, 27 per cent of businesses reduced their headcount. In the region those figures were 29 per cent (Newcastle and Lake Macquarie) and 40 per cent (Hunter Valley).
Mr Hawes said reforms to worker compensation and the Emergency Services Levy were two measures the NSW government could take quickly to ease financial pressure on businesses.
"To tackle soaring insurance costs, the NSW government must fast-track reforms to the Emergency Services Levy, which is collected largely through insurance policies and adds nearly a quarter to premiums," Mr Hawes said.
"NSW is the only state that funds emergency services through a tax on insurance premiums. A fairer collection system would provide vital relief to thousands of businesses struggling to stay afloat.
"Passing the workers compensation reforms through the NSW Parliament at earliest opportunity will also help ease the cost burden on businesses."
Global uncertainty has seen business confidence drop in the region, breaking with past quarters of cautious optimism.
The shift has been attributed to the growing impact of day-to-day business pressures, as customers and businesses locally feel the trickle-down effects of the Trump administration's on-again-off-again tariffs and erratic presence on the international stage, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
At street level in Newcastle, business owners say the pinch is not being felt directly but there is an aftertaste.
"Our space does not scream politics," Bank Corner Espresso Bar owner Alyssa Salamon said. Since taking over the space on Bellevue Street in 2024, she has made a point of trying to avoid dragging the digitally propelled political world into the cafe. Still, as uncertainty increases, it has seeped in at the edges.
"It has been just that commonality of themes in conversation popping up around the place," she said. "Or people who I would not have expected to have been so affected by it making comments about having had losses."
Business Hunter boss Bob Hawes singled out Trump's tariffs and their effect on international markets as a driver of uncertainty revealed in the results of the second Business NSW Business Conditions Survey for the year.
"Over 50 per cent of businesses said they had seen a change in customer behaviour as a result of global economic uncertainty and nearly 30 per cent had noted changes in supplier behaviour," he said.
Mr Hawes said the bread-and-butter issues of business including increasing insurance and energy costs, taxes and levies and red tape were also weighing heavily on business operators' minds and bottom lines.
"Insurance remains the number one cost pressure, with nearly 70 per cent of businesses across NSW reporting that they had undertaken a budget reallocation to account for higher insurance costs," Mr Hawes said.
Business hiring dropped off across the survey period. In Newcastle and Lake Macquarie only 19 per cent of businesses employed new staff in the three-month period. In the Hunter Valley, that figure was 11 per cent.
Statewide, 27 per cent of businesses reduced their headcount. In the region those figures were 29 per cent (Newcastle and Lake Macquarie) and 40 per cent (Hunter Valley).
Mr Hawes said reforms to worker compensation and the Emergency Services Levy were two measures the NSW government could take quickly to ease financial pressure on businesses.
"To tackle soaring insurance costs, the NSW government must fast-track reforms to the Emergency Services Levy, which is collected largely through insurance policies and adds nearly a quarter to premiums," Mr Hawes said.
"NSW is the only state that funds emergency services through a tax on insurance premiums. A fairer collection system would provide vital relief to thousands of businesses struggling to stay afloat.
"Passing the workers compensation reforms through the NSW Parliament at earliest opportunity will also help ease the cost burden on businesses."
Global uncertainty has seen business confidence drop in the region, breaking with past quarters of cautious optimism.
The shift has been attributed to the growing impact of day-to-day business pressures, as customers and businesses locally feel the trickle-down effects of the Trump administration's on-again-off-again tariffs and erratic presence on the international stage, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
At street level in Newcastle, business owners say the pinch is not being felt directly but there is an aftertaste.
"Our space does not scream politics," Bank Corner Espresso Bar owner Alyssa Salamon said. Since taking over the space on Bellevue Street in 2024, she has made a point of trying to avoid dragging the digitally propelled political world into the cafe. Still, as uncertainty increases, it has seeped in at the edges.
"It has been just that commonality of themes in conversation popping up around the place," she said. "Or people who I would not have expected to have been so affected by it making comments about having had losses."
Business Hunter boss Bob Hawes singled out Trump's tariffs and their effect on international markets as a driver of uncertainty revealed in the results of the second Business NSW Business Conditions Survey for the year.
"Over 50 per cent of businesses said they had seen a change in customer behaviour as a result of global economic uncertainty and nearly 30 per cent had noted changes in supplier behaviour," he said.
Mr Hawes said the bread-and-butter issues of business including increasing insurance and energy costs, taxes and levies and red tape were also weighing heavily on business operators' minds and bottom lines.
"Insurance remains the number one cost pressure, with nearly 70 per cent of businesses across NSW reporting that they had undertaken a budget reallocation to account for higher insurance costs," Mr Hawes said.
Business hiring dropped off across the survey period. In Newcastle and Lake Macquarie only 19 per cent of businesses employed new staff in the three-month period. In the Hunter Valley, that figure was 11 per cent.
Statewide, 27 per cent of businesses reduced their headcount. In the region those figures were 29 per cent (Newcastle and Lake Macquarie) and 40 per cent (Hunter Valley).
Mr Hawes said reforms to worker compensation and the Emergency Services Levy were two measures the NSW government could take quickly to ease financial pressure on businesses.
"To tackle soaring insurance costs, the NSW government must fast-track reforms to the Emergency Services Levy, which is collected largely through insurance policies and adds nearly a quarter to premiums," Mr Hawes said.
"NSW is the only state that funds emergency services through a tax on insurance premiums. A fairer collection system would provide vital relief to thousands of businesses struggling to stay afloat.
"Passing the workers compensation reforms through the NSW Parliament at earliest opportunity will also help ease the cost burden on businesses."
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