Opinion: Quebec Liberal leadership race a clash of visions
After a year-long leadership race, in less than a week, members of the Quebec Liberal Party will begin voting to choose their new leader. The winner will be announced on June 14 in Quebec City.
Five candidates are competing to succeed Dominique Anglade. Among them, former federal minister Pablo Rodriguez is widely seen as the front-runner.
However, within Liberal circles, a growing number of members are joining what they call the 'ABP Movement' — 'Anyone But Pablo.'
These critics argue that while Rodriguez is certainly the most recognizable candidate among the general public, that doesn't necessarily make him the best positioned to defeat the CAQ'S François Legault and the PQ's Paul St-Pierre Plamondon in 2026. And they may have a point.
Because Rodriguez carries significant political baggage. While extensive political experience can sometimes be an asset, his close association with former prime minister Justin Trudeau may prove more of a liability these days, especially given his long tenure as Trudeau's Quebec lieutenant.
Whenever Rodriguez will criticize the Legault government's handling of public finances, he'll be reminded that he was part of a federal government that posted record deficits year after year for a decade. Under his leadership, the QLP could struggle to rebuild its reputation as the party of sound economic management and fiscal responsibility.
When it comes to immigration, Rodriguez's past might again work against him. He was part of the ultra-multiculturalist government that mishandled the Roxham Rd. situation. As leader, he could find it difficult to bring back nationalists and soft federalists who have shifted their support to the CAQ since 2018.
Rodriguez is also seen by many as being too closely tied to Montreal. For a party that desperately needs to expand its base beyond the metropolitan area, this would potentially be a serious obstacle.
So, this is more than just a typical leadership race — it's a battle between two ideological currents within the Liberal family.
On one side, the Trudeau-style Liberals, more inclined to the left and in favour of multiculturalism. They're usually backing Rodriguez.
On the other, the fiscally conservative, more nationalist Liberals. Those who want to see their party go back to the core values that brought the party success during the years of Robert Bourassa and Jean Charest. Their vote is currently split between two high-profile candidates: Karl Blackburn, former MNA and president of the Conseil du patronat du Québec; and Charles Milliard, former CEO of the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec.
This division in the centre-right vote should normally work to Rodriguez's advantage. But it's not that easy.
The QLP's voting system resembles a general election: It's not the total number of votes that matters, but how candidates perform in each riding, which all carry an equal amount of points, regardless of the number of party members. That means a vote in the West Island — where Liberal membership is dense — is worth less than in regions like Saguenay or Gaspésie.
Given that Rodriguez's support is mainly concentrated around the Montreal area, there's potential for surprises on June 14.
The stakes are high: This leadership race could drastically redefine what it means to be a Quebec Liberal.
Since Jean Lesage in the 1960s, Quebec Liberals have always taken pride on not being perceived as a mere provincial wing of their federal counterpart. Electing Rodriguez could blur that distinction in the eyes of many Quebecers — and further deepen the party's disconnect with francophone voters in the rest of the province.
The QLP now stands at a crossroads. Its 20,000 members are facing a defining choice that will determine whether the party will remain on the opposition benches for a long time, or if it will begin to reclaim its place as Quebec's traditional governing force — a role it has held for close to 150 years.
In less than two weeks, we'll know which path they've chosen.
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