Labour is normalising our new age of mass migration
The Government is bound to be pleased with the new net migration statistics from the Office of National Statistics (ONS). Numbers have fallen by around 40 per cent, to 431,000 last year. After the media firestorm over his 'island of strangers' speech, Keir Starmer might well feel that he's fulfilled his promise to 'finally take back control' of the borders.
That would be premature, however. Net migration at that level is still a six-figure increase on the levels before the 2016 Brexit referendum, which was viewed as intolerable then. At this rate, Britain is still receiving the equivalent of the population of Bristol every year and would have added an extra 2 million people by 2029. The gross, as opposed to net, figure shows that nearly 1 million immigrants have arrived in the last recorded year. If the Prime Minister really thinks that mass immigration caused 'incalculable' damage to Britain, then he must think that it is still unacceptably high.
The population of foreign-born people in Britain is at a record high of 11.4 million, with Karl Williams of the Centre For Policy Studies pointing out that a staggering 1 in 25 of people in Britain arrived here in the last four years. The number of immigrants granted indefinite leave to remain has increased, meaning that the share of the population with foreign origins will grow.
That is a historically unprecedented demographic shift, which is already reshaping the country culturally. With immigration flows that high, integration will also prove difficult, if not impossible. In addition, with the number of new houses built only enough for around half of the new arrivals, the cost of housing will continue to increase.
In truth, this reduction is largely a result of restrictions brought in by Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick in the dying days of the last Conservative government. Although there have been more restrictions floated by the current Labour Government in their Immigration White Paper, these have yet to be enacted, and probably won't be for months to come. Plans for a Youth Mobility Visa with the EU, especially if it allows dependents, could easily see numbers begin to creep back up.
The Prime Minister therefore needs to bring in greater restrictions soon. He can take heart that these dramatic reductions were the result of sensible restrictions on some dependents and an increase in the skilled visa salary requirement. With the new ONS figures showing that 81,000 came here on work visas but were outnumbered by their 132,000 dependents, as well as large numbers coming on family visas or student visas, further restrictions could lower numbers without affecting how many workers come.Indeed, despite the predictions of critics, the large drop in net migration hasn't produced the economic problems they foretold.
Greater restrictions will also be necessary because the net migration figures for prior years are often subsequently revised upwards. In 2023 net migration turned out to be 22 per cent higher and in 2022 it was 44 per cent higher than initially calculated. If that proves to be the case again, then the Prime Minister's promise to reduce immigration 'significantly' will end up looking very hollow.
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