Early insights into the ‘26 governor's race

IN MEMORIAM — Today marks nine years since 49 people were killed and 53 more were injured at the Pulse Nightclub mass shooting in Orlando. Gov. RON DESANTIS ordered flags to be flown at half-staff and in a statement called the attack 'a horrific act of terrorism.' For the first time starting Wednesday, survivors and families of loved ones who were lost have been able to walk through the building before it gets demolished, Spectrum News reports. A remembrance ceremony will take place at 5:30 p.m. at First United Methodist Church of Orlando. (Livestream.)
Good morning and welcome to Thursday.
A new poll provides a super-early glimpse into the 2026 governor's race, one week after former Rep. DAVID JOLLY filed to run as a Democrat.
Other candidates could still get into the contest; the primary won't happen until August 2026. But for now, President DONALD TRUMP-endorsed Rep. BYRON DONALDS is the only major candidate on the Republican side to file to run.
That's why the poll, from Victory Insights, compared both candidates to see where they stand.
The result? Donalds leads Jolly by 5.4 percent among 600 likely Florida voters. Donalds' lead was unsurprising, given the state has now turned red as far as active voter registrations are concerned. But Jolly took the report as good news.
'This election is about change versus more of the same,' he told Playbook. 'We are building a coalition to attack the affordability crisis and bring generational change. I'm not surprised polls are now reflecting that. I feel very good about this race.'
While this poll's margin appears to be narrow, considering Gov. RON DESANTIS won his reelection by 19 points in 2022 and President DONALD TRUMP won the state by 13 points, Victory Insights' senior pollster BEN GALBRAITH told Playbook he expects whoever the Republican nominee is to carry the race by double digits. That's thanks to how much undecided voters lean Republican in the state — 17 points. Should those votes break for Donalds, he said, then his margin of victory would be closer to 11 points.
As of now, the poll found about one-third of voters haven't decided who they'll support because they don't know Donalds or Jolly. That means both candidates have an opportunity to reintroduce themselves to Florida — or to define each other in the many months until the 2026 general election, should each wind up being their party's nominee.
The Donalds campaign's chief strategist, RYAN SMITH, predicted Donalds would be Florida's next governor 'because he is the proven conservative fighter endorsed by President Trump.' Galbraith also wrote in his analysis that because 43 percent of Florida Republicans define themselves as 'MAGA' through support for Trump, they'd be likely to go with his pick.
The polling did not evaluate support for state Sen. JASON PIZZO, who recently dropped his Democratic registration and plans to run for governor as an independent.
As far as the cash contest, Donalds is way ahead. He raised more than $12 million in the five weeks after announcing his run for governor, first quarter reports showed. More recent filings show his political committee got a $1 million check from GOP megadonor RICHARD UIHLEIN, the president of packing supply giant Uline. Earlier this month the Winklevoss twins (of Facebook fame, now in crypto) gave him $250,000 apiece.
Jolly's fundraising shows he has raised a low-six-figures total toward his political committee, Florida 2026. Most donations were lower than $1,000. His largest contribution was $100,000 from BARBARA STIEFEL, a Coral Gables philanthropist and pharmaceutical heiress. He also received $25,000 from Charles R. Wall Trust in Colorado, $10,000 from Democratic donor LAURIE SCHECTER and art designer CARLOS ANDRADE.
MITCHELL BERGER, a major Democratic party fundraiser and prominent Fort Lauderdale attorney who represented former Vice President Al Gore in the post-2000 election Florida lawsuits, contributed $5,000.
FLORIDIAN GETS BOOTED AT DNC — The Democratic National Committee removed DAVID HOGG as vice chair Wednesday evening amid his threats to primary incumbents he called 'ineffective,' POLITICO's Elena Schneider reports. The party removed him through virtual vote because of a procedural complaint, and though Hogg, 25, had the opportunity to run for the seat again starting today, he said he wouldn't be doing so and would instead focus on his political action committee, Leaders We Deserve.
Hogg became a nationally known figure after the mass shooting in Parkland, working at March for Our Lives to successfully push for new gun restrictions in Florida. His removal from the position gives Florida Democrats less clout within the national party at a time when they've been trying to claw their way back to relevance, urging national donors not to give up on investing here.
The Florida Democratic Party had opposed efforts to remove Hogg in May, saying the party had been in 'desperate need of young, innovative leadership' and that the party should honor the vote tally in support of Hogg.
Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com.
... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...
OH LÁ LÁ! Au revoir, Tallahassee budget meetings (which ended up not happening on Wednesday). DeSantis is traveling to France next week on an international trade and business mission right around the time legislators say they want to wrap up the budget. The governor will also be attending the Paris Air Show.
DeSantis' office said in a statement that the mission would 'highlight Florida's status as a global hub for aerospace, aviation defense and emerging technologies' and promote new partnerships. Among those joining are state Commerce Secretary ALEX KELLY, Transportation Secretary JARED PERDUE, Secretary of State CORD BYRD and Space Florida President ROB LONG. DeSantis is following in former Gov. RICK SCOTT's tradition of attending the air show and doing trade meetings.
Asked about the cost of the trip, EMILY HETHERINGTON of the state Commerce Department said private businesses and institutions like universities would pay their own way.
'SelectFlorida does extensive legwork before each trade mission to gather as many sponsorships as possible to offset costs and minimize the impact to taxpayers,' she said. 'In return, we expect the mission to produce enormous investments and jobs brought to Florida that far exceed costs. Additionally, the showcasing Florida companies generate significant returns that are brought back to the state of Florida.'
The governor's last global trip was to Italy in November, and his office hasn't supplied POLITICO with requested records from that mission. They included a request for documents detailing expenses, the cost of a private concert featuring ANDREA BOCELLI and the cost of the charter jet the governor used.
PARKS WHISTLEBLOWER IS BACK, SEEKING $50K IN DAMAGES — 'The fired state employee who leaked plans to develop nine Florida state parks with golf courses, hotels and other amenities claims in a new lawsuit that Gov. Ron DeSantis' administration retaliated against him,' reports Max Chenes of the Tampa Bay Times.
'Whistleblower James Gaddis alleges in a lawsuit that he received 'disparate treatment and retaliation' from DeSantis, the former head of the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, Shawn Hamilton, and the agency's human resources director, Jake Vick, after he released information on the secret plans.'
IN THE WORKS — 'Florida could be poised to make it easier for people with developmental and intellectual disabilities to maintain their Medicaid services,' reports Christine Sexton of the Florida Phoenix.
'The latest round of budget negotiations between the House and Senate includes a proposal by the House to eliminate a requirement for people with IDD to annually be redetermined eligible for the health care safety net program for the poor, elderly, and disabled. If approved once, they would be presumptively eligible the rest of their lives unless they no longer qualify for Medicaid or their condition changes.'
STATE FOSTER CARE WORKING WITH ICE — 'Florida child welfare authorities turned over a 17-year-old foster child to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents, sparking intense criticism that the action could hinder efforts to protect children in the state's large immigrant communities,' report the Miami Herald's Carol Marbin Miller, Ana Ceballos and Syra Ortiz Blanes.
'The Honduran teen was removed from his Pensacola foster home Monday morning — in handcuffs and shackles — and transferred immediately into ICE custody. The boy and his mother had crossed the southwest border into the U.S. without permission, sources familiar with the case told the Miami Herald.'
PENINSULA AND BEYOND
PAYDAY REVEALED — 'The University of West Florida is offering Manny Diaz Jr. a $643,000 salary to serve as the school's interim president in a deal that would double what he earned as the state's education commissioner,' reports POLITICO's Andrew Atterbury.
'The former state lawmaker, under a contract the UWF Board of Trustees is considering Thursday, is slated to take over July 14 and serve for no more than a year — provided there is a successful presidential search.'
The proposal is 'higher than the $323,989 pay afforded to the state's top K-12 education official. It also is about $107,000 higher than the base salary of previous President Martha Saunders, who resigned in May amid scrutiny by the DeSantis administration.'
— 'Gang violence in Haiti has displaced nearly 1.3 million people. It's a new record,' reports Jacqueline Charles of the Miami Herald.
— 'Separated from kids in Cuba and Haiti by Trump travel ban, parents plead for help,' by the Miami Herald's Nora Gámez Torres and Jacqueline Charles.
— 'South Florida-based Silver Airways shuts down, stranding travelers,' reports David Lyons of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
...HURRICANE HOLE...
COMING TO AN END — 'Trump said on Tuesday he planned to start 'phasing out' the Federal Emergency Management Agency after the hurricane season and that states would receive less federal aid to respond to natural disasters,' Reuters' Nathan Layne reports. 'Trump also said he planned to distribute disaster relief funds directly from the president's office.'
— 'Risky business: More insurers willing to back Florida property, but how healthy are they?' by Anne Geggis of the Palm Beach Post.
CAMPAIGN MODE
MIAMI MAYOR CANDIDATE — 'Emilio Gonzalez may seem to be an odd choice in preaching the MAGA gospel,' reports Stephen Dinan of The Washington Times. 'He worked in the George W. Bush administration running U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and then returned to Miami, where he served as CEO of Miami International Airport and city manager.
'Mr. Gonzalez emerged as a major critic of President Biden's immigration policy and became a founding member of Veterans for Trump, a bilingual surrogate for candidate Donald Trump. He was a transition team member for President-elect Trump and has just been named a senior fellow at the Trump-connected America First Policy Institute. Now, Mr. Gonzalez is pursuing a bid to become mayor of Miami. He said the city needs the kind of shake-up that Mr. Trump delivered to Washington.'
TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP
BIG BEAUTIFUL REIMBURSEMENT — 'Trump's Big Beautiful Bill sets aside $300 million during the next four years to compensate counties and municipalities that provide security for the president,' reports Mike Diamond of the Palm Beach Post. 'Palm Beach County will benefit if the U.S. Senate approves the bill and Trump signs it, which he has said he will do.'
ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN
THEY DREAMED A DREAM — Rep. RANDY FINE (R-Fla.) and state Sen. JOE GRUTERS (R-Sarasota) were among Trump's guests at the Kennedy Center on Wednesday night to see 'Les Misérables.'
— 'Florida man convicted of posing as flight attendant to score more than 100 free flights,' per Sergio Candido of CBS News Miami.
BIRTHDAYS: Sally Bradshaw, Tallahassee bookstore owner and former chief of staff and campaign adviser to Jeb Bush ... state Rep. Kim Daniels ... Alex Castellanos of Purple Strategies ... former state Rep. Neil Combee ... Steve Bovo, former Hialeah mayor now at Corcoran Partners.

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