logo
How has the approach to handling Iran's nuclear programme changed?

How has the approach to handling Iran's nuclear programme changed?

RTÉ News​5 days ago

For decades, the international community has wrung its hands over Iran's nuclear programme, fretting over the Islamic dictatorship's potential to build a bomb.
Strategies on what to do about it have largely bounced from sticks to carrots and back again with little agreement - to this day - on the best approach.
Now Israel, with US support, has chosen the stick.
So how did we get here?
In testimony to the United States Senate in 1992, the then-director of the US Central Intelligence Agency Robert Gates said that Iran's attempts to acquire nuclear weapons could be a "serious problem" within five years or less.
The US started pressurising and incentivising Iran's nuclear suppliers - Russia and China - to scale back cooperation with Tehran, which was largely successful.
Iran insisted its nuclear development was for civilian purposes only.
But, by the turn of the century, the International Atomic Energy Agency investigations into Iran's undeclared nuclear activities revealed traces of high uranium enrichment at a site in Natanz.
And soon, the populist President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was threatening to "wipe Israel off the face of the earth".
The US quickly imposed sanctions with the UN Security Council following suit in what would be the first of several rounds of punitive measures imposed by the UN, EU and individual countries.
Israel called for the international community to keep the pressure on.
Benjamin Netanyahu, then and now prime minister of Israel turned up at the UN General Assembly in 2012 with an illustration of a bomb depicting, he said, Iran's nuclear capability.
"The relevant question is not when Iran will get the bomb," he told delegates. "The relevant question is at what stage can we no longer stop Iran from getting the bomb," he said.
But then, in 2015, the mood changed.
Then-US President Barack Obama oversaw a historic deal offering sanctions relief in exchange for Iran limiting its nuclear capabilities.
Known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it won the support of major powers including all five permanent members of the UN Security Council – the US, UK, France, Russia and China, as well as Germany.
Mr Netanyahu remained staunchly opposed.
He said the deal "could well threaten the survival of my country and the future of my people".
Far from blocking Iran from getting a nuclear bomb, he said, the deal paved the path to a bomb.
Donald Trump agreed, and as president in 2018, he pulled out of the deal.
Some analysts saw that as a costly move that prompted Tehran to redouble its efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon, away from the prying eyes of international inspectors.
But others believed that Iran would have pursued nuclear capability regardless and agreed with Mr Trump that it was a "horrible one-sided deal".
Nevertheless, by the time he came to power a second time, his intelligence chiefs appeared to have concluded that Iran was not, in fact, close to developing a nuclear warhead.
In March, the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told a Senate hearing that the intelligence community assessed that Iran was "not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme leader Khomeini has not authorised the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003".
"We continue to monitor closely if Tehran decides to re-authorise its nuclear weapons program," she said.
But last week as Israel began its assault on Iran's nuclear and military sites, Israeli officials framed it as a pre-emptive act of self-defence.
"If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time. It could be a year. It would be within a few months, less than a year".
"This is a clear and present danger to Israel's survival," he added.
In his remarks, Mr Netanyahu appeared to reference a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency that found Iran had enough uranium enriched to 60% purity – a significant step towards the 90% needed – to potentially make nine nuclear bombs.
The body also declared Iran to be in breach of its non-proliferation agreements.
But that should not be a pretext for military action, said Susi Snyder of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.
"If every country that was in noncompliance with its non-proliferation agreements - as cited by the IAEA - were bombed, we would have seen bombs blow up all over the planet," she told RTÉ News.
"The reason that the IAEA reports is in order to alert the international community to enable a diplomatic solution not to be used as an excuse for attack," she said.
But now that Israel has bombed Iran's nuclear sites, what happens next?
Trita Parsi, Iran expert at the Quincy Institute, a think tank, expects that the Iranian leadership will be reluctant to engage in further negotiations to limit its nuclear capability.
"Support for acquiring a nuclear weapon has surged among Iran's elite and broader society in response to the Israeli bombings," he said
"This has raised the political cost for Tehran to agree to limit enrichment to civilian levels, making a deal more difficult," he added.
The question now is whether Israel's strikes have dealt a decisive blow to Iran's nuclear ambitions.
"Despite inflicting significant damage on the Natanz nuclear site, Israel has failed to penetrate the far more critical and heavily fortified Fordow facility," Mr Parsi said.
Rafael Mariano Grossi, the head of the IAEA, said the Friday attack destroyed the above-ground part of the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz, one of the plants at which Iran was producing uranium enriched up to 60%.
However, he said there was no indication of a physical attack on the "underground cascade hall containing part of the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and the main Fuel Enrichment Plant".
Much of Iran's secretive programme remains underground.
But this conflict is not over yet.
World leaders are increasingly anxious to see a return to the negotiating table.
President Trump said he wanted Israel and Iran to do a deal.
And last night, European ministers reportedly held a call with their Iranian counterpart, urging Tehran to resume talks and refrain from escalating the conflict with Israel, according to Reuters.
The international community may once again find itself having to choose between carrots and sticks.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Iran threatens 'devastating' response to Israel's attacks
Iran threatens 'devastating' response to Israel's attacks

RTÉ News​

time2 hours ago

  • RTÉ News​

Iran threatens 'devastating' response to Israel's attacks

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian warned of a "more devastating" retaliation should Israel's nine-day bombing campaign continue, saying the Islamic republic would not halt its nuclear programme "under any circumstances". Israel said it had killed three more Iranian commanders in its unprecedented offensive, and Foreign Minister Gideon Saar claimed Iran's alleged progress towards a nuclear weapon had been set back by two years. "We will do everything that we can do there in order to remove this threat," Mr Saar told the German newspaper Bild, adding that Israel would keep up its onslaught. Israel and Iran have traded wave after wave of devastating strikes since Israel launched its aerial campaign on 13 June, saying Iran was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon. Yesterday, Israel said it had attacked Iran's Isfahan nuclear site for a second time, with the UN nuclear watchdog reporting that a centrifuge manufacturing workshop had been hit. Later, Iran's Mehr news agency said Israel had launched strikes on the southern city of Shiraz, which hosts military bases. And early this morning, Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced that a "vast" wave of "drones" had been launched against "strategic targets" across Israel. Iran denies seeking an atomic bomb, and Mr Pezeshkian said its right to pursue a civilian nuclear programme "cannot be taken away... by threats or war". 'Not prepared to negotiate' In a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Mr Pezeshkian said Iran was "ready to discuss and cooperate to build confidence in the field of peaceful nuclear activities". "However, we do not agree to reduce nuclear activities to zero under any circumstances," he added, according to Iran's official IRNA news agency. Referring to the Israeli attacks, he said: "Our response to the continued aggression of the Zionist regime will be more devastating." Iran's armed forces threatened to strike shipments of military aid to Israel "from any country". Israel's main arms supplier is the United States, whose President Donald Trump warned on Friday that Iran had a "maximum" of two weeks to avoid possible American air strikes as the US weighed whether to join Israel's campaign. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was in Istanbul yesterday for a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation to discuss the conflict. Top diplomats from Britain, France and Germany met Mr Araghchi in Geneva on Friday and urged him to resume nuclear talks with the United States that had been derailed by the war. But Mr Araghchi said: "Iran is ready to consider diplomacy once again, and once aggression is stopped and the aggressor is held accountable for the crimes committed." "We're not prepared to negotiate with them (the Americans) anymore, as long as the aggression continues," he added. Hundreds killed Mr Trump, dismissive of European diplomatic efforts, said he was unlikely to ask Israel to stop its attacks to get Iran back to the table. "If somebody's winning, it's a little bit harder to do," he said of Israel's campaign. Any US involvement would likely feature powerful bunker-busting bombs that no other country possesses to destroy an underground uranium enrichment facility in Fordo. US B-2 stealth bombers capable of carrying bunker busters were flying across the Pacific Ocean, according to tracking data and media reports, fuelling speculation over their intended mission. Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen threatened to resume their attacks on US vessels in the Red Sea if the United States joined the war, despite a recent ceasefire agreement. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said that, based on its sources and media reports, at least 657 people had been killed in Iran, including 263 civilians. Iran's health ministry gave a toll of more than 400 people killed in the Israeli strikes. Iran's retaliatory strikes have killed at least 25 people in Israel, according to official figures. The Israeli military said it had launched a fresh wave of strikes in the area of southern Iran's Bandar Abbas, targeting drone storage sites and a weapons facility. Iran's Tasnim news agency said air defences were activated in the area. Overnight, Iran said it had targeted central Israel with drones and missiles. Israeli rescuers said there were no casualties after an Iranian drone struck a residential building. Revolutionary Guards spokesman Mohammad Ali Naini said Iran's armed forces had "hit 14 strategic military" targets in the overnight attack, including Haifa's Sail Tower, the city's oil refinery and the Ovda air base. On the Mediterranean island of Cyprus, Israel said that an Iranian terror plot targeting Israeli citizens had been "thwarted". 'Tired' Israel's National Public Diplomacy Directorate said more than 450 missiles had been fired at the country so far, along with about 400 drones. In Tel Aviv, where residents have faced regular Iranian strikes for nine days, some expressed growing fatigue under the constant threat from Iran. The streets of Tehran, meanwhile, were still largely quiet yesterday, though a few cafes and restaurants were open. Western powers have repeatedly expressed concerns about the expansion of Iran's nuclear programme, questioning in particular the country's accelerated uranium enrichment. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi has said Iran is the only country without nuclear weapons to enrich uranium to 60%. However, his agency had "no indication" of the existence of a "systematic programme" in Iran to produce a bomb.

B-2 bombers moving to Guam amid Middle East tensions, US officials say
B-2 bombers moving to Guam amid Middle East tensions, US officials say

Irish Examiner

time3 hours ago

  • Irish Examiner

B-2 bombers moving to Guam amid Middle East tensions, US officials say

The United States is moving B-2 bombers to the Pacific island of Guam, two US officials told Reuters on Saturday, as President Donald Trump weighs whether the United States should take part in Israel's strikes against Iran. It was unclear whether the bomber deployment was tied to Middle East tensions. The B-2 can be equipped to carry America's 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, designed to destroy targets deep underground. That is the weapon that experts say could be used to strike Iran's nuclear program, including Fordow. The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, declined to disclose any further details. One official said no forward orders had been given yet to move the bombers beyond Guam. They did not say how many B-2 bombers are being moved. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Experts and officials are closely watching to see whether the B-2 bombers will move forward to a US-British military base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia. Experts say that Diego Garcia is in an ideal position to operate in the Middle East. The United States had B-2 bombers on Diego Garcia up until last month, when they were replaced with B-52 bombers. Israel said on Saturday it had killed a veteran Iranian commander during attacks by both sides in the more than week-long air war, while Tehran said it would not negotiate over its nuclear program while under threat. Israel says Iran was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons, while Iran says its atomic program is only for peaceful purposes. Trump has said he would take up to two weeks to decide whether the United States should enter the conflict on Israel's side, enough time "to see whether or not people come to their senses," he said. Reuters was first to report this week the movement of a large number of tanker aircraft to Europe and other military assets to the Middle East, including the deployment of more fighter jets. An aircraft carrier in the Indo-Pacific is also heading to the Middle East. Read More Nuclear diplomacy stuck, Israel says it killed top Iran commander

US moves bombers to Pacific as Trump mulls attacking Iran
US moves bombers to Pacific as Trump mulls attacking Iran

RTÉ News​

time7 hours ago

  • RTÉ News​

US moves bombers to Pacific as Trump mulls attacking Iran

The US is moving B-2 stealth bombers to the Pacific island of Guam, two officials told Reuters, as President Donald Trump weighs whether the United States should take part in Israel's strikes against Iran. It was unclear whether the bomber deployment is tied to Middle East tensions. The B-2 can be equipped to carry America's 14-ton GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, designed to destroy targets deep underground. That is the weapon that experts claim could be used to strike Iran's nuclear program, including Fordow. The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, declined to disclose any further details. One official said no forward orders had been given yet to move the bombers beyond Guam. They did not say how many B-2 bombers are being moved. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Experts and officials are closely watching to see whether the B-2 bombers will move forward to a US-British military base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia. Experts said that Diego Garcia is in an ideal position to operate in the Middle East from. The United States had B-2 bombers on Diego Garcia up until last month, when they were replaced with B-52 bombers. The Iranian President @drpezeshkian called me. I reiterated my firm demand: Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris must be released. Their inhumane detention is unjust. I expect them to return to France. I also expressed my deep concern about Iran's nuclear program.… — Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) June 21, 2025 Meanwhile, Israel claimed it had killed a veteran Iranian commander during attacks by both sides in the more than week-long air war, while Iran said it would not negotiate over its nuclear program while under threat. Israel claims Iran was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons, while Iran said its atomic program is only for peaceful purposes. However, Israel is widely assumed to possess nuclear weapons. It neither confirms nor denies this. Mr Trump has said he would take up to two weeks to decide whether the US should bomb Iran for Israel, enough time "to see whether or not people come to their senses", he said Israel said it had attacked Iran's Isfahan nuclear site for a second time after its air force announced it had also launched salvos against missile storage and launch sites in the centre of the country. The Israeli army later claimed it was striking military infrastructure in southwest Iran. Earlier this week, a large number of US tanker aircraft were moved to Europe and other military assets to the Middle East, including the deployment of more fighter jets. An aircraft carrier in the Indo-Pacific is also heading to the Middle East. Israel's attacks have killed 639 people in Iran, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a US-based human rights organisation that tracks Iran. In Israel, 24 civilians have died in Iranian strikes, according to authorities. Reuters could not independently verify casualty figures for either side. Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed that the military killed a veteran commander in the Quds force, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' overseas arm, in a strike in an apartment in Iran's Qom. The veteran commander killed was identified as Saeed Izadi, who led the Palestine Corps of the Quds Force. Talks show little progress Iran has repeatedly targeted Tel Aviv where some critical Israeli military assets are also located. Israel said it had struck dozens of military targets, including missile production sites, a research body it claims was involved in nuclear weapons development in Tehran and military facilities in western and central Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said there was no room for negotiations with the US "until Israeli aggression stops". But he arrived in Geneva yesterday for talks with European foreign ministers at which Europe hopes to establish a path back to diplomacy. US President Donald Trump reiterated that he would take as long as two weeks to decide whether the United States should enter the conflict on Israel's side, enough time "to see whether or not people come to their senses", he said. Mr Trump said he was unlikely to press Israel to scale back its airstrikes to allow negotiations to continue. "I think it's very hard to make that request right now. If somebody is winning, it's a little bit harder to do than if somebody is losing, but we're ready, willing and able, and we've been speaking to Iran, and we'll see what happens," he said. The Geneva talks produced little signs of progress, and Mr Trump said he doubted negotiators would be able to secure a ceasefire. "Iran doesn't want to speak to Europe. They want to speak to us. Europe is not going to be able to help in this one," Mr Trump said. Hundreds of US citizens have fled Iran since the air war began, according to a US State Department cable seen by journalists. Israel's envoy to the United Nations, Danny Danon, told the Security Council his country would not stop its attacks "until Iran's nuclear threat is dismantled". Iran's UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani called for Security Council action and said his country was alarmed by reports that the US might join the war. Russia and China demanded immediate de-escalation. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran was ready to discuss limitations on uranium enrichment but that it would reject any proposal that barred it from enriching uranium completely, "especially now under Israel's strikes".

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store