What is SA's real jobless rate?
After Kabelo Khumalo's article 'Capitec CEO argues SA's jobless rate as low as 10%' in Business Day, he sits down with Arena's editor-at-large S'thembiso Msomi to break down the issue further.
Is it true or not? How are we collecting the data and what more do we need to add to the conversation?
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
IOL News
11 hours ago
- IOL News
The ethical blind spots in SA's unemployment stats
South Africa's high unemployment also stands out globally. The writer says South Africa's metrics function as biopolitical instruments that perpetuate apartheid-era exclusion by rendering Black economic agency statistically non-existent. Image: File THIS opinion piece responds to former Statistician-General Pali Lehohla's article Debating the Labour Force Survey – A Response to Fourie's Critique. It serves as a rebuttal to his critique of my earlier article, Why Capitec's CEO Is Forcing SA to Rethink Its Unemployment Narrative, in which I argued that South Africa's unemployment figures fail to reflect the lived economic realities of the majority Black population. Lehohla claims that my article has 'amplified the debate' and insists on setting the record straight before it spirals into misinformation and speculation. However, my article did not reject StatsSA data outright. Instead, I argued that South Africa's high unemployment statistics are shaped by a biopolitical statistical system that invisibly erases informal economic activity and Black labour. This is largely due to restrictive measurement methodologies and the active suppression of the informal sector, unlike in other developing countries. I proposed the adoption of hybrid metrics and structural reforms to more accurately capture and support this vital, yet uncounted, segment of the economy. My stance aligns with UCT economist Haroon Bhorat, who engages constructively with Fourie's arguments rather than dismissing them entirely. Lehohla, however, dismisses Fourie's estimate of a 10% unemployment rate — based on informal economic activity — as 'abracadabra', 'lying', and the rant of a 'random businessman who profits from Black communities'. His anger masks a deeper crisis: South Africa's economic measurement system, though methodologically sound, is philosophically ill-equipped to account for the informal, digital, and survivalist nature of the majority-Black workforce. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ Lehohla defends StatsSA's unemployment figures based on their adherence to International Labour Organisation (ILO) standards and the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS). Yet, I argue that this technical rigour obscures vast swaths of economic activity. For instance, a township hairdresser or street vendor without formal records becomes statistically invisible. This creates a profound ethical issue: stark racial disparities in unemployment, with Black South Africans facing an expanded unemployment rate of 40%, compared to just 7% for white South Africans. South Africa's high unemployment also stands out globally. Countries like Mexico (55% informal, 4.5% unemployment) and Nigeria (85% informal, 3.34% unemployment) include self-reported informal work in their statistics. In contrast, South Africa's metrics function as biopolitical instruments that perpetuate apartheid-era exclusion by rendering Black economic agency statistically non-existent. Bhorat notes that UCT's Development Policy Research Unit (DPRU) consistently shows South Africa having one of the highest unemployment rates globally (33.6%), but also one of the lowest informality rates (about 16.3%). He highlights how most emerging economies address unemployment not by creating more formal jobs, but by allowing informal work to flourish. DPRU research further suggests that South Africa's unusually high unemployment is not primarily due to poor job growth or strict labour laws, but because our economy actively suppresses the informal sector. My advice to DPRU is not to shy away from confronting the moral failures or societal consequences that their data may obscure. Lehohla's refusal to engage meaningfully illustrates the difficulty of escaping the grip of orthodox economics and its limitations. Orthodox economics treats the economy — and by extension, social life — as a predictable machine operating in equilibrium. When official statistics diverge from lived experiences, the social contract built on citizens sharing data begins to erode, revealing a deep crisis within the discipline of economics. Unlike Adam Smith — who grounded market value in ethics and social relations in The Theory of Moral Sentiments — modern economics has severed this moral root, prioritising abstract mathematical models over real-world complexity. Joseph Stiglitz warns that GDP-centric metrics obscure true well-being. Persistent youth unemployment amidst trillions of rands in township transactions is not merely an error — it reflects a flawed measurement paradigm. Kenneth Boulding adds that modern economics builds on classical works like The Wealth of Nations and Das Kapital, which contain unrealised 'evolutionary potential' absent in contemporary models. He cautions that excluding economic history from graduate education produces 'idiots savant' — technically proficient economists who lack institutional understanding and historical insight. A balanced synthesis of modern analytical tools and classical wisdom can help bridge this divide, fostering critical engagement with economics as both a technical and humanistic discipline. Lehohla's defence rests on rigid positivism — the belief in the 'holy' authority of statistical processes — yet this glosses over the ethical roots of economic thought. For Smith, wealth was defined by the ability to command others' labour — a social relationship, not a cold data point. Modern economics, however, has decoupled itself from these normative foundations. As Stiglitz points out, most metrics conceal inequality and human suffering, reducing development to arithmetic rather than justice. This philosophical drift is evident in South Africa: while StatsSA reports rising unemployment, Capitec Bank documents over R2 trillion in township transactions — a vibrant economic reality invisible to official instruments. This disconnect signals a deeper crisis in economics. Equilibrium models and optimisation problems eclipse historical nuance, cultural dynamics, and power relations. Boulding warned of this technocratic drift, describing modern economists as technicians fluent in calculus but blind to social texture. In a direct response to me, Lehohla stated: 'There is no legacy to protect on my part, Bhungane (my totem), nor language to polish. When a lie is told, there is no reason to give it a different word. It is simply a 'lie,' and when an argument does not make sense, it is called nonsense in the English language, and when nonsense is given wheels and wings to fly, it is called 'rubbish.' Those who wish to opine should do so from research rather than from a hailer.' While I may not use his hyperbolic or confrontational language, I am neither uninformed nor inexperienced in public discourse. I have an academic and policy track record that makes me far more than 'a hailer.' As many have rightly pointed out, shouting or using aggressive language does not strengthen an argument. We must allow space for multiple viewpoints to ensure inclusive policymaking around poverty, inequality, land reform, and unemployment. Finally, Lehohla attributes South Africa's unique unemployment situation to two key factors: agricultural activity tied to land ownership and high levels of economic concentration. He argues that these factors challenge simplistic international comparisons and emphasise the centrality of the land question in shaping employment outcomes. No. Lehohla is deliberately conflating issues to obscure the fact that his revered unemployment metrics miss the ethical forest for the numerical trees. Siyayibanga le economy! * Siyabonga Hadebe is an independent commentator based in Geneva on socio-economic, political and global matters. ** The views expressed here do not reflect those of the Sunday Independent, Independent Media, or IOL. Get the real story on the go: Follow the Sunday Independent on WhatsApp.
The Herald
19 hours ago
- The Herald
Time to go back to the drawing board on early childhood education
What type of society is this? What have our priorities been for the past 30 years, especially in the education sector? Where have we been? Social scientists and educational psychologists opine that the human brain is the last organ to develop to its fullest potential. Research indicates that it takes 20 years for the brain to get to the point where it is fully developed, meaning that the work that is done to develop the child from adolescence to early adulthood is of vital importance to engender a culture of meaning, purpose and ultimately a drive to succeed. If you miss it then, forget about the potential you will derive from the adult who has been neglected from the early years. Is it surprising that we have the challenges that we face in SA? Rising crime rates, homelessness, unemployment and general helplessness have come to define the experiences of many in our society. The question we ought to ask is what is being done to instill the right focus on early education to ensure we have better results in the future. This is not only about demonstrating how we benchmark ourselves against other nations on literacy and education. It's also about fulfilling an agenda set by the June 16 generation to create a country and a people that will hold their heads high and take their rightful place among the community of nations. A key challenge that most researchers point to is the absence of cognitive attention among our children at the age they are when they take these tests. This refers to the slow cognitive development experienced by a majority of our children in that age group. Studies such as the University of Pretoria's point to a lack of teaching skills among educators who teach at those levels, the absence of parental involvement in the education of their children and other socioeconomic challenges as the major causes of these challenges. My own assessment is that we generally don't have a vision as a country when it comes to defining the society that we want. SA's budget for basic education far exceeds that of many developing nations that face similar challenges. The results, however, are far short of those achieved in some of those countries.
The Herald
19 hours ago
- The Herald
Bana Pele Roadmap to ensure one-million kids access quality ECD programmes by 2030
SA has set a bold and urgent goal: by 2030, every child aged three to five should be able to access a quality early childhood development (ECD) programme. This vision, outlined in the department of basic education's 2030 Bana Pele Roadmap, is about more than expanding services. It's about changing how we work together to give every child, especially the most vulnerable, the strong start they deserve. After all, Bana Pele means 'putting children first'. The 2030 roadmap was recently endorsed by leaders from government, business, and civil society at the Bana Pele Leadership Summit, which marked a clear mindset shift from fragmented programmes to co-ordinated action and from ambition to accountability. More than one million children between the ages of three and five do not attend any early learning programme, and only four out of ten are developmentally on track by age five. Without a strong foundation, many of these children begin school on the back foot, and some never catch up. To break this cycle, the roadmap outlines four collective commitments to expand access to an additional 200,000 children per year, reaching 1-million more by 2030. These are: putting children at the centre, working better together, funding smarter and raising the bar on quality. Every decision should begin with one question: Is this good for children? That means prioritising those who are most at risk of being left behind, breaking down the barriers that limit access, and creating safe, nurturing spaces where they can learn and thrive. It also means investing in the people who deliver ECD. SA's ECD workforce is on the frontlines of child development, employing more than 200,000 people, mostly Black women. Reaching the 2030 access target could double this number. Their contribution must be recognised through proper training and support. The Roadmap sets a target for 50% of principals and practitioners at registered programmes to complete accredited training and leadership development by 2030.
