AAP's entry could clutter Bihar's poll fray, split Opp votes in direct face-off
Ousted from power in Delhi, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), that was a constituent of the INDIA bloc in 2024 Lok Sabha elections, has announced to field candidates on all the 243 seats in Bihar and hopes to cash in on by raising the issues of 'BJP's failed promises to migrant Biharis, who constitute a significant number in Delhi'.
The announcement came from AAP Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh in Patna, but it remains to be seen if AAP would really go all the way, as it had backed out of election at the last moment in 2020 citing Covid and other factors and has never contested the state polls even at the peak of its popularity in Delhi.
'We will go to all the villages of Bihar and tell the people about the reality of the BJP, which had promised houses in place of jhuggis before Delhi election to migrant Biharis living there for 50 years, and is now demolishing their dwellings. We will present our model to the people of Bihar and field candidates on all 243 seats to seek their support,' he added.
The only time AAP contested in Bihar was in 2014, when it fielded candidates on 39 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats, but could win none. In 2015, it did not contest, but lent its support to the anti-BJP alliance. In 2019, its seat-sharing talks with the RJD and the Congress collapsed. In 2020, it again did not contest despite making an early announcement. This time it wants to go solo in Bihar, highlighting the plight of the migrants in Delhi under the BJP government, which came to power in Delhi last year ending the long run of AAP.
Political analysts feel that the entry of AAP in Bihar as an independent player could be an attempt to win over the Poorvanchalis, who are set to have deserted it after throwing their weight completely behind Arvind Kejriwal's party in 2015 and 2020, but hurt the cause of the INDIA bloc more than the NDA, as the presence of Jan Suraaj Party and the AIMIM of Assauddin Owaisi would only make the election multipolar to suit the BJP strategy.
'While the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the INDIA bloc are the major formations face to face in the forthcoming Bihar assembly election 2025 yet again, with margin of error likely to be small, the emergence of too many players apart from the two main formations would make the scene cluttered and confuse the voters to some extent, but in a multi-party democracy like ours it is not uncommon,' said former professor of the Tata Institute of Social Sciences Pushpendra.
He, however, said that with seat-sharing yet to be formalised in the two main formations, and pulls and pressure likely to intensify in the days to come, there was still time for the political climate to settle, which could throw a new alliance at the last moment. 'In politics, nothing can be ruled out, as a lot happens as part of the strategy to get one's arithmetic right even against odds,' he added.
Political analyst Prof NK Choudhary said that the entry of AAP could be an important factor, as Jan Suraaj Party is already there to challenge the dominance of the mainstream parties like the BJP, JD-U, RJD and the Congress, but it would not be easy to fit into Bihar's complex political reality guided by caste and region.
'For AAP, the move is clearly aimed at winning over the Bihar migrants in Delhi through their homes in Bihar, but everything does not happen the way one plans in politics, especially in Bihar. AIMIM has also made its intentions clear to field more candidates than in 2020, when it won five seats for the first time. More formations can take place in the days to come. But it will not be the merrier, as big players will have to watch out against small aberrations,' he added.
Political reactions to AAP's entry have been on the predictable lines, with the Congress leader Kanhaiya Kumar describing the move as an 'attempt to split votes to help the BJP'. Tejashwi Prasad Yadav said that Bihar was different from Delhi.
BJP, on the other hand, brushed aside AAP's foray into Bihar. 'Bihar people wiped out AAP from Delhi and they are a spent force now. Bihar does not look beyond the development model of the NDA government. The way the Centre is pouring funds in Bihar, development has been fast tracked and jobs are being provided in a big way. People will once again not look beyond NDA,' said Deputy CM Vijay Kumar Sinha.
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