Nuclear Golden Age: Huge Potential, Stubborn Obstacles
President Donald Trump's four executive orders mandating a great and fast leap forward for the nuclear power industry may seem to nuclear advocates like manna from heaven. But as it fell to earth, it appeared that the manna might be filled with empty calories.
Trump's directives outline an aggressive program of nuclear power growth. For starters, he wants to quadruple nuclear power production by 2050; shorten the licensing time to 18 months; and build 10 traditional, large light water reactors and a plethora of small modular reactors (SMRs).
The need for more nuclear power as fast as possible is palpable.
The big tech companies and their data centers are demanding vast new power supplies. They are facing constraints already dictated by a lack of power generating or by congested transmission lines. Large swaths of the country will soon be achingly short of power in times of extreme cold or abnormal heat, according to forecasts from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.
But there are roadblocks. Some are specific and some more generic. The biggest is, as always, money.
Nuclear sources across the board, from Arshad Mansoor of EPRI to James Schaefer of Guggenheim Partners, who is something of a Pied Piper for nuclear, say that for nuclear to move forward, the federal government must provide financing in the form of a 'backstop' to protect against runaway losses. So far, the Trump administration hasn't spoken to this.
Another money issue is tax credits.
The massive tax-cut bill now before the Senate seeks to phase out green tax credits, but treats nuclear power just a little kinder than wind and solar. It extends the tax credits longer, but these are only available to power plants which begin construction before 2029. Clearly, most contemplated new reactors will fall outside of that time window.
While everyone agrees that licensing nuclear plants takes too long, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is about to be hit with a tidal wave of new applications, many of those for SMRs.
These are challenging because they all have different designs, fuels, cooling systems, materials, vulnerabilities and strengths. They are new almost from the ground up and require a new regime of technical expertise to assess their safety.
The NRC and the electric utility industry and its nuclear component all face severe labor shortages.
Mark Menezes, president and CEO of the United States Energy Association, flagged the labor shortage as a threat to the energy supply future during a panel discussion of fusion development at the group's annual conference on May 15.
He recalled when the two new Vogtle Units were under construction as well as the mixed oxide fuel facility — later abandoned — at the Savannah River National Laboratory, there was a shortage of skilled workers in the South, from engineers to welders to laborers.
Clint Thurmon, vice president of Ferreira Power South, said April 30 on Digital 360, the weekly online webinar, that an acute shortage of linemen was limiting the growth of the electricity infrastructure.
In the same vein, new reactors are likely to run into the supply chain difficulties that are already plaguing the utilities, and which are likely to get worse.
Most bulk electrical equipment has been procured from China for half a century. Although new sources and domestic manufacture — particularly of transformers — is increasing, the shortage is severe and will continue even without big new demands adding to the pressure.
In the first golden age of nuclear power, roughly the 1960s, it surged: Ninety-nine reactors were built at 61 sites, according to the Energy Information Administration. It would be hard with the deteriorated nuclear base to achieve that today.
Some things will get easier. For example, virtual twins will facilitate the nuclear construction of the future. Many components and much of the fuel construction will be assisted with AI.
Still, the uncertainties are many. One of these is how much power from SMRs really costs. A driver of SMRs -- roughly 350 megawatts and less — is that they can be built in factories and that this will keep down the cost.
But as that hypothesis is yet to be proven, the real cost of power from SMRs isn't known, and there are likely to be wide variations in designs. Not every SMR will prove out nor will every SMR produce power at a competitive price.
There will be more nuclear power going forward, but how much and at what cost is, like all gold rushes, uncertain.
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