Trade Tracker: Jenny Harrington buys Ethan Allen
Jenny Harrington, CEO Gilman Hill Asset Management, joins CNBC's "Halftime Report" to explain why she's buying Ethan Allen.
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CNBC
an hour ago
- CNBC
Iran's parliament approves blocking Strait of Hormuz. Its closure will alienate Tehran further
In major move after U.S. struck Iranian nuclear sites, the country's parliament on Sunday reportedly approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, risking alienating its neighbors and trade partners. The decision to close the waterway now rests with the the country's national security council, and it's possibility has raised the specter of higher energy prices and aggravated geopolitical tensions, with Washington calling upon Beijing to prevent the strait's closure. But in all of this, it is Iran that stands to loose the most, which is why the possibility of a closure of the strait is low, experts said, discounting Tehran's rhetoric. Vanda Hari, founder of energy intelligence firm Vanda Insights, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" that the possibility of closure remains "absolutely minimalistic." If Iran blocks the strait, the country risks turning its neighboring oil producing countries into enemies and risks hostilities with them, she said. Furthermore, a closure would also provoke Iran's market in Asia, particularly China, which accounts for a majority of Iranian oil exports. "So very, very little to be achieved, and a lot of self inflicted harm that Iran could do" Hari said. Her view is supported by Andrew Bishop, senior partner and global head of policy research at advisory firm Signum Global Advisors. Iran will not want to antagonize China, he said, adding that disrupting supplies will also "put a target" on the country's own oil production, export infrastructure, and regime "at a time when there is little reason to doubt U.S. and Israeli resolve in being 'trigger-happy'." Clayton Seigle, senior fellow for Energy Security and Climate Change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that as China is "very dependent" on oil flows from the Gulf, not just Iran, "its national security interest really would value stabilization of the situation and a de-escalation enabling safe flows of oil and gas through the strait." There are currently there are no indications of threats to commercial shipping passing the waterway, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center. "U.S. associated vessels have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz without interruption, which is a positive sign for the immediate future." The Strait of Hormuz is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, and about 20% of the world's oil transits the waterway. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has described it as the "world's most important oil transit chokepoint." "Iran's operations in and around Hormuz are unlikely to be 'all or nothing' – but instead move along a sliding scale from total disruption to none at all," said Signum's Bishop. "The best strategy [for Iran] would be to rattle Hormuz oil flows just enough to hurt the U.S. via moderate upward price movement, but not enough to provoke a major U.S. response against Iran's oil production and export capacity," he added. On Sunday, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a post on X that pump prices in the U.S. could climb to $3.35-$3.50 per gallon in the days ahead, compared to the national average of $3.139 for the week of June 16. Should Iran decide to close the strait, it would likely use small boats for a partial blockade, or for a more complete solution, mine the waterway, according to David Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy. In a Sunday note, S&P Global Commodity Insights wrote that any Iranian closure of the strait would mean that not only Iran's own exports will be affected, but also those of nearby Gulf nations, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar. That would potentially remove over 17 billion barrels of oil from global markets, and affect regional refineries by causing feedstock shortages, the research firm said. The disruption to supply will impact Asia, Europe as well as North America. Besides oil, natural gas flows could also be "severely impacted," S&P said, with Qatar's gas exports of about 77 million metric tons per year potentially unable to reach key markets in Asia and Europe. Qatar's LNG exports represent about 20% of global LNG supply. "Alternative supply routes for Middle Eastern oil and gas are limited, with pipeline capacity insufficient to offset potential maritime disruptions through the Persian Gulf and Red Sea," S&P added. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia pointed out that "there is limited scope to bypass the Strait of Hormuz." Pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have only a spare capacity of 2.6 million barrels a day between them, while the strait oversees the transport of an estimated 20 million barrels of oil and oil products per day, the bank said in a note. All these present upside risk to energy prices, with Goldman Sachs estimating that the market is pricing in a geopolitical risk premium of $12. If oil flows through the strait were to drop by 50% for one month and then were to remain down by 10% for another 11 months, Brent is forecast to "briefly jump" to a peak of around $110, Goldman said. Brent oil futures currently stand at $78.95 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures were trading at $75.75.
CNBC
3 hours ago
- CNBC
Why global markets are brushing off U.S. strikes on Iran
The U.S. joining the war between Israel and Iran might seem like a geopolitical flashpoint that would send markets tumbling. Instead, investors are largely shrugging off the escalation, with many strategists believing the conflict to be contained — and even bullish for some risk assets. As of 1 p.m. Singapore time, the MSCI World index, which tracks over a thousand large and mid-cap companies from 23 developed markets, declined only 0.12%. Safe havens are also trading mixed, with the Japanese yen weakening 0.64% against the dollar, while spot gold prices slipped 0.23% to $3,360 per ounce. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.35%. In general, the market reactions after the U.S. strikes have been less aggressive, especially relative to just over a week ago when Israel launched airstrikes against Iran. "The markets view the attack on Iran as a relief with the nuclear threat now gone for the region," said Dan Ives, managing director at Wedbush, adding that he sees minimal risks of the Iran-Israel conflict spreading to the rest of the region and consequently more "isolated." While the gravity of the latest developments should not be dismissed, they are not seen as a systemic risk to global markets, other industry experts echoed. On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump said that the United States had attacked Iranian nuclear sites. Traders are now keeping a close eye on any potential countermeasures from Iran following the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities. Iran's foreign minister warned that his country reserved "all options" to defend its sovereignty. According to Iranian state media, the country's parliament has also approved closing the Strait of Hormuz, a pivotal waterway for global oil trade, with about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products traversing through it each day. "It all depends on how Iran responds," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. "If they accept the end of their military nuclear desires… then this could be the end of the conflict and markets will be fine," he told CNBC. Boockvar is not of the view that Iran will carry out the disruption of global oil supplies. The worst-case scenario for markets would occur if Iran were to close the Strait, which is unlikely, said Marko Papic, chief strategist at GeoMacro Strategy. "If they do, oil prices go north of $100, fear and panic take over, stocks go down ~10% minimum, and investors rush to safe havens," he said. However, markets are subdued now given the "limited tools" that Tehran has at its disposal to retaliate, Papic added. The idea of shutting down the Hormuz waterway has been a recurring rhetoric from Iran, but it has never been acted upon, with experts highlighting that it is improbable. In 2018, Iran warned it could block the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. pulled out of the nuclear deal and reinstated sanctions. Similar threats were made earlier in 2011 and 2012, when senior Iranian officials — including then-Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi — said the waterway could be closed if Western nations imposed more sanctions on Iran's oil exports due to its nuclear activities. "Tehran understands that, if they were to close the Strait, the retaliation from the U.S. would be swift, punitive, and brutal," Papic added. In a similar vein, Yardeni Research founder Ed Yardeni said the latest events have not shaken his conviction in the U.S. bull market."Geopolitically, we think that Trump has just reestablished America's military deterrence capabilities, thus increasing the credibility of his 'peace through strength' mantra," he said, adding that he is targeting 6,500 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025. While predicting geopolitical developments in the Middle East is a "treacherous exercise," Yardeni believes that the region is in for a "radical transformation" now that Iranian nuclear facilities have been destroyed.
CNBC
6 hours ago
- CNBC
Oil at $100 a barrel? U.S. role in Iran-Israel fight fuels market jitters
Oil markets are entering a new phase of uncertainty after the U.S. entered the war between Iran and Israel, with experts warning of triple-digit prices. Investors are closely watching for Iran's reaction following the U.S.' strikes on its nuclear facilities, with Iran's foreign minister warning his country reserved "all options" to defend its sovereignty. Oil futures were up nearly 3% as of early Asia hours. U.S. crude oil rose 2.93% to $76 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent was up 2.86% at $79.22 per barrel. "There is real risk of the market experiencing unprecedented supply disruptions over coming weeks, of a much more severe nature than the oil price shock in 2022 in wake of the Ukraine war," said MST Marquee's senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic. While the market reaction post U.S. strikes has been less aggressive, relative to just over a week ago when Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, industry watchers believe that the latest developments usher in a new era of volatility for the oil markets, especially as they await for potential Iranian countermeasures. Threats of blocking Strait of Hormuz, after Iran's parliament approved closing it as per state media, have added to market jitters. The strait, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is a critical artery for global oil trade with about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products passing through it per day. That makes up almost one-fifth of global oil shipments. If Iran does close the Strait of Hormuz, Western forces will likely "directly enter the fray" and try to reopen it, Kavonic told CNBC, adding that oil prices could approach $100 per barrel and retest the highs seen in 2022, if the closure goes beyond more than a few weeks. "Even a degree of harassment of passage through the Strait, short of a full closure, could still see a serious heightening of oil prices," said the senior energy analyst. Kavonic's view is echoed by other industry experts. The U.S. and allied military would eventually reopen the Strait, but if Iran employed all its military means, the conflict could "last longer than the last two Gulf Wars," said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group. And should Iran decide to attack Gulf energy production or flows, it has the capability to disrupt oil and LNG shipping, resulting in large oil and LNG price spikes. "A prolonged closure or destruction of key Gulf energy infrastructure could propel crude prices to above $100," he said. The CBOE crude oil volatility index, which measures the market's expectation of 30-day volatility in crude oil prices, is at March 2022 levels it hit shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine. While there has been some level of uncertainty with regards to how developments in the Middle East could play out for oil supplies, Lipow Associates' Andy Lipow noted that the current developments carry a different weight. "This time feels different, given the barrage of missiles that have been fired for over a week and now the direct involvement of the USA," he said, adding oil could hit $100 per barrel should exports through the Strait of Hormuz be affected. While an attempt to block the Hormuz waterway between Iran and Oman could have profound consequences for the wider economy, threats of blocking the strait have mostly been rhetorical, with experts saying that it is physically impossible to do so. "So the picture is a little bit mixed, and I think traders will err on the side of caution, not panicking unless there is more real evidence to do," said Vandana Hari, founder and CEO, Vanda Insights. Iran in 2018 threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened tensions after the U.S. exited the nuclear deal and reinstated sanctions. Similar threat were issued in 2011 and 2012, when senior Iranian officials — among them then–Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi — warned of a possible closure if Western nations imposed more sanctions on Iran's oil exports over its nuclear activities. Additionally, it is worth noting that Iranian energy infrastructure has not been a target thus far even with the recent conflagrations, said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. "It appears that both sides have an incentive to keep oil out of the line of fire, at least for now," she said.
