Tietoevry Banking outlines seismic shift in European digital commerce by 2035

Results from a new report commissioned by Tietoevry Banking and written by leading research and advisory firm Celent predict continued strong growth in digital commerce to 2035, with the value of digital transactions set to hit €1.090 trillion in five key European markets by the middle of the next decade.
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The report, 'A Future of European Payments' also highlights the rise of Account-to-Account (A2A) services and the development of smart AI agents that drive automated transactions as key areas of opportunity for banks and payment providers in the next 10 years.
The report investigates consumer e-commerce payments volumes in Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and the UK - five of the most significant digital commerce markets in Europe.
The model used for studying these markets considers three main areas:
• The battle between payment rails - while card payments will continue to grow, they will lose market share to A2A services, which are expected to grow from 24% of all transactions in 2025 to nearly 40% by 2035. Wallets will continue to play a key role, but innovations will make it more difficult to identify them as standalone payment methods. Digital assets will become prominent, especially if a digital Euro is introduced during this period, but they will remain a small segment of the market.
• Pay now/pay later options - the scope of options to pay instantly (debit and instant payment) or pay later (credit, Buy Now Pay Later, and others) will expand. The demand for pay later/credit products will remain robust and will provide banks and wallet providers with opportunities to develop new credit options for A2A and wallet products. The report expects credit on A2A transactions to grow to €35.7 billion (just over 7% of total pay later value) by 2035.
• AI agents - the biggest change, according to Celent analysts, will come in the way e-commerce is conducted, i.e. not in how consumers pay, but how they buy. The report predicts customers will deploy 'AI agents' to initiate transactions on their behalf. While still in its early stages, Celent expects the value of agent-initiated digital commerce to reach €191 billion across the five markets analyzed (17.5% of total e-commerce volume). The report suggests that the impact of agent-initiated commerce will be greatest in areas such as travel, food and drink, digital content, DIY/gardening, financial services, and entertainment.
'The opportunity for European banks over the next 10 years is enormous,' explains Natalija Dmitrijeva, Head of Instant, Retail Payments and Cards at Tietoevry Banking. 'This report - while not attempting to provide an accurate prediction for the future - does highlight clear areas for development and growth. To play a leadership role in an expanding and changing payment landscape, banks and fintechs must be clear on the way one wants to play in e-commerce, digital wallets, and the development of digital identity infrastructure.'
'Succeeding in this future landscape will mean more than outstanding technology solutions. It will also mean working with external partners on the gradual removal of siloed payment operations that are already acting as barriers to growth. At the same time, banks should be working with external partners to modernize their payment systems in preparation for an instant Account-to-Account future, as well as adopting a flexible strategy that allows them to maintain a profitable payment business and adapt to the huge changes that are coming.'

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