The Great Education Earthquake: Building On New Ground
Napier before the earthquake.
At 10:47 AM on February 3, 1931, the earth shook violently beneath Napier, New Zealand. Two and a half minutes later, most of the town lay in ruins, consumed first by earthquake and then by fire.
Earthquakes don't always create new land. But this one did. By the next morning, as the aftershocks abated and the sea receded, the Napier coastline had gained about 50 square miles of new land.
When I visited Napier earlier this year, I saw a thriving city and one of the world's finest examples of Art Deco architecture---a testament to what can rise from rubble when a community comes together to rebuild with vision instead of nostalgia.
American higher education is having a Napier moment. The ground beneath our universities has been shaken by an administration that views universities not as engines of progress but as bastions of liberal indoctrination to be dissed, defunded, and discredited. The chaotic rush to eliminate the Department of Education, slash federal research funding, terrorize immigrants and international students, cut Pell grants, and weaponize accreditation represents an existential threat to every college and university.
We're already seeing the first signs of academic brain drain, as American researchers depart for universities in Europe, Asia, and Canada, taking their expertise and graduate students with them. History offers sobering parallels: when authoritarian regimes attack intellectual freedom, scientific leadership migrates to more welcoming shores.
The temptation is to blame Trump and only Trump. But public trust in higher education has been declining for decades. This is no media myth but a tale of institutional failure to innovate. Just 36% of Americans now express confidence in universities, down from 57% two decades ago. Except in the most competitive colleges -- which reject almost everybody's children --- graduation rates have been stagnant. Of the students who complete their degrees, too many leave college with crushing debt and questionable job prospects. And now we are beginning to feel the pre-shocks of artificial intelligence on jobs, especially for new college graduates ---another powerful force that will reshape how we create, validate, and transmit knowledge.
"If only the federal government would leave us alone...." is an all too common refrain on college campuses. But that's precisely the wrong response. This isn't a temporary crisis to be managed, but one that calls for a fundamental restructuring of higher education. The old model of four years on campus, large lecture halls, and credentialing monopolies was already in decline. We can either cling to the wreckage or start building.
Finding Opportunity in Crisis
The earthquake in higher education isn't over. Political pressures will continue to intensify. Demographics will shift. AI will disrupt traditional instruction and the workforce.
However, the new land is fertile. The climate for innovation has never been better or more important. The question is whether we have the vision and courage to plant something worthy in the ground that has been created by the earthquake. Napier's citizens didn't rebuild their town exactly as it was---they created something beautiful and enduring that honored their past while preparing for their future.
We can do the same. But only if we stop cowering in the rubble.
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