Earnings Estimates Stabilize: A Closer Look
Note: The following is an excerpt from this week's Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
Total S&P 500 earnings for the June quarter are expected to be up +5.2% from the same period last year on +3.8% higher revenues, with a broader and greater pressure on estimates relative to other recent periods since the June-quarter got underway.
Q2 earnings estimates for 14 of the 16 Zacks sectors have come down since the quarter got underway, with Aerospace and Utilities as the only sectors whose estimates have moved higher.
Q2 earnings estimates for the Tech and Finance sectors, the two largest contributors to aggregate S&P 500 earnings, accounting for 51% of all index earnings, have also been cut since the quarter got underway. The quarter started with significant pressure on Tech sector estimates, but the negative revisions trend notably stabilized in the subsequent weeks.
Q2 earnings for the 'Magnificent 7' group of companies are expected to be up +11.8% from the same period last year on +11.2% higher revenues. Excluding the 'Mag 7' contribution, Q2 earnings for the rest of the index would be up +3.4% (vs. +5.2%).
The Q2 earnings season will really get going once JPMorgan and Wells Fargo kick-off the June-quarter reporting cycle for the Finance sector. But officially, the Q2 earnings season will have gotten underway much before that, as we and others count results from companies with fiscal quarters ending in May as part of the Q2 earnings season.
Using that definition of Q2, we have already seen such results from Costco (
COST
), AutoZone (
AZO
), and Oracle (
ORCL
), and will have seen almost two dozen such results by the time the big banks report their results.
Making Sense of Earnings Expectations for 2024 Q2 and Beyond
The start of Q2 coincided with heightened tariff uncertainty following the punitive April 2 nd tariff announcements. While the onset of the announced levies was eventually delayed for three months, the issue has understandably weighed heavily on estimates for the current and coming quarters, particularly in the first few weeks after the April 2 nd announcement.
The expectation at present is for Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 index to increase by +5.2% from the same period last year on +3.8% higher revenues. The chart below shows how Q2 earnings growth expectations have evolved since the start of the year.
While it is not unusual for estimates to be adjusted lower, the magnitude and breadth of Q2 estimate cuts are greater than we have seen in the comparable periods of other recent quarters.
Since the start of the quarter, estimates have come down for 14 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with the biggest declines for the Transportation, Autos, Energy, Construction, and Basic Materials sectors. The only sectors experiencing favorable revisions in this period are Aerospace and Utilities.
Estimates for the two largest earnings contributors to the index – Tech & Finance – have also declined since the quarter began.
Tech sector earnings are expected to be up +12% in Q2 on +10.5% higher revenues. While these earnings growth expectations are materially below where they stood at the start of April, the revisions trend appears to have notably stabilized lately, as we have been flagging in recent weeks. You can see this in the sector's revisions trend in the chart below.
This stabilizing turn in the Tech sector's revisions trend can be seen in expectations for full-year 2025 as well, as the chart below shows.
The two charts above show that estimates for the Tech sector have stabilized and are no longer under the type of downward pressure experienced earlier in the quarter. The Tech sector is much more than just any another sector, as it alone accounts for almost a third of all S&P 500 earnings.
The Earnings Big Picture
The chart below shows expectations for 2025 Q2 in terms of what was achieved in the preceding four periods and what is currently expected for the next three quarters.
The chart below shows the overall earnings picture for the S&P 500 index on an annual basis.
While estimates for this year have been under pressure lately, there haven't been a lot of changes to estimates for the next two years at this stage.
Stocks have recouped their tariff-centric losses, although the issue has only been deferred for now. While some of the more dire economic projections have eased lately, there is still plenty of macro uncertainty that will likely continue to weigh on earnings estimates in the days ahead, particularly as we gain visibility on the tariffs question.
Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"
Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.
This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.
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