Iran's Response Options: 8 Scenarios After U.S. Strike on Nuclear Facilities
Nada Mustafa
Following U.S. airstrikes that targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, the Middle East has entered a new and volatile phase. While Tehran has yet to issue a direct response, political and military analyses suggest several likely paths Iran may take in retaliation against Washington.
Based on reports from informed media sources, eight potential scenarios have emerged, ranging from military retaliation to political and security measures.
1. Striking U.S. Military Bases in the Gulf
The most probable scenario involves Iran launching direct attacks on U.S. bases in Qatar, Bahrain, or even Kuwait. These bases represent core symbols of America's military footprint in the region, making them high-priority targets in any potential Iranian retaliation.
2. Mobilizing Proxy Militias
Iran exerts significant influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon through loyal armed groups. Tehran may activate these militias to carry out attacks on U.S. interests or its allies, offering a method of retaliation without a direct confrontation.
3. Targeting Israel
As Washington's closest ally, Israel may be a direct target for Iran. This could include missile strikes or unconventional attacks. Such a move would escalate the conflict dramatically and potentially open multiple battlefronts across the region.
4. Operations in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran might attempt to disrupt maritime traffic in the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, through which over 20% of global oil supply passes. Targeting oil tankers or planting naval mines would represent a major economic pressure tactic on the West.
5. Cyberattacks
Iran has developed sophisticated cyber capabilities and may launch digital attacks against sensitive infrastructure within the United States, such as energy grids, communication networks, or financial systems. This option offers strategic impact without direct military engagement.
6. Limited and Calculated Escalation
Tehran might choose a symbolic and restrained military response to demonstrate resolve domestically while avoiding a large-scale American retaliation. This scenario seeks to balance the need for a response with the desire to prevent a broader war.
7. Activating Sleeper Cells Beyond the Region
Iran may resort to launching special operations outside the Middle East, in regions it considers strategically important to the United States, such as Europe or Latin America, via sleeper cells loyal to Tehran. This could globalize the conflict and complicate containment efforts.
8. Political Pressure Through Allies
Iran could leverage its political and religious influence in countries like Iraq and Lebanon to sway public opinion, destabilize U.S. interests, and push back diplomatically. This would involve using soft power tools to undermine U.S. positions through international forums.
Full-Scale Confrontation or Managed Containment?
The critical question remains: Will the confrontation between Washington and Tehran spiral into an all-out regional war, or will it remain contained through mutual deterrence? Current developments suggest the Middle East is on the brink of a highly sensitive period, with the course of events in the coming days set to determine the trajectory of the conflict.
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Ahram Online provides live coverage of the unfolding military confrontation between Israel and Iran as the two sides have waged deadly strikes against one another for the 11th day in a row. Related Adviser to Iran's Khamenei says US 'no longer' has place in Middle East - as it happened Here's how Iran could retaliate after US strikes on its nuclear program Iran's armed forces threatened on Monday to inflict "serious, unpredictable consequences" on the United States in retaliation for its strikes on nuclear sites. US warplanes unleashed bunker-buster bombs on Isfahan, Natanz, and the underground uranium enrichment facility at Fordo, in support of the bombardment campaign that ally Israel began on 13 June. "This hostile act... will widen the scope of legitimate targets of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran and pave the way for the extension of war in the region," said armed forces spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari on state television. 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Israeli Air Force fighter jets have dropped over 100 munitions on targets in Tehran in the past two hours, according to the army. 13:30 Iran's judiciary said Israeli strikes hit Tehran's Evin prison, leaving sections of the facility damaged. "In the latest attack by the Zionist regime on Tehran, projectiles unfortunately struck Evin prison, causing damage to parts of the facility," said the judiciary's Mizan Online website. It added that all resources had been deployed to manage the complex and the situation remained "under control". Israel's defence minister later confirmed the army was targeting Tehran's Evin prison as it carried out fresh strikes on the Iranian capital. The military "is carrying out strikes of unprecedented force against regime targets and agencies of government repression in the heart of Tehran. Among the targets... (is) Evin Prison (which holds political prisoners and dissidents)... and additional regime-related targets," Israel Katz said in a post on X. 13:00 Israeli strikes hit a power supply system in the Iranian capital, triggering outages in some areas around the city, Iranian media reported. The power distribution line in northern Tehran "was damaged, causing outages in some areas," Fars news agency reported. 12:30 Russian President Vladimir Putin slammed strikes on Tehran as "unprovoked aggression" and said Moscow was trying to help the Iranian people as he hosted Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Moscow. "This is an absolutely unprovoked aggression against Iran," Putin told Araghchi, calling the strikes "unjustified" and adding that Russia was "making efforts to provide assistance to the Iranian people." 12:15 Israel carried out a fresh strike on Iran's underground Fordo nuclear site south of Tehran, a media outlet in the country reported. 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'I indicated that any transfer of nuclear material from a safeguarded facility to another location in Iran must be declared to the Agency as required under Iran's Safeguard Agreement, and I expressed my readiness to work with Iran on this matter,' he added. 11:40 France's foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, has warned against any attempts to force regime change in Iran. He noted his country's concern about an escalation of the Middle East conflict that could be 'devastating' for the region and have serious consequences for global stability. Arriving at a meeting of EU foreign ministers, Barrot called on Iran not to take action to aggravate the situation, adding that Iran's nuclear programme was 'an existential risk' for Israel, the wider region, and Europe. Meanwhile, Germany's foreign minister said Iran needs to engage in direct talks with the United States, though the European Union remains ready to participate in negotiations. 'Iran says it only wants to negotiate with Europe, and we see that as a good sign but we do also say that's not sufficient. We want to see the United States being involved,' German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said, speaking to journalists in Brussels ahead of the EU foreign ministers' meeting. 11:30 Ali Shamkhani, senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, confirmed that the country still retains its stockpile of enriched uranium despite U.S. strikes on three nuclear sites. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Shamkhani wrote, 'Even if the nuclear facilities are destroyed, the game is not over. The enriched materials, domestic expertise, and political will remain.' He added, 'The political and operational initiative now belongs to the side that plays smart and avoids blind strikes. The surprises are not over.' 11:25 Iran's Red Crescent said an Israeli strike hit near its building in northern Tehran. "New attack around the Red Crescent... building," the emergency service said in a post on its Telegram channel, accompanied by a video of smoke rising from the site of the attack. An AFP journalist had earlier reported hearing loud explosions north of the Iranian capital. The Israeli military later announced it had begun a series of strikes on military targets in Tehran, without elaborating. 11:15 An Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be dangerous and 'not good for anybody', the European Union's top diplomat said. 'The concerns of retaliation and this war escalating are huge, especially closing of the strait of Hormuz by Iran is something that would be extremely dangerous and not good for anybody,' Kaja Kallas told reporters ahead of a meeting with EU foreign ministers. Iran's Press TV reported on Sunday that Iran's Supreme National Security Council needed to make a final decision on whether to close the strait, after parliament was reported to back the measure, Reuters reported. About 20% of global oil and gas demand flows through the channel. 11:00 The Israeli military said it has attacked six airports in Iran, destroying 15 aircraft and damaging runways. The military posted on social media that the airports targeted were in western, eastern, and central Iran. It added that the drone strikes destroyed F-15 and F-5 fighter jets, a refuelling plane, and an AH-1 Cobra attack helicopter. It also said runways and underground bunkers were damaged. It's not clear when these attacks happened. Iran has not yet confirmed the attack. 10:52 Loud explosions were heard in Jerusalem after the Israeli military warned that a fresh barrage of missiles had been launched from Iran. 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It exports just under half of that amount and consumes the rest. When trading opened on Monday, Brent and the main US crude contract, WTI, jumped more than four percent to their highest prices since January. - Key figures at around 0700 GMT - Brent North Sea Crude: UP 1.1 percent at $78.08 per barrel West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.1 percent at $74.89 per barrel 10:20 North Korea condemned US strikes on Iran, calling it a violation of the United Nations charter and blaming the tension in the Middle East on the "reckless valor of Israel". "The Democratic People's Republic of Korea strongly denounces the attack on Iran by the US which severely violated the UN Charter with respect for sovereignty," said a spokesperson of the North's foreign ministry, according to a statement carried by the state news agency. The ongoing regional tension was an "inevitable product brought by the reckless valor of Israel", the unnamed spokesperson added, claiming the Jewish state "has promoted its unilateral interests through ceaseless war moves and territorial expansion". 10:00 A series of high-level international meetings is being held this week to address the military escalation between Israel and Iran following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to BBC News. The UN Security Council is due to meet again after its Sunday session to discuss U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, as Russia, China, and Pakistan proposed that the 15-member body adopt a resolution calling for an "immediate ceasefire" in Iran. A NATO summit is opening in the Netherlands, and the situation in the Middle East is almost certain to be discussed. The board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog, is holding an emergency meeting. EU foreign ministers are also meeting in Belgium. 09:45 Sirens sounded across Israel and Iran as both countries exchanged their latest round of fires. People gather in an underground shelter in Tel Aviv on 23 June 2025. AFP The Israeli army said it was intercepting missiles from Iran, while Iranian state media Fars said the air defence system was working to counter a drone attack. Israel's military said it struck surface-to-surface missile launch sites in western Iran. The military said in a statement that more than 15 fighter jets had struck the Kermanshah area in western Iran, "neutralising a number of surface-to-surface missile launch and storage sites aimed toward Israeli territory". In an earlier statement, it said the air force was "currently striking military infrastructure sites in Kermanshah in Iran". 09:40 Iran's judiciary said it executed a man found guilty of spying for Israel. "Mohammad-Amin Mahdavi Shayesteh was hanged this morning for intelligence cooperation with the Zionist regime," the judiciary said, using Iran's term for Israel. Shayesteh was alleged to have had ties with Mossad, Israel's foreign intelligence agency. He was also convicted of collaborating with Iran International, a Persian-language TV channel based in London that is critical of the Iranian government. Iran frequently announces the arrest or execution of individuals it accuses of working with foreign intelligence agencies, particularly its arch-foe, Israel. On Sunday, authorities pledged to speed up such cases. The same day, the judiciary announced the execution of Majid Mosayebi, who was also convicted of being an agent for Mossad. 09:35 Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was due to hold "important" talks with key ally Vladimir Putin on Monday, 48 hours after a major US attack on Iran's key nuclear facilities. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, adjusts his headphones during a press conference at the Lutfi Kirdar Congress Center on the sidelines of the 51st session of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), in Istanbul on 22 June 2025. AFP "In this new dangerous situation ... our consultations with Russia can certainly be of great importance," Araghchi said after landing in Moscow, according to Russian state media. The official IRNA news agency reported Sunday that Araghchi would "hold consultations with the president and other senior officials of Russia regarding regional and international developments following the military aggression by the United States and the Zionist regime against Iran." Putin initially pitched himself as a possible mediator between Iran and Israel, but on Friday said he was only "suggesting ideas", after US President Donald Trump pushed back against a role for the Kremlin leader. Russia's foreign ministry on Saturday condemned the US strikes as "irresponsible," after having previously warned against military intervention. 09:15 Iran warned the United States of severe repercussions following US strikes on the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities, as the Iran-Israel war entered its 11th day. "This hostile act... will widen the scope of legitimate targets of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran and pave the way for the extension of war in the region," said armed forces spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari. "The fighters of Islam will inflict serious, unpredictable consequences on you with powerful and targeted (military) operations," he said on state television. 08:15 The US State Department issued a "worldwide caution" for Americans, saying the conflict in the Middle East could put those traveling or living abroad at an increased security risk. "There is the potential for demonstrations against US citizens and interests abroad," and "the Department of State advises US citizens worldwide to exercise increased caution," said the State Department's security alert. 08:05 US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to help deter Iran from shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial trade route, following American strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. AFP "I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that because they heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil," Rubio said on Fox News. China has joined Russia and a chorus of Arab states in condemning the US attacks, saying that they "escalate tensions in the Middle East." Analysts have said Iran may opt to retaliate against Washington's early Sunday attack by shutting the Strait, a waterway through which one-fifth of global oil output passes. "If they do that, it will be another terrible mistake. It's economic suicide for them if they do it, and we retain options to deal with that," Rubio added. "But other countries should be looking at that as well, it would hurt other countries' economies a lot worse than ours. It would be, I think, a massive escalation that would merit a response. Not just by us but from others," he said. Meanwhile, Iran has threatened bases used by the US military, with an advisor to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying they will be considered a "legitimate target for our armed forces." 08:00 US President Donald Trump hinted at interest in regime change in Iran, despite several of his administration officials earlier stressing that US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites did not have that goal. "It's not politically correct to use the term, 'Regime Change,' but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!" Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. Trump also insisted that US strikes had destroyed Iranian nuclear sites, after other officials cautioned that the extent of damage was still unclear. "Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term!" Trump wrote on social media, without sharing the images he was referencing. "The biggest damage took place far below ground level. Bullseye!!!" he added. Follow us on: Facebook Instagram Whatsapp Short link:
