Trump's strike on Iran supercharges Netanyahu's comeback
Alternatively, if the Iranian response is limited, the Israeli government may wind down the war, satisfied that it has achieved most of what it hoped for, and conscious that a longer conflict risks straining Israel's air-defence system.
'The ball is in the Iranian yard,' said Major General Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence.
'If Iran keeps on firing missiles, Israel will continue its own strikes and pursue more achievements, targeting Iran's missile launchers and missile factories, its oil industry and its civilian leadership.'
Regardless of what happens next in Iran, Netanyahu's success has already changed the political landscape in Israel.
After Israel began striking Iran more than a week ago, broadcasters published opinion polling that suggested his coalition had greater support than at almost any point since the start of Israel's war with Hamas in late 2023.
On Sunday morning, Jerusalem time, his biggest domestic critics even applauded the success of his campaign, including his achievement in persuading US President Donald Trump to join the battle and destroy targets that Israeli warplanes could not reach.
'I don't have a problem with him enjoying this moment,' Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition, said of Netanyahu in a radio interview.
'This is a success for Netanyahu, a success for Trump, and a success for the free world. This is what needed to happen.'
Buoyed by the blow against Iran, Netanyahu could show greater flexibility in the negotiations to reach a new truce and hostage release deal in the Gaza Strip, analysts said.
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For most of the war, he has avoided reaching a deal in Gaza that would allow Hamas' remnant leadership to retain significant influence in the territory.
Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners repeatedly threatened to quit the government if the Gaza war ended without Hamas' total defeat.
And with Netanyahu's party languishing in the polls, he appeared unwilling to make concessions in the talks that risked the collapse of his political alliance, most recently during renewed negotiations in May.
Now, Netanyahu has options. Having exacted a price from Iran, Hamas' biggest benefactor, Netanyahu may be able to persuade his coalition to compromise in the talks with Hamas itself, according to his former adviser, Nadav Shtrauchler.
'Soon he hopefully will be able to say: 'We changed the Middle East. Now we need to be more flexible on other fronts – in Gaza and regarding the hostages',' Shtrauchler said.
'It will not happen tomorrow, but a window of opportunity has been opened.'
If he does agree to a ceasefire in Gaza, that in turn would raise the chances of Netanyahu's achieving another long-held ambition: the normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the Arab world's most powerful country.
In talks last year with US diplomats, officials said, Saudi Arabia signalled its openness to such a landmark deal – if the war ends in Gaza and if Netanyahu agrees to Palestinian sovereignty.
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The former is still a long shot, and the latter is even less likely, given Netanyahu's resistance to a Palestinian state.
But since he may be less beholden to his far-right allies, the prime minister could have more room to manoeuvre.
'It's now easier for him to make big diplomatic moves like a Saudi deal,' Shtrauchler said.
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Sydney Morning Herald
11 minutes ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
War in the Middle East is dangerous; Albanese missed his opportunity
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's belated abandonment of Australia's neutral stance on the US joining Israel's attack on Iran is a continuation of the defensive and slow-footed reaction that has marked his record over the 18 months since the Middle East reignited. With US President Donald Trump posturing for days on taking military action against Tehran, Albanese had adequate preparation time. Yet, when the attacks came, the prime minister stayed silent on support. Instead, his office issued a statement by an anonymous government spokesperson calling for de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy. Such lame silence opened the door for the opposition's canny acting foreign affairs spokesperson, Andrew Hastie, to seize the initiative and back the US strikes and scramble the government onto Monday morning television programs, Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Social Services Minister Tanya Plibersek eventually confirming that the government did indeed support Trump's strikes. Albanese then emerged on Monday to declare that, while the attacks were unilateral action by the US, 'Iran cannot be allowed to get a nuclear weapon, and we support action to prevent that'. He should have said it loud and clear on Sunday. That is not to say the prime minister was letting down our ally by not automatically endorsing American action. The US has been so erratic of late that we do not owe it that, not least because so many unanswered questions flow from the weekend. The legality of the US action is wide open to interpretation and Trump's declaration that Iran's nuclear program had been 'completely and totally obliterated' sits awkwardly beside assertions a day later by senior US officials they did not know the fate of Tehran's stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium. Further, the UN's nuclear watchdog confirmed all three Iranian facilities had been badly damaged, but said it was not yet in a position to assess the impact underground and Iran has told the International Atomic Energy Agency there has been no increase in off-site radiation levels at the three sites. Trump's withdrawal in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal reached by seven countries after two years of gruelling negotiation may have helped push Tehran down its current obstinate path. But in the 10 days of war with Israel this month, Iran has received little but verbal support from allies and is perhaps now the most isolated it has been since the 1979 US embassy hostage crisis.
The Age
15 minutes ago
- The Age
White House emphasised strikes were not about regime change. Then Trump logged on to social media
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7NEWS
16 minutes ago
- 7NEWS
Expert's advice to Aussie motorists concerned about fuel prices surging
Australian motorists worried about tensions in the Middle East affecting prices at the pump have been sent a clear message: 'Fill up now.' US President Donald Trump 's administration carried out an attack on three nuclear sites in Iran on Saturday. It comes after Israel launched attacks on Iran earlier this month. Oil prices are expected to rise as a result of the escalation in conflict, however experts have spoken out to ease fears of immediate surges. 'It's really important for Australians today to understand that what we have seen again over the weekend, while it is another escalation above and beyond the escalation we saw the weekend before it, this is the Middle East,' NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury said. 'Unfortunately, flare-ups are all too often and all too common.' The regional benchmark for oil in Australia, Tapis, is expected to increase in price by tonight, Khoury said. 'We don't know by how much,' he said. Based on what we're seeing out of the US, it could be $3 or $4 a barrel.' Why could petrol prices rise? A possible way for Iran to retaliate against the US and Israel is to close off the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is a vital trade route used to transport 20 per cent of the world's crude oil, or about 20 million barrels per day. The Iranian parliament has backed closing the strait in response to the US attacks, though this must be approved by Iran's national security council. Oil prices could shoot above $100 per barrel if the strait is closed for a prolonged period, according to Goldman Sachs and consulting firm Rapidan Energy. JPMorgan analysts view the risk of Iran closing Hormuz as low because the US would view such a move as a declaration of war. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday called on China to help prevent Iran from closing the strait. Rubio said it would be 'economic suicide' for Iran to close the strait because the Islamic Republic's oil exports also pass through the waterway. Currently, it remains open. Khoury said this is 'the most important thing'. 'We do not want Australians panicking,' he said. 'Yes, there is speculation about what could happen in the next days and weeks, but it is the Middle East and anything can happen. 'The other important thing for Australians to know tonight is that if you live in Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Adelaide or Perth, fill up now.' A combination of prices being at or near the bottom of the cycle and turmoil in the Middle East mean now is the time to buy. 'Prices are either in the high $1.60s or in the low $1.70s,' Khoury said. 'That has everything to do with the domestic price cycles in those capital cities. 'The wholesale price in Australia has gone up about eight cents a litre since two Fridays ago when the escalation really flared up between Israel and Iran. 'It will go up again, is the expectation, based on the US decision to attack Iran over the weekend. 'But it's only gone up eight cents a litre in the last week and a bit. 'There's a lot of speculation about what could happen. It's really important that Australians focus on what is happening. 'And what is happening if you live in those bigger cities is that prices are pretty good.' Khoury advised motorists to check fuel prices near them and find the best deal. 'You can find some real bargains,' he said. 'On any given day, there can be huge gaps in the price of the cheapest service station and the price of the most expensive. 'In Sydney today, it's 70 cents a litre. 'Regardless of what's going on in the Middle East or anywhere else, and regardless of where we are in the price cycle, do your research, use the information that you have access to that motorists in other countries don't have. 'We fought hard to get that made public. It's there for you to use.' When asked when the conflict overseas will affect local prices, Khoury said it normally takes about seven to 10 days. Our service stations are yet to buy the more expensive barrels but when that happens, it will have a flow on effect. 'The NRMA will be monitoring those prices really carefully over the next days and weeks, because what we won't tolerate, obviously, is oil companies manipulating what's going on overseas to put their prices up any higher than they should go,' he said. Could we see a global oil crisis? Khoury also emphasised that even if the strait is closed, it would not create a similar crisis to those caused by other recent global conflicts. 'In 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia being the second-largest producer of oil,' he said. 'That created an initial shock.' 'Obviously, the world was going to enforce sanctions, and they did. That created an even bigger shock. 'At the same time that that happened, the COVID supply crisis that affected the whole world hit its peak. So we all came out of COVID lockdown at the same time. 'The whole world came out of lockdown at the same time. Demand for oil spiked. Supply could not keep up. So we had probably the worst supply issue or challenge in our lifetime. 'And then Russia invaded Ukraine. 'All of those things had to happen at the same time for Tapis, our regional oil price, to hit $133 a barrel. 'It's currently at $76 a barrel. 'So to get back to those record high prices that we saw back in 2022, you would need a catastrophe at that level to affect global supply. 'We're not there yet, clearly, based on oil prices and the wholesale price. 'And I think that's what we want Australians to focus on tonight.'
