Back in the crossfire: Iraq's Tehran-backed militias prepare to support Iran if US intervenes
An air of uncertainty surrounds US President Donald Trump and potential American involvement in Israel's war against Iran.
While Tehran has long been an adversary of Washington and a source of international concern over its nuclear ambitions, Middle East governments and the broader international community have warned the Americans that joining and fuelling the conflict could have catastrophic consequences.
As Mr Trump considers whether or not to directly involve US forces, one of Iran's largest support networks remains deeply embedded in Iraq. Powerful militant groups, tied to Tehran through years of military and strategic co-operation, are watching developments closely and escalating their threats of military action to back their ally.
It is a big risk and Iraq would pay a heavy price, which it cannot afford. It just started rebuilding its security and stabilising the country
Iraqi government source
Sources close to the Iraqi government said some of the most prominent militant groups have confirmed this week that US military intervention to support Israel would trigger a retaliatory response.
'They told the government that they would go in and that they disagree with the decision to stand by,' one source said.
That is a reference to Baghdad's decision, at the start of this war, not to be part of it. The government does not want to turn Iraq into another battlefield for a regional conflict.
One source said that the Iraqi government has 'warned the militias against any involvement,' fearing that it would result in further escalation.
'It is a big risk and Iraq would pay a heavy price, which it cannot afford,' the source added. 'It has just started rebuilding its security and is stabilising as a country.'
Iraqi militant factions operate on their own terms, but military action to support Iran would not be straightforward and could result in severe consequences, the government sources added.
'The US know where those factions are based and can easily eliminate them if they chose to,' one source said. 'They can target them one by one.'
Hassan Janabi, a former Iraqi ambassador and minister, told The National: 'It is clear that armed factions will see US involvement as an opportunity to carry out attacks on US sites, including the embassy in Baghdad.'
Although direct American involvement would not be a surprise, it would 'increase the anger of the Iraqi public, which is hostile to Israel and America, as well as the Iran-aligned armed factions that are ideologically and strategically tied to Tehran,' Mr Janabi added.
He added that the Iraqi government led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani is attempting to portray 'solidarity with Iran by condemning the Israeli aggression, because it is ultimately unable to confront the military escalation taking place'.
The threat of a full regional war is more serious now than at any point in the past two years. If Mr Trump sends warplanes to support Israel, Iraqi militias are unlikely to be passive.
While the threat isn't entirely new and the scale and potential impact of this type of involvement is uncertain, these Iraqi factions, known as Fasael, have undoubtedly been adopting a more serious tone as the conflict intensifies and enters a second week.
Powerful Shiite leader Moqtada Al Sadr said on Friday that any decision to attack at any time and against any country "is entrusted to the decision issued by the American president present at any given time.
'This means that the unjust decision will, by divine wisdom and divine power, bring calamity and loss upon the man who issued this decision,' he said. 'It will bring calamity and loss upon him, as has already happened.'
On Thursday, the Iran-backed Shiite militia Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq vowed to attack US military bases across the Middle East if the US enters the war.
'We affirm, with greater clarity, that if the United States enters this war, the 'crazy' Trump will lose all the trillions he dreams of seizing from this region,' militia leader Abu Ali Al Askari said in a statement. He added that operational plans had already been drawn up.
The escalating threats come after White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Mr Trump will make a decision 'within the next two weeks' and would depend on the outcome of more talks with Iran.
'In light of the substantial chance that negotiations with Iran may or may not take place in the near future, the President will make his decision within the next two weeks.'
Just 24 hours earlier, Mr Trump said he had not yet made up his mind, continuing to project an air of strategic ambiguity and avoiding firm public commitments. 'I may do it,' he told reporters. 'I may not do it.'
For now, all the indications suggest that Washington is 'reluctant to get directly involved,' one source told The National. 'Trump has repeatedly stated his desire to de-escalate conflicts in the region and end foreign entanglements.'
'Survival mode'
Baghdad's view may not align with other capitals in the region, where concern is mounting over a potential US strike on Iran and subsequent retaliation that would make American bases a target.
Another Tehran-backed armed faction in Iraq, the True Promise Corps, has also threatened to join the war, intensifying fears that the conflict could spread rapidly across the region. The group, part of a shadowy coalition known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, issued a warning Monday that it would strike Israeli targets and its regional allies.
'We declare that all the sites and camps of the entity [Israel] and anyone who supports it in the region are targets for us,' said the group's leader, Mohammed Al Tamimi, in a statement posted on X.
Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at London's Chatham House, believes Iraq's armed factions are in 'survival mode'.
'The situation has gone beyond their control,' he said. 'They don't know where it's going or where it will end, and it's about surviving effectively.'
Baghdad does not want to create instability following years of calm. However, 'what's happening now is risking the equilibrium that Iraq has enjoyed,' Mr Mansour added.
'So for this reason, armed groups – certainly senior PMF groups – have tried to rhetorically signal their support for Iran and condemn Israel.'
Meanwhile, Iran has also warned of unleashing 'hell' in the region if the US intervenes militarily. So far, Baghdad believes Washington has little appetite for a direct war.
Iraq's powerful militias played an active role early in the Israel-Gaza war, launching attacks on US bases and claiming that they fired rockets towards Tel Aviv. But that momentum shifted following a quiet, unannounced truce that led Iran-backed factions to halt attacks on US forces. The truce, involving Washington, Baghdad and Tehran, was reached in February 2024.
It remains to be seen whether or not the US will stand by and watch Iranian missiles continue to strike Tel Aviv. Standing by runs counter to the US government's recent rhetoric about 'hitting hard' and its repeated warnings over Iran's nuclear threat, especially following five failed nuclear talks.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Middle East Eye
26 minutes ago
- Middle East Eye
On World Refugee Day, scores of families approved for resettlement in US are stuck in limbo
Friday, 20 June, marks International Refugee Day, but celebrations across the US have been muted since the Trump administration's 20 January refugee ban remains firmly in place. Since the ban was implemented, around 12,000 refugees who had security screenings and were booked for travel to the US had their flights cancelled. Another approximately 108,000 remaining refugees who had been 'conditionally approved' to come to the US remain stranded in precarious situations overseas. Only a very small number of refugees are currently being resettled and allowed to access support services under exceptions to the refugee ban. The Biden administration had announced a target of 125,000 refugees for fiscal year 2025, and according to the United Nations, there were 42.7 million refugees worldwide at the end of 2024. Refugees currently being settled in the US include dozens of white South Africans and approximately 160 refugees protected by an injunction under a lawsuit known as Pacito vs Trump. While multiple lawsuits against the ban have been, and are being filed in courts, the Pacito vs Trump case, filed by International Refugee Assistance Project (IRAP) in February, is one of the most significant and high-profile challenges to the refugee ban. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters The class action lawsuit filed by IRAP represents a group of nine individuals affected by the ban and several refugee resettlement agencies seeking to have the executive order and suspension of refugee-related funding declared illegal and their implementation halted. It also looks to restore vital funding to the United States Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP). On 5 May, the Western District Court of Washington issued a compliance order to the government to process and provide resettlement support to refugees who were conditionally approved and had travel scheduled before 20 January 2025. This order covers 160 individuals who had imminent travel plans as of 20 January and will retain protection under the ruling. On 15 May, the district court also affirmed that the government must immediately resume the processing of around 11,840 vulnerable refugees who were conditionally approved for resettlement with confirmed travel plans before the executive order. Laurie Ball Cooper, vice president for US legal programmes at IRAP, affirmed that some more people may be eligible to resume their plans to come to the US. 'In addition, among the remaining - approximately 12,000 people minus the 160 - there are surely people who can meet the standard set by the Ninth Circuit of showing that they have a strong reliance interest in the travel and therefore are still protected by the injunction,' she said. 'The district court has indicated that they will set up a process using a special neutral individual [special master] to adjudicate disputes around who meets that standard and who does not. But that process hasn't started yet,' Ball Cooper said. 'Bittersweet' From the approximate 108,000 refugees who were 'conditionally approved', Ball Cooper remains optimistic that the current litigation would also be able to find them some relief. 'Our underlying litigation continues to challenge the executive order as it applies to all refugees, and so over the long term, I hope that we will prevail on those arguments and see people able to proceed to safety.' USRAP was created in 1980 by the Refugee Act of 1980 to provide a safe and legal pathway for people fleeing persecution, war, or conflict to come to the United States to either join with family or to meet foreign and humanitarian policy priorities of the US government. Despite political rhetoric that often scapegoats refugees as a burden, refugees are a fiscal success for the United States. Based on a study commissioned by the Trump administration during his first term, refugees were shown to contribute $63 billion more in federal, state, and local taxes than they had taken in services and assistance between 2005 and 2014. US grants dozens of white South Africans refugee status Read More » 'Every refugee who enters is someone who is able to pursue the life that they are meant to be able to pursue here: in many cases, to reunite with family members, to join communities that are ready to welcome them. So every single arrival is something worth celebrating, and more should be coming!' Ball Cooper added. Despite the statistical net positive that refugees bring to the US, celebrations on World Refugee Day have been bittersweet. 'I would describe observances of International Refugee Day today as mixed,' Ball Cooper said. She said that everyone in refugee communities or refugee-serving communities was continuing to take time today to celebrate the many ways refugees 'enrich our communities in the US, and the great joy it is for those of us who get to know, work with and live with refugees'. 'At the same time, it is certainly bittersweet, because there are so many tens of thousands of refugees who should be here already, and they're not because of the refugee ban,' she said. 'This is deeply sad, extremely frustrating, heartbreaking and life-threatening for many of the refugees themselves.'
The National
an hour ago
- The National
Israel and Hamas on UN blacklist for violence against children for second year running
Israel and Hamas are back on a UN "list of shame" for grave abuses against children in conflict zones for the second year running. An annual report for 2024, issued by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and released on Friday, identified nearly 20 conflict zones worldwide where the rights of children under 18 have been violated. The report includes a list that names groups and armed forces responsible for abuses such as killing and maiming children, recruiting minors for violence, kidnappings, denying humanitarian aid and sexual violence. The report for 2024 said more than 8,500 incidents had been verified in Israel and Palestine - the highest globally - with 2,917 Palestinian and 15 Israeli children killed or maimed. The October-December 2023 period saw a sharp spike, with 1,637 Palestinian children killed and 1,147 injured, compared to two Israeli child deaths. 'These figures represent real children whose lives have been violently torn from them, whose schools have been bombed, and who have been left without access to life-saving humanitarian aid,' said Bethany Ellis, director of Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict. The report also called out Israel's military operations in Lebanon, where more than 500 children were killed or injured last year. Violence against children in war zones around the world surged to 'unprecedented levels' last year, with the highest number of grave abuses recorded in nearly three decades. The report documented a 25 per cent surge in severe abuses against children compared to 2023, continuing a worsening trend. 'In 2024, violence against children in armed conflict reached unprecedented levels, with a staggering 25 per cent surge in the number of grave violations,' the report said. A total of 41,370 violations were verified – 36,221 committed in 2024 and 5,149 from prior years but newly confirmed – the highest since the UN began systematic monitoring. The figure surpasses 2023's record, which itself saw a 21 per cent rise from 2022. More than 4,500 children were killed and 7,000 injured, with minors enduring 'the brunt of relentless hostilities and indiscriminate attacks', the report said. It also noted a sharp increase in children suffering several acts of abuse, with 22,495 such cases recorded. 'The cries of 22,495 innocent children who should be learning to read or play ball but instead have been forced to learn how to survive gunfire and bombings, should keep all of us awake at night,' said Virginia Gamba, special representative of the UN Secretary General for children and armed conflict. 'This must serve as a wake-up call. We are at the point of no return."
Middle East Eye
an hour ago
- Middle East Eye
Judge orders immediate release of Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil
A US federal judge has ordered the release of Mahmoud Khalil from immigration custody as his legal fight continues to play out. The Trump administration's deportation case against the Palestinian activist and US green card holder is not over yet, but now that he will be out on bail, Khalil will be able to hold his newborn son for the very first time. The decision is a landmark victory for rights organisations that said Khalil's constitutionally protected freedom of speech was not just trampled upon, but he was "punished". Judge Michael Farbiarz said on Friday that the Trump administration was unable to make its case that Khalil would be a danger to the public or a flight risk if released from an immigration detention facility in Jena, Louisiana, where he was secretly transferred after his arrest. Farbiarz, a New Jersey district court judge who is overseeing Khalil's case, last week ruled it was unconstitutional to detain and deport Khalil, a lawful permanent resident, for supporting Palestinian human rights, and that he should be released from detention. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters The court gave the government until Friday morning to appeal. The government then told the court on Friday that it would continue to detain Khalil in Louisiana, saying that Khalil had omitted information on his green card application. "There is at least something to the underlying claim that there is an effort to use the immigration charge here to punish the petitioner (Khalil)," Farbiarz said, adding that punishing someone over a civil immigration matter is unconstitutional. While Farbiarz acknowledged that the government virtually never detains anyone on 'misrepresentation' charges, he said he would uphold their appeal, and did not grant Khalil's release. The government will continue to try to deport Khalil as the case continues. Who is Mahmoud Khalil? When the student protests began at Columbia University following the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel and the subsequent war on Gaza, Khalil functioned as an intermediary between students and university administrators over the student movement's demands for university divestment from weapons companies profiting from Israel's war on Gaza. Khalil did not participate in the encampments himself, opting instead to negotiate with administrators and offer guidance to the students. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents detained Khalil on 8 March. His wife, Nour Abdalla, was eight months pregnant. He became the first of a string of international student arrests outside their homes, often by plainclothes masked agents who would not tell them why they were being taken away, or to what location. The one thing they all had in common, despite not knowing one another, is that they opposed the war in Gaza in a public forum or had significant ties to someone who did. Khalil has been held at an ICE prison facility in Jena, Louisiana, since early March. His lawyers believe the Trump administration finds immigration judges in the south to be more favourable to the US government. In April, one of those judges said that Khalil could be deported even though he was a permanent US resident through his wife, an American citizen. According to the Associated Press, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had insisted that Khalil's "presence or activities would compromise a compelling US foreign policy interest'. Marc Van der Hout, one of Khalil's lawyers, said in a statement issued after that ruling that Khalil had been 'subject to a charade of due process', adding his deportation order was 'a flagrant violation of his right to a fair hearing, and a weaponisation of immigration law to suppress dissent'. Van der Hout then turned to Farbiarz to put a stop to that order. The immigration court's refusal to allow Khalil to attend the birth of his son was a double blow to his family.
