Higher Implied Volatility points to wider price swings

The support level fell by 1,200 points to 22,800PE, while the resistance level remained at 26,000CE for a second consecutive week. The 26,000CE has highest Call OI followed by 25,000/ 25,500/ 25,700/ 25,200/ 25,300/ 25,100/ 25,900 strikes, while 25,000/ 24,800/ 25,700/ 25,800 strikes recorded reasonable to heavy build-up of Call OI. Few OTM strikes in the 25,950-26,150 range witnessed moderate Call OI fall. Implied Volatility (IV) of 22,800PE, which holds the highest Put OI base, rose to 29.72, while the IV was marginally up at 26,000CE, which has a maximum Call OI base.
Coming to the Put side, maximum Put OI is seen at 22,800PE followed by 23,500/ 24,000/ 23,000/ 22,850/ 23,800/ 24,300/ 24,100/ 24,400/ 24,500/ 24,600 strikes. Further, 22,800/ 23,000/ 23,500/ 23,800/ 24,000/ 24,500/ 24,600 strikes posted moderate to reasonable addition of Put OI. ITM strikes in the 24,800-25,700 range suffered minute Put OI decline. Dhirender Singh Bisht, associate vice-president (technical research-equity) at SMC Global Securities Ltd, said: 'From the derivatives front, marginal Open Interest addition was seen by option writers in absence of any clear direction. Maximum Open Interest in Calls was seen at 25,000 strike, while marginal Put writing was observed at 24,600 & 24,500 strikes.'
'Indian markets ended lower in the week gone by on the back of weak global cues. The knee jerk reaction was seen largely due to sharp rise in crude oil prices as geopolitical tensions rose in the Middle East. However, a moderation in CPI inflation helped limit the downside,' observed Bisht.
For the week ended June 13, 2025, BSE Sensex closed at 81,118.60 points, a net fall of 1,070.39 points or 1.30 per cent, from the previous week's (June 6) closing of 82,188.99 points. NSE Nifty too moved down by 284.45 points or 1.13 per cent to 24,718.60 points from 25,003.05 points a week ago.
Bisht forecasts: 'On the technical front, Nifty slipped below its short-term moving average (20DEMA) once again, but witnessed a swift rebound after testing the lower end of the recent consolidation range (24,500–25,200). This suggests a possibility of continued consolidation in the index. For the upcoming week, Nifty is likely to remain in range once again and witness a phase of consolidation within a broader range of 24500-25500. However a decisive breakout on any side beyond defined range could further fuel momentum into the index.'
India VIX rose 7.60 per cent to 15.08 level. 'Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty's Call options settled at 13.43 per cent, while Put options concluded at 14.10 per cent. The India VIX, a key market volatility indicator, closed the week at 14.02 per cent.
Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty NSE's banking index closed the week at 55,527.35 points, a fall of 1,051.05 or 1.85 per cent from the previous week's closing of 56,578.40 points.

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