Fantasy Baseball Hitter Targets: Whose process should lead to results?

Today, I'm going to continue my recent stretch of trying to look at hitting process stats to find value in hitters who we can acquire via trade or on the waiver wire. Now that most regular starters have seen 500 pitches or more, we've reached a point in the season where we can look at one of my favorite process stats for hitters, Process+.
If you want to learn a little bit more about Process+, then I highly recommend you check out Nate Schwartz's article, which won an FSW Award. The stat, created by Kyle Bland at Pitcher List, is essentially a hitter's version of Stuff+. It's 'a combination of PLV's Decision Value, Contact, and Power metrics formatted into one holistic number' that represents how good a hitter has been at making good swing decisions, making contact on those swings, and making authoritative contact when he does hit the ball. That gives each hitter a Process Value grade as well as a Performance Value grade, which tries to represent how well they've actually done, independent of just the process.
For today, I'm going to focus on just the Decision Value and Contact Value portions of Process+ since those stabilize at 400 pitches, while Power Value doesn't stabilize until 800 pitches. Obviously, stabilizing doesn't mean a hitter owns that level forever, but it does mean that it's more meaningful and 'sticky' than it would have been at 200 pitches. By focusing on these categories, I'm hoping to continue identifying hitters who are doing everything right in their approach at the plate and making a good deal of contact and meaningful contact. In the long run, those should be the hitters we want to buy in on the most.
You'll find that many of the hitters below are rostered in a lot of leagues, and so maybe they are guys that you can trade for if the surface-level stats haven't yet caught up. However, I hope to also highlight a few hitters who may be underrostered and could still be found of waiver wires in certain leagues.
Hitters Who Just Missed the Cut
There are a few players who made the cut in terms of their Decision Value or Contact Value but fell too low in some of the other criteria. All of Bo Bichette, Josh Jung, CJ Abrams, Yainer Diaz, Kerry Carpenter, and Salvador Perez had over 100 contact Value, but not a single one of them posted over a 90 Decision Value. Some of this is that players like Bichette are able to make contact on a lot of pitches, so they swing at pitches out of the zone a lot, which will lower their Decision Value scores. We also have some guys like Yainer Diaz and who are struggling to start the year, and this Decision Value score may be a decent hint at why.
A few other players I had to remove because their Contact Value is so low. All of Jo Adell, Colt Keith, Andrew Vaughn, Jorge Soler, Kyle Schwarber, Brent Rooker, Rhys Hoskins, Randy Arozarena, Kyle Manzardo, Byron Buxton, and Kyle Stowers had Contact Value scores of 90 or under. Some of these guys, like Adell, Soler, Hoskins, and Stowers, have the power to make up for poor Contact Value scores. I wanted to try and be strict about which hitters truly qualified for this leaderboard, but, for the record, I do think Hoskins, Schwarber, and Rooker are totally fine with their approaches.
Lastly, there are a few hitters who posted below-average Strike Zone Judgment scores and needed to be removed from qualification. That included Oneil Cruz, Will Smith, Lars Nootbaar, Ryan Jeffers, and Ryan O'Hearn.
Fantasy Baseball Hitter Adds
A grade of 100 represents the league average mark for all of these categories.
Look at that company that Gleyber Torres is keeping on the Process+ leaderboard. He's well over the 100 grade mark in every category other than Power, where he still remains above-average. When I wrote up Torres for our Rotoworld digital magazine this off-season, I said, 'After a bounce-back 2023, Torres regressed again in 2024 and tension seemed to grow between him and the Yankees. Now that he's in Detroit, perhaps this is a much-needed fresh start.' So far, it seems that may be the case. He is sporting a career-low chase rate and his lowest swing rate since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. His overall contact rate has jumped up to 82%, and the swinging strike rate (SwStr%) has dropped to 7.6%. That more patient approach has allowed him to post the highest Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) of his career with a 9.3% barrel rate. He's not pulling the ball a lot, but that's OK in Comerica Park since his power will be a bit limited there as well. Everything else is saying that the early-season success for Torres is very much warranted.
Trent Grisham has both come out of nowhere and not this season. Certainly, nobody expected 12 home runs and a 186 wRC+ by the middle of May. Yet, when he left San Diego after the 2023 season, there were a lot of people who wondered if Grisham, who had posted a 12% barrel rate and a 43% pull rate, might really benefit from playing in Yankee Stadium. It didn't work out last year, but we may have been a year early. The injury to Giancarlo Stanton opened up some opportunities for Grisham, and he has recalibrated his approach a bit to be slightly less pull-happy than he was last season and also less passive. Last season, Grisham cut his swing rate down to just 36% overall, and his called strike rate soared. He is now swinging more often but still not chasing out of the zone, which has led to a lot more contact. It is a profile that's eerily similar to what he did in 2023 with the Padres, but with a 12% higher fly ball rate, which has helped both at Yankee Stadium and on the road. The big issue will be playing time. Jasson Dominguez is starting to heat up a bit, and Giancarlo Stanton is set to return (maybe) in the next few weeks. With Ben Rice also playing well, and none of those guys playing 2B or 3B, how can they get everybody into the lineup?
Brendan Donovan is an underrated player in fantasy baseball, but he has a lot of value because of his multi-position eligibility and his strong approach at the plate. He's not doing much differently this year. Perhaps chasing out of the zone slightly less, but it's pretty negligible. Still, this is a profile that worked for him last year and sets him up for another .280, 15 home run season while hitting third in the Cardinals' lineup. That's a player you'd want in most league types.
I've written about Adley Rutschman a few times now, but I don't see anything to be alarmed about. He may never develop into the 'best catcher in baseball' like many thought he would be when he was a prospect, but he's not doing anything now as a hitter that makes me think he's as bad as his stats suggest he is. He has the best barrel rate and the highest average exit velocity of his career. He's chasing almost half as much as he did last year and posting an 87% overall contact rate with just a 4.5% SwStr%. I do think he's being a bit too passive, which has led to an elevated called strike rate, but that's really the only issue I can find. His xBA is .275, and his xSLG is .474, and I think those expected stats match the profile I'm looking at more than the surface-level stats do.
Yandy Diaz is doing the things he always does, but his batting average and on-base percentage are surprisingly low. He's chasing a little bit more out of the zone than we're used to seeing, which has lowered his contact rate by 2%, but he still has an 85.5% contact rate with just a 6.7% SwStr%. He has the third-highest barrel rate of his career and his highest average exit velocity ever. He's also lifting the ball more than he has since 2022, and perhaps that's a bit of an issue with the winds blowing in at his new home ballpark. Diaz is slashing .227/.283/.427 in 28 games at home, but that's where all six of his home runs have come. Is he selling out for a bit more power at home with a 32% fly ball rate, compared to a 29% mark on the road? It seems like just a small difference, so maybe it's just getting accustomed to the new stadium and environment? I don't see anything in the profile here that worries me, and I do see a .285 xBA that feels like it jives with the profile under the hood. I'd expect the summer to be kind to Diaz.
Brandon Nimmo was somebody I covered in an earlier approach article I wrote two weeks ago, and I still feel good about his approach at the plate, so check out that article for more details.
Last week, I wrote about Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in my article that focused on hitters who were attacking the first pitch more this season. In that article, I said that Gurriel was expanding the zone slightly more this season but had a solid overall % contact rate and a good swinging strike rate, which made me interested in adding him. The only issue was that his fly ball rate jumped by a lot, which had led to an alarmingly high 13% infield fly ball rate. I wanted Gurriel to keep the same approach but focus more on line drives and less on getting under the ball. Over the two weeks, he has gone 17-for-51 (.333) with three home runs and 10 RBI, so perhaps he is bringing this all back around.
Taylor Ward is another veteran hitter whose process and underlying skills are not being accurately reflected by his surface-level stats. He currently has a career-high 13.7% barrel rate and 91.2 mph average exit velocity. He's chasing slightly more outside of the zone but is still under 23% overall, which is good. His zone contact rate is 88%, and his overall contact rate is 80%, while his swinging strike rate is 2% better than last year. There's nothing in his swing decisions that suggests he is setting himself up for failure, which makes sense since he is on this leaderboard. So you have a veteran hitter who is making good swing decisions, making a good amount of contact, and making the hardest contact he's ever made. Could he lower the launch angle a bit? Sure, and maybe that's the trick, but I'd be buying shares here if somebody has moved on.
More Fantasy Baseball Hitter Adds
I didn't want to give you a list of mostly guys who are already on rosters and won't be traded, so if we knock down the number of pitches faced to 300, there are a few more hitters who emerge. Now, the Decision Value and Contact Value Stats haven't stabilized yet for these hitters, but it at least gives us a sense of a few additional hitters who are putting themselves in the right spots so far.
So far this season, Jake Meyers is chasing outside of the zone less often than last year, which has helped him improve his contact rate and cut his swinging strike rate. He's not being more aggressive in the zone, but pitchers are challenging him inside the strike zone 7% more often, which is a massive increase. So Meyers is laying off bad pitches and being challenged more, and simply meeting the challenge. He's also focusing on pulling and lifting the ball less, which has led to an all-fields groundball approach that is really helping his batting average. Considering you have Meyers on your team for his speed, we don't care if he's not producing power numbers. This new approach could allow him to hit .270, which would likely lead to 20 stolen bases while playing most days for the Astros. That's a solid player in a lot of league types.
Max Kepler and Alec Bohm appeared in that same article above that I mentioned Brandon Nimmo in, so make sure you check it out for more details, but I'm buying shares of both. It may be hard to get Bohm anymore since he's had a good run of late, but perhaps you can trade for him if somebody in your league wants more power. I still think Bohm will be slightly below average there, but he should be a valuable hitter in the other non-speed categories.
I'm not gonna lie, I was fully out on Jonathan India when he signed in Kansas City. I thought the park would hold up under double-digit home runs, and since he rarely steals bases, I thought you might be looking at a 10/10 season from a guy who hits .250. So far, that's kind of been correct. He's slashing .244/.339/.321 with one home run and no steals on the year. However, he's on this list because his process has been good. He has one of the lowest power scores of any hitters on here because his Decision Value and Contact Value are great. So far, in 13 games in May, he's hitting .296/.367/.426 with four doubles and that one home run. He's still not running, but he is hitting leadoff for the Royals, so if you need batting average and runs, India could be a guy for you. I would just limit that to deeper formats.
Miguel Andujar just won't go away. He won a starting job at the beginning of the year but then seemed to lose it when the Athletics called up Nick Kurtz. Only now, Andujar has seemingly shifted back to the infield and become the starting third baseman for the A's. On the season, he's slashing .316/.344/.444 with three home runs and one steal. Has you can see from the chart, his Decision Value and Contact Value are above-average, but he has fallen below with his Process+ score. Some of that has to do with his poor power numbers, but it's also because he's swinging at almost everything in the strike zone with a 70% zone swing rate. That means some of the pitches he's making contact on are not pitches that he can do damage on, even if they're strikes. Still, he makes an elite amount of contact and has hit a ball 111.4 mph this season, which is the hardest hit baseball since his rookie year. He puts the ball on the ground a lot and has just a 5% barrel rate, so I don't think you're getting the boost that you want that park to give you, but Andujar could hit .270-.280 in the middle of a solid lineup, and that has value in deeper formats.
I spoke with Mark Vientos earlier in the season about how his process had been great, but the results hadn't been there. Not much has changed since then. He is hitting .245/.313/.401 now, so that's a workable batting average if the power was there, but the power has been shockingly absent for Vientos. Yes, his 7% barrel rate isn't bad, and his 91 mph average exit velocity is in line with his career norms, but he's just not capitalizing when he gets his pitch to drive. He's chasing less outside of the zone, swinging more inside of the zone, and making solid contact in the zone. However, his SwStr% is still 13.1%, and he has an overall contact rate under 73%, so I think a lot of this could come down to how he's being pitched. Vientos is seeing more sliders than he ever has and is being pitched away nearly 50% of the time. He's likely trying to go with those pitches, which is why his pull rate has fallen to just 30%. It might make more sense for him to lay off those breaking balls away, even if they are strikes, and wait for something he can do more damage to. There is still a valuable fantasy hitter here, but he just needs to adjust to how MLB pitchers have started to attack him.

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MLB Starting Pitcher News: Jacob Misiorowski debuts, Brayan Bello makes a change

It's Wednesday, which means it's time for us to visit the bump on Hump Day and discuss starting pitcher news. Each week in this article, I'll be taking a deeper look at a few trending/surging starting pitchers to see what, if anything, is changing and whether or not we should be investing in this hot stretch. The article will be similar to the series I ran for a few years called Mixing It Up (previously Pitchers With New Pitches and Should We Care?), where I broke down new pitches to see if there were truly meaningful additions that changed a pitcher's outlook. Only now, I won't just look at new pitches, I can also cover velocity bumps, new usage patterns, or new roles. However, the premise will remain the same: trying to determine if the recent results are connected to any meaningful changes that make them worth investing in or if they're just mirages. Advertisement Each week, I'll try to cover change for at least four starters and give my clear take on whether I would add them, trade for them, or invest fully in their success. Hopefully you'll find it useful, so let's get started. Most of the charts you see below are courtesy of Kyle Bland over at Pitcher List. He created a great spring training app (which he's now carried over into the regular season) that tracks changes in velocity, usage, and pitch movement. It also features a great strike zone plot, which allows you to see how the entire arsenal plays together. I'll also use Alex Chamberlain's awesome work with his Pitch Leaderboard. MLB: Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals 2025 Fantasy Baseball Top 300 update: Rafael Devers' outlook on Giants, Shohei Ohtani back on the mound Advertisement Fallout from the Devers trade and the return of Giancarlo Stanton shake up the rankings this week. Jacob Misiorowski - Milwaukee Brewers (MLB Debut) Brewers starting pitching prospect Jacob Misiorowski made one of the most anticipated MLB debuts of the season last week when he tossed five hitless innings against the Cardinals on Thursday. Part of the intrigue for Misiorowski is his 6'7" frame and also the triple-digit fastball that he can still pump with high velocity deep into starts. His command had taken a step forward in the minors, and so there was a palpable feeling that we might be witnessing a true breakout. So, how did he look in that MLB debut? Misiorowski Pitch We'll start with the fastball because he sat 99 mph with it last week with 7.5 feet of extension, and that's just absurd. That kind of extension will make a 99 mph fastball look like a 102-103 mph pitch and comes with a 1.7 Height Adjusted Vertical Approach Angle, which means it's a flat fastball that fights gravity and seems to rise as it approaches home plate. A pitch with that velocity that also seems to rise is incredibly hard to hit and immediately becomes one of the best fastballs in all of baseball. Advertisement However, this is where the command comes into play. A pitch that electric is often hard to control, and Misiorowski had just a 44% zone rate on it during his debut, which is well below the 52.4% mark that's MLB league average for a starting pitcher. Some of that might be due to nerves, but having just a 9% called strike rate is not great for your four-seam fastball, which is supposed to be a foundational pitch that Misiorowski can also use to get ahead in the count with. Yet, it seems like Misiorowski has another pitch for that, which is his slider/cutter. It's classified as a slider right now, but it's 94.3 mph with just 1.7 inches of horizontal movement and feels an awful lot like a cutter. He had a 48% zone rate on that pitch despite a below-average 56% strike rate. He used it early in the count 70% of the time to righties, which also suggests that he views it as a strike pitch that he can get ahead with. He threw 23 of his 25 cutters to righties, and only threw his four-seam early in the count 33% of the time to righties, so we're seeing a clear approach here. Misiorowski will use the cutter to get ahead on righties and then have the four-seamer as a two-strike pitch, but will use the four-seamer early in the count to lefties and then go to his curveball. He threw seven of his 11 curveballs to lefties and used it in two-strike counts 85.7% of the time, so the plan is pretty clear. It's an 88 mph pitch with nearly 11 inches of drop and six inches of horizontal run and can be downright filthy at times. It's incredibly rare to find a curve that's nearly 90 mph that drops as much as Misiorowski's does, but that could also be why he struggles to command it. All four of his curves to righties were thrown for strikes because it's just a "get me over pitch" against right-handed hitters. However, just two of his seven curves to lefties were for strikes. He missed up and away a handful of times, which indicates he was over-throwing it, and had a below-average PutAway Rate on the pitch, which measures how often a two-strike pitch results in a strikeout. He also threw two nasty changeups to lefties at 91 mph, so maybe that will become a bigger offering for him, but right now we have a three-pitch mix and a pretty clear and narrow arsenal for all hitters. If righties know they're going to get a cutter early and a four-seam late in the count, will they adapt to that plan quickly? If lefties know the two pitches Misiorowski throws to them are two pitches he struggles to command, will they just wait him out? When you pair that with Misiorowski already being 29 innings away from matching his career high, there are some risks with him as a rest-of-season starter. Advertisement I think he needs to be rostered in all formats, and I can easily see a low ERA with plenty of strikeouts the rest of the way. However, I also think there's a chance his WHIP can hurt your ratios, and the Brewers may shut him down in the middle or end of August if they fall out of playoff contention, which I expect them to do. But for now, enjoy the ride. Eury Pérez - Miami Marlins (New Arm Slow, New Sinker, New Curve Grip) Eury Pérez made his long-awaited return to an MLB mound this month after missing all of last season following Tommy John surgery. The 22-year-old is one of the most exciting young pitchers in baseball, but has struggled in his first two appearances, allowing five runs on eight hits in seven innings with five strikeouts and five walks. We've also seen some interesting changes to his pitch mix and mechanics that are worth exploring. For starters, Pérez dropped his arm angle almost five degrees, which you can see in Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard below. His teammate, Edward Cabrera, also dropped his arm angle significantly this season, so you have to wonder if this is an organizational shift for the Marlins. The new arm angle has, obviously, changed the shape of some of Pérez's offerings. His four-seam arm angle has dropped almost seven inches, which has cost him over an inch of Induced Vertical Break (iVB) but added over two inches of arm-side run. Even with that change in shape, he has the same Height Adjusted Vertical Approach angle, so it's still a flat fastball that will succeed up in the zone. Pérez is just not yet locating it there consistently early on, which is to be expected after surgery. Perhaps the new movement profile on the four-seamer will lead to less hard contact when he misses his spot, but sitting 98.1 mph with the pitch is nice to see. Advertisement Pérez also added a sinker this season, which might make some sense when paired with this new four-seam shape. Pérez's sinker is 96.6 mph with over 17 inches of horizontal break, so even though the four-seamer now rides in on righties a bit, the sinker will still bore in on their hands far more. That could create some nice deception and soft contact, but he has been using the sinker more to lefties so far, which is a bit odd to me. Eury The change in arm angle and a reported change in grip have also given his curveball over eight inches more horizontal break and nearly six inches more drop. It comes in about one mph slower than it used to, but he seems to, so far, have an easier time commanding the pitch. That pitch has morphed into his primary secondary offering to lefties, but he has yet to induce a single swinging strike on it against them. Some of that is simply that the pitch is catching too much of the plate, which is something he'll need to iron out as he gets more starts. Righties are still seeing his slider as the primary secondary offering, and that pitch has gotten a bit flatter with the new arm angle. However, the slider has not induced a single swinging strike to righties so far. It's a pretty wild stat between that and the curve to lefties. However, we should note that Pérez has faced FAR more lefties so far in his first two appearances, so we'll take those numbers with a grain of salt. However, the slider has graded out REALLY poorly by PLV so far this season. Advertisement Lastly, we saw a minor change with Pérez's change-up this season, coming in nearly one mph harder and with more arm-side run. However, he's only thrown five, and not one of them has been for a strike. At the end of the day, I don't see this as a package I'm pursuing right now in shallower redraft leagues. If you have the bench space and you want to stash him to see how the next few starts go, I have no issue with that, but Pérez is going to need to figure out his curveball and/or slider this season before he starts racking up strikeouts. The Marlins also have no reason to push him beyond 80-ish pitches per game in his first season back from injury. I'll be heavily invested in Pérez for next season, but I'm only taking low-cost shares for 2025. 2025 Fantasy Baseball: 60 Undervalued Players, from Jasson Domínguez to Bo Bichette Advertisement 60 undervalued players to help you win your fantasy league. Brayan Bello - Boston Red Sox (Cutter Usage) Bello is evolving before our eyes and is turning into a type of pitcher none of us ever expected him to be. When he debuted, Bello had an elite changeup but lacked a plus fastball or a great swing-and-miss breaking pitch. He has since developed a good slider, but the changeup has left him almost completely. Now, it seems that Bello is relying on three variations of a fastball (four-seam, sinker, and cutter), while mixing in his sweeper and changeup. Bello threw his cutter for the first time this season on May 13th. He then didn't throw a single cutter in his next outing, but from May 23rd on, Bello has thrown his cutter 13% of the time, including a career-high 33% usage on Sunday. Over that same span, he's using his sinker 39% of the time and sweeper 23% of the time, while dropping his changeup rate to 12% and kicking his four-seam usage up to an equal 12%. It's a pretty drastic shift for the 26-year-old, but is it one that can work? Brayan Bello changes In his start against the Yankees on Sunday, Bello used his cutter as his primary fastball to both righties and lefties, but it was such an anomaly in his usage pattern that we have to wonder if this was just a gameplan against the Yankees. However, Boston has also tweaked their entire pitching philosophy over the last week and has leaned harder into fastball usage than they have since Andrew Bailey became the pitching coach. The cutter is Bello's best fastball, so this may be a new avenue forward for him. Advertisement He can locate the pitch in the zone well, using it more as a strike pitch for lefties but bringing it in as a two-strike offering for right-handed hitters as well. The cutter is about 89 mph with just 1.5 inches of horizontal movement and very little drop, but it has been great as a two-strike pitch to righties, posting a 28.6% chase rate in those counts and a 28.6% PutAway Rate. We're dealing with a small sample size here, but because Bello throws his slider 36% of the time in two-strike counts to righties, he's able to create some deception by mixing in the cutter in those counts too. The cutter doesn't miss a ton of bats, but it's Bello's best fastball variation and gives him another pitch he can command while he struggles to harness his changeup. Bello's change has a league-average swinging strike rate to lefties, and his slider has a league-average swinging strike rate to righties, so having multiple fastball variations where he can get ahead certainly raises his floor. However, I still think Bello won't take a true leap forward until he figures out his changeup, which is, for some reason, now over two mph harder than it has been in his career and is posting a career-worst zone rate and strike rate. That's going to be the true key to unlocking Bello, but I do think this new cutter usage makes him a bit safer by raising his floor. Brandon Walter - Houston Astros (Pitch Mix Review) Moving from one Red Sox pitcher to a former Red Sox pitcher. Walter was a 26th-round pick by the Red Sox in 2019 and emerged onto the prospect radar in 2021 after a solid season split between A-ball and High-A. He then posted a 2.88 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 68/3 K/BB ratio in 50 innings at Double-A in 2022. However, he struggled in a promotion to Triple-A that year and struggled again in Triple-A in 2023 before getting promoted anyway and posting a 6.26 ERA in 23 innings out of the bullpen for the Red Sox. He suffered a rotator cuff injury that kept him out all of the 2024 season and was designated for assignment after the Red Sox acquired Lucas Sims at last year's deadline. Advertisement A member of the Astros organization since last August, Walter has made a few changes since we last saw him in big league games in 2023. For starters, his cutter velocity is up from 87 mph to 88.3 mph and features double the iVB while cutting down on some of the horizontal run. As you can see below, it's his primary fastball offering, and he uses it exclusively against right-handed hitters. He does a nice job getting the pitch inside, but keeps it more in the middle of the zone rather than attacking up or down with it. The pitch has high zone and strike rates, but it also doesn't miss many bats and has a 47% Ideal Contact Rate allowed, so that's not an ideal pairing. Brandon Walter mix He uses this cutter 72% of the time early in counts to right-handed hitters, so even if it doesn't get swings and misses, as long as he can get ahead with it, the pitch is doing its job. He then comes back with a sweeper that he throws 41% of the time in two-strike counts to righties and a changeup that he uses 34% of the time in two-strike counts. The sweeper is another pitch that he doesn't focus much on burying low in the zone, but it has a 72nd percentile PutAway rate to righties, likely because of how it plays off of his cutter. Advertisement The changeup is another high zone rate pitch that has an absurdly low 17% ICR allowed to righties while also posting a league-average swinging strike rate. He does a good job keeping it in the lower half of the strike zone and away from righties, which is who he throws it to exclusively. That's a pretty solid three-pitch mix against right-handed hitters that won't lead to tons of strikeouts but should lead to a fair amount of weak contact. Lefties see a heavy dose of Walters' sweeper, both early in the count and with two-strikes, and also get an equally heavy dose of sinkers that weirdly have an 83rd percentile PutAway Rate against lefties. He'll mix in the odd four-seamer to lefties and righties, which means that he has four pitches he can use to righties and three he can use to lefties, all while locating his pitch in the zone well. The easy comparison here will be Ryan Yarbrough, and I understand that, since both are low-velocity lefties with a funky arm angle and a five-pitch mix that relies primarily on a cutter and sweeper. However, Walter throws over three mph harder than Yarbrough, while Yarbrough has registered more swing-and-miss so far this season. To me, Walter is more of a 15-team league option, but I like him more than Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon because I think his pitch mix is deeper, and I can see a clear attack plan for both righties and lefties. He's still a streamer, but in deeper formats, I'd be OK using him against the bottom half of the league, and I think he can outlast his two teammates and remain in Houston's rotation.

NBC Sports

4 days ago

• NBC Sports

MLB Starting Pitcher News: Jacob Misiorowski debuts, Brayan Bello makes a change

It's Wednesday, which means it's time for us to visit the bump on Hump Day and discuss starting pitcher news. Each week in this article, I'll be taking a deeper look at a few trending/surging starting pitchers to see what, if anything, is changing and whether or not we should be investing in this hot stretch. The article will be similar to the series I ran for a few years called Mixing It Up (previously Pitchers With New Pitches and Should We Care?), where I broke down new pitches to see if there were truly meaningful additions that changed a pitcher's outlook. Only now, I won't just look at new pitches, I can also cover velocity bumps, new usage patterns, or new roles. However, the premise will remain the same: trying to determine if the recent results are connected to any meaningful changes that make them worth investing in or if they're just mirages. Each week, I'll try to cover change for at least four starters and give my clear take on whether I would add them, trade for them, or invest fully in their success. Hopefully you'll find it useful, so let's get started. Most of the charts you see below are courtesy of Kyle Bland over at Pitcher List. He created a great spring training app (which he's now carried over into the regular season) that tracks changes in velocity, usage, and pitch movement. It also features a great strike zone plot, which allows you to see how the entire arsenal plays together. I'll also use Alex Chamberlain's awesome work with his Pitch Leaderboard. Matthew Pouliot, Brewers starting pitching prospect Jacob Misiorowski made one of the most anticipated MLB debuts of the season last week when he tossed five hitless innings against the Cardinals on Thursday. Part of the intrigue for Misiorowski is his 6'7" frame and also the triple-digit fastball that he can still pump with high velocity deep into starts. His command had taken a step forward in the minors, and so there was a palpable feeling that we might be witnessing a true breakout. So, how did he look in that MLB debut? Pitcher List We'll start with the fastball because he sat 99 mph with it last week with 7.5 feet of extension, and that's just absurd. That kind of extension will make a 99 mph fastball look like a 102-103 mph pitch and comes with a 1.7 Height Adjusted Vertical Approach Angle, which means it's a flat fastball that fights gravity and seems to rise as it approaches home plate. A pitch with that velocity that also seems to rise is incredibly hard to hit and immediately becomes one of the best fastballs in all of baseball. However, this is where the command comes into play. A pitch that electric is often hard to control, and Misiorowski had just a 44% zone rate on it during his debut, which is well below the 52.4% mark that's MLB league average for a starting pitcher. Some of that might be due to nerves, but having just a 9% called strike rate is not great for your four-seam fastball, which is supposed to be a foundational pitch that Misiorowski can also use to get ahead in the count with. Yet, it seems like Misiorowski has another pitch for that, which is his slider/cutter. It's classified as a slider right now, but it's 94.3 mph with just 1.7 inches of horizontal movement and feels an awful lot like a cutter. He had a 48% zone rate on that pitch despite a below-average 56% strike rate. He used it early in the count 70% of the time to righties, which also suggests that he views it as a strike pitch that he can get ahead with. He threw 23 of his 25 cutters to righties, and only threw his four-seam early in the count 33% of the time to righties, so we're seeing a clear approach here. Misiorowski will use the cutter to get ahead on righties and then have the four-seamer as a two-strike pitch, but will use the four-seamer early in the count to lefties and then go to his curveball. He threw seven of his 11 curveballs to lefties and used it in two-strike counts 85.7% of the time, so the plan is pretty clear. It's an 88 mph pitch with nearly 11 inches of drop and six inches of horizontal run and can be downright filthy at times. It's incredibly rare to find a curve that's nearly 90 mph that drops as much as Misiorowski's does, but that could also be why he struggles to command it. All four of his curves to righties were thrown for strikes because it's just a 'get me over pitch' against right-handed hitters. However, just two of his seven curves to lefties were for strikes. He missed up and away a handful of times, which indicates he was over-throwing it, and had a below-average PutAway Rate on the pitch, which measures how often a two-strike pitch results in a strikeout. He also threw two nasty changeups to lefties at 91 mph, so maybe that will become a bigger offering for him, but right now we have a three-pitch mix and a pretty clear and narrow arsenal for all hitters. If righties know they're going to get a cutter early and a four-seam late in the count, will they adapt to that plan quickly? If lefties know the two pitches Misiorowski throws to them are two pitches he struggles to command, will they just wait him out? When you pair that with Misiorowski already being 29 innings away from matching his career high, there are some risks with him as a rest-of-season starter. I think he needs to be rostered in all formats, and I can easily see a low ERA with plenty of strikeouts the rest of the way. However, I also think there's a chance his WHIP can hurt your ratios, and the Brewers may shut him down in the middle or end of August if they fall out of playoff contention, which I expect them to do. But for now, enjoy the ride. Eury Pérez made his long-awaited return to an MLB mound this month after missing all of last season following Tommy John surgery. The 22-year-old is one of the most exciting young pitchers in baseball, but has struggled in his first two appearances, allowing five runs on eight hits in seven innings with five strikeouts and five walks. We've also seen some interesting changes to his pitch mix and mechanics that are worth exploring. For starters, Pérez dropped his arm angle almost five degrees, which you can see in Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard below. His teammate, Edward Cabrera, also dropped his arm angle significantly this season, so you have to wonder if this is an organizational shift for the Marlins. The new arm angle has, obviously, changed the shape of some of Pérez's offerings. His four-seam arm angle has dropped almost seven inches, which has cost him over an inch of Induced Vertical Break (iVB) but added over two inches of arm-side run. Even with that change in shape, he has the same Height Adjusted Vertical Approach angle, so it's still a flat fastball that will succeed up in the zone. Pérez is just not yet locating it there consistently early on, which is to be expected after surgery. Perhaps the new movement profile on the four-seamer will lead to less hard contact when he misses his spot, but sitting 98.1 mph with the pitch is nice to see. Pérez also added a sinker this season, which might make some sense when paired with this new four-seam shape. Pérez's sinker is 96.6 mph with over 17 inches of horizontal break, so even though the four-seamer now rides in on righties a bit, the sinker will still bore in on their hands far more. That could create some nice deception and soft contact, but he has been using the sinker more to lefties so far, which is a bit odd to me. Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard The change in arm angle and a reported change in grip have also given his curveball over eight inches more horizontal break and nearly six inches more drop. It comes in about one mph slower than it used to, but he seems to, so far, have an easier time commanding the pitch. That pitch has morphed into his primary secondary offering to lefties, but he has yet to induce a single swinging strike on it against them. Some of that is simply that the pitch is catching too much of the plate, which is something he'll need to iron out as he gets more starts. Righties are still seeing his slider as the primary secondary offering, and that pitch has gotten a bit flatter with the new arm angle. However, the slider has not induced a single swinging strike to righties so far. It's a pretty wild stat between that and the curve to lefties. However, we should note that Pérez has faced FAR more lefties so far in his first two appearances, so we'll take those numbers with a grain of salt. However, the slider has graded out REALLY poorly by PLV so far this season. Lastly, we saw a minor change with Pérez's change-up this season, coming in nearly one mph harder and with more arm-side run. However, he's only thrown five, and not one of them has been for a strike. At the end of the day, I don't see this as a package I'm pursuing right now in shallower redraft leagues. If you have the bench space and you want to stash him to see how the next few starts go, I have no issue with that, but Pérez is going to need to figure out his curveball and/or slider this season before he starts racking up strikeouts. The Marlins also have no reason to push him beyond 80-ish pitches per game in his first season back from injury. I'll be heavily invested in Pérez for next season, but I'm only taking low-cost shares for 2025. Bello is evolving before our eyes and is turning into a type of pitcher none of us ever expected him to be. When he debuted, Bello had an elite changeup but lacked a plus fastball or a great swing-and-miss breaking pitch. He has since developed a good slider, but the changeup has left him almost completely. Now, it seems that Bello is relying on three variations of a fastball (four-seam, sinker, and cutter), while mixing in his sweeper and changeup. Bello threw his cutter for the first time this season on May 13th. He then didn't throw a single cutter in his next outing, but from May 23rd on, Bello has thrown his cutter 13% of the time, including a career-high 33% usage on Sunday. Over that same span, he's using his sinker 39% of the time and sweeper 23% of the time, while dropping his changeup rate to 12% and kicking his four-seam usage up to an equal 12%. It's a pretty drastic shift for the 26-year-old, but is it one that can work? In his start against the Yankees on Sunday, Bello used his cutter as his primary fastball to both righties and lefties, but it was such an anomaly in his usage pattern that we have to wonder if this was just a gameplan against the Yankees. However, Boston has also tweaked their entire pitching philosophy over the last week and has leaned harder into fastball usage than they have since Andrew Bailey became the pitching coach. The cutter is Bello's best fastball, so this may be a new avenue forward for him. He can locate the pitch in the zone well, using it more as a strike pitch for lefties but bringing it in as a two-strike offering for right-handed hitters as well. The cutter is about 89 mph with just 1.5 inches of horizontal movement and very little drop, but it has been great as a two-strike pitch to righties, posting a 28.6% chase rate in those counts and a 28.6% PutAway Rate. We're dealing with a small sample size here, but because Bello throws his slider 36% of the time in two-strike counts to righties, he's able to create some deception by mixing in the cutter in those counts too. The cutter doesn't miss a ton of bats, but it's Bello's best fastball variation and gives him another pitch he can command while he struggles to harness his changeup. Bello's change has a league-average swinging strike rate to lefties, and his slider has a league-average swinging strike rate to righties, so having multiple fastball variations where he can get ahead certainly raises his floor. However, I still think Bello won't take a true leap forward until he figures out his changeup, which is, for some reason, now over two mph harder than it has been in his career and is posting a career-worst zone rate and strike rate. That's going to be the true key to unlocking Bello, but I do think this new cutter usage makes him a bit safer by raising his floor. Moving from one Red Sox pitcher to a former Red Sox pitcher. Walter was a 26th-round pick by the Red Sox in 2019 and emerged onto the prospect radar in 2021 after a solid season split between A-ball and High-A. He then posted a 2.88 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 68/3 K/BB ratio in 50 innings at Double-A in 2022. However, he struggled in a promotion to Triple-A that year and struggled again in Triple-A in 2023 before getting promoted anyway and posting a 6.26 ERA in 23 innings out of the bullpen for the Red Sox. He suffered a rotator cuff injury that kept him out all of the 2024 season and was designated for assignment after the Red Sox acquired Lucas Sims at last year's deadline. A member of the Astros organization since last August, Walter has made a few changes since we last saw him in big league games in 2023. For starters, his cutter velocity is up from 87 mph to 88.3 mph and features double the iVB while cutting down on some of the horizontal run. As you can see below, it's his primary fastball offering, and he uses it exclusively against right-handed hitters. He does a nice job getting the pitch inside, but keeps it more in the middle of the zone rather than attacking up or down with it. The pitch has high zone and strike rates, but it also doesn't miss many bats and has a 47% Ideal Contact Rate allowed, so that's not an ideal pairing. He uses this cutter 72% of the time early in counts to right-handed hitters, so even if it doesn't get swings and misses, as long as he can get ahead with it, the pitch is doing its job. He then comes back with a sweeper that he throws 41% of the time in two-strike counts to righties and a changeup that he uses 34% of the time in two-strike counts. The sweeper is another pitch that he doesn't focus much on burying low in the zone, but it has a 72nd percentile PutAway rate to righties, likely because of how it plays off of his cutter. The changeup is another high zone rate pitch that has an absurdly low 17% ICR allowed to righties while also posting a league-average swinging strike rate. He does a good job keeping it in the lower half of the strike zone and away from righties, which is who he throws it to exclusively. That's a pretty solid three-pitch mix against right-handed hitters that won't lead to tons of strikeouts but should lead to a fair amount of weak contact. Lefties see a heavy dose of Walters' sweeper, both early in the count and with two-strikes, and also get an equally heavy dose of sinkers that weirdly have an 83rd percentile PutAway Rate against lefties. He'll mix in the odd four-seamer to lefties and righties, which means that he has four pitches he can use to righties and three he can use to lefties, all while locating his pitch in the zone well. The easy comparison here will be Ryan Yarbrough, and I understand that, since both are low-velocity lefties with a funky arm angle and a five-pitch mix that relies primarily on a cutter and sweeper. However, Walter throws over three mph harder than Yarbrough, while Yarbrough has registered more swing-and-miss so far this season. To me, Walter is more of a 15-team league option, but I like him more than Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon because I think his pitch mix is deeper, and I can see a clear attack plan for both righties and lefties. He's still a streamer, but in deeper formats, I'd be OK using him against the bottom half of the league, and I think he can outlast his two teammates and remain in Houston's rotation.