IMD forecasts above-normal monsoon rainfall
New Delhi/Bengaluru: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday that the country would receive above-normal rainfall during the June-September southwest monsoon season this year. The core monsoon zone area will also receive above-normal rainfall this season.
'The associated rainfall will be 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 870 mm, which indicates above-normal rainfall for the season,' said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General, IMD, while releasing the second-stage long-range forecast (LRF) in New Delhi.
The IMD thus revised its prediction of 105 per cent of the LPA, made in the first-stage LRF, issued in April.
For the first time, the IMD has released the seasonal rainfall forecast at the level of a meteorological subdivision. Rainfall across south peninsular and central India will be above normal and quantitatively above 106 per cent of the LPA. Normal seasonal rainfall is forecast for northwest India–96-104 per cent of the LPA. However, below-normal seasonal rainfall (less than 94 per cent of the LPA) is expected over northeast India, Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir this year.
Most importantly, the core monsoon zone will receive 106 per cent of the LPA and this rainfall will largely benefit the rain-fed agriculture practised in this region. India receives over 75 per cent of its annual rainfall during the June-September season and this rainfall is important for kharif crops.
This year, the southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24, which was early by eight days. Since then, the monsoon has made swift progress, covering some parts of Maharashtra, the entire northeast and most of the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea regions.
On the early onset, M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said, 'There were multiple large-scale features like the El Nino southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole, among others, that remained favourable.'
The IMD has predicted normal to above-normal rainfall in June over most regions of the country and quantitatively it will be 108 per cent of the LPA, which is 166 mm. Below-normal rainfall is expected over the extreme north regions of India, including Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, along with northeast regions of the country.
The IMD said the heatwave days would be below normal. Normally, heatwave events last two-three days in June. 'But this year, due to above-normal rainfall, the heatwave will be below normal. Heatwave will remain limited to northwest India,' explained Mohapatra.
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