Power struggles in US politics - Culture - Al-Ahram Weekly
Recent disputes at the top of US politics have drawn attention to a system that depends on the money of billionaires to win elections.
What happens when political leaders and business tycoons get into open conflicts can be of much interest to the media and even entertaining for many curious onlookers. But such feuds when they happen in the US may very well shake the economy not only of the world's only superpower, but also those of some of its allies in the Middle East as well.
The ongoing protests in Los Angeles in California over actions by US federal immigration enforcement officers seem to have temporarily bridged the gap between the two most influential men in the United States — US President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
After weeks of disputes between the president and his most influential billionaire ally, the protests now seem to have caused Musk to soften his tone, express regrets for his calls for the impeachment of Trump, and even to praise the administration in the face of the riots.
Last weekend, Musk's followers woke up to find that most of his previous posts about the president including allegations that Trump's name appears in documents related to convicted US sex offender and financier Jeffrey Epstein have been deleted.
The tech billionaire, who was long seen as a supporter of Trump's policies regarding closed borders, curbing illegal immigration, and carrying out more deportations in the US, went further to admit that he regretted some of his posts against the president.
'I regret some of my posts about President@realDonaldTrump last week. They went too far,' Musk wrote on X.
Trump reacted indifferently, saying that he was too busy to respond. He told the US network CNN that he was 'not even thinking about Elon' and would not be speaking to Musk 'for a while'.
He said that he 'was disappointed in Elon', adding that he was 'really surprised' the billionaire had criticised his tax cut bill, also known as the One Big Beautiful Bill, one of the main legislative initiatives of the administration.
Many described this softening of tone in the Trump-Musk dispute as a 'fragile peace' that does not mean that the two allies are back to normal, however. Trump has made it clear that he will not resolve his feud with Musk over tax cuts any time soon. But what really matters here is the significance of such feuds and how they could impact the US and world economy.
The public breakup between the two powerful leaders has a deeper significance. It is a blunt show of what happens when big money is poured into politics and how the US is facing a tangle of challenges as a result of Trump's largely unpredictable policies in all domains, economic, political, and humanitarian.
The public dispute between Trump and Musk did not break out all of a sudden. Not so long ago, Musk was Trump's close ally and co-head of his administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where the tech billionaire spearheaded the mass layoff of federal workers.
But recent weeks witnessed murky waters between the president and his businessman ally. The first sparks broke when Trump was apparently annoyed by Musk's criticism of DOGE's ability to reduce bureaucracy.
The tension increased after the White House withdrew the name of Jared Isaacman, Musk's nominee for the head of the US space agency NASA, on the suggestion of Sergio Gor, director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office, who has been at constant odds with Musk.
The tension reached a breaking point when Musk slammed Trump's massive tax cut and domestic policy bill, labelling it a 'disgusting abomination' for what he said would be its negative impact on US government finances.
Among Musk's posts on X was one saying that Trump would have lost last year's presidential election without him. The dispute intensified after Trump warned Musk not to support Democratic Party appeals against the Republicans over the budget law.
ECONOMIC REPERCUSSIONS: The question of whether the Musk-Trump breakup will negatively affect investors' confidence in the US, particularly in the field of technology and the stock market, remains open.
The conflict has already affected companies owned by Musk, as their shares fell amid losses estimated at $150 billion.
Tesla stock was downgraded in the aftermath of the Musk-Trump dispute. Analysts at Baird, a US financial research firm, warned that Tesla stock's plunge was largely related to Musk's involvement in politics, which has become a concern for investors and the markets.
Trump has continued to say that Musk-related government contracts are also at stake. He previously told the US network NBC News that Musk would face 'serious consequences' if he contributed to Democratic candidates.
Ahmed Shawky, an assistant professor of finance at the Islamic University of Minnesota in the US, confirmed that the Trump-Musk dispute may lead to the termination of Musk's contracts with the US Department of Defense, which are worth about $22 billion.
Trump had told reporters that a review of Musk's extensive contracts with the federal government was in order. 'We'll take a look at everything,' the president said. 'It's a lot of money.'
Shawky said that the dispute should not be seen in a personal context, however. 'It is a dispute between the head of the most influential state in the world and one of the richest businessmen in the world, which has resulted in big investment losses,' he elaborated. 'This may raise concerns among investors who may avoid taking US government investments, particularly in the light of the decline of the US dollar.'
According to Shawky, Trump's controversial economic policies have already affected investors' appetite to invest in the US, particularly in the technology and transportation sectors.
Economist Assem Mansour concurred, adding that the current turmoil in US markets in the aftermath of Trump's policies and the Trump-Musk dispute may well redraw the map of capital flows from the Middle East and investors' readiness to take risks.
'If the US political crisis turns into a major economic crisis, a decline in global energy demand will probably occur, especially if these developments are accompanied by a slowdown in China,' Mansour told Al-Ahram Weekly.
'Global energy demand indicators remain relatively strong for now, driven by the recovery in emerging economies,' Mansour said. 'However, a recession remains one of the possible scenarios over the coming months.'
There is also the question of how Gulf investors will balance their economic interests with Musk while maintaining their close alliance with Trump.
The Gulf countries have been keen on diversifying their investments in artificial intelligence, technology, and renewable energy rather than depending on oil as their only source of revenue.
Companies such as Musk's Tesla and Starlink thus represent promising investment opportunities for the Gulf. In the meantime, the Gulf countries are keen to maintain a balance in their partnerships, and it remains questionable whether they will invest with Musk while maintaining good relations with Trump.
'The Gulf states are unlikely to enter into a unilateral alliance with any party,' Mansour maintained. 'The strategic interest of the region depends largely on a diversified partnership, benefiting from American technology and Western innovation, on the one hand, and from Chinese expertise and infrastructure, on the other. This balance is what characterises Gulf economic policy at the moment.'
Internal feuds, however, are always an opportunity for opponents to kick in, and the Trump-Musk dispute, which seems part of a larger picture of an unstable economic and political landscape in the States, may well pave the way for US rivals, mainly China, to gain new markets in the Middle East.
Mansour would not rule out this scenario.
'China will certainly seek to exploit any vacuum left by US tensions in the region,' he noted. 'China works to provide integrated solutions in the fields of technology and smart cities, and it will try to enhance the position of its currency on the exchanges. The Middle East has become an arena of strategic competition between the major powers, and China is moving in this context with a long-term vision.'
However, Hani Al-Jamal, an expert in international relations, believes that 'the size of the Gulf's technological partnerships with the United States, signed during Trump's visit earlier this year, shows that the Gulf is currently heading towards the US and not China.'
He added 'that there are many investment and political ties between the United States and the Gulf.'
The Gulf will not refuse investments in China, especially after the military superiority shown by Chinese weapons in the recent India-Pakistan conflict. 'The Gulf will probably work on two parallel lines to take advantage of the tremendous technological advances of both the United States and China,' Al-Jamal concluded.
ISRAELI INTERESTS: The Musk-Trump dispute may also pose a challenge to Israel as a close ally of Trump and with huge interests in the telecommunications and artificial intelligence sectors.
According to Al-Jamal, Israel has been a focus area for Musk, especially since he owns Starlink, which has been providing Israel with espionage technology for years.
'In the light of the uncertainty in the relations between [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu and Trump, Netanyahu is likely to continue his cooperation with Musk,' Al-Jamal said.
'Musk's Starlink provides Israel with a comparative advantage. It gives it full coverage of top-notch Internet networks and social media that work against all the odds and in spite of any global circumstances. This makes it difficult for Israel to stop its cooperation with Musk.'
Some analysts speculate that the Trump-Musk breakup will further deepen Musk's relationship with Israel, particularly in the light of Musk's talk about the launch of a new political party through which he might even present himself as a future president of the United States.
Musk's financial resources and development projects in several sectors may push Netanyahu to bet on him. After all, X has provided a great platform for Israel to justify its war on Gaza and silence critics.
One question that erupted in the wake of the Trump-Musk dispute was how it would affect the International Space Station (ISS).
Musk threatened to retaliate by halting his company SpaceX's Dragon flights to the ISS. How those delays could affect the operation of the ISS and the safety of astronauts is a major concern among specialists, who have started to discuss possible alternatives.
Alaa Al-Azzam, an assistant professor in the Department of Physics at the University of Jordan who specialises in atomic and molecular physics for space science applications, told the Weekly that 'suspending or delaying Dragon flights directly affects the operation of the International Space Station, as it hinders the rotation of astronauts, hinders the arrival of supplies and scientific experiments, and reduces the readiness of the vehicle as an emergency means for the crew.'
According to Al-Azzam, current alternatives include the Russian Soyuz vehicle, which was the primary means of transporting astronauts to the ISS between 2000 and 2020.
'Soyuz served all human flights, including those by NASA astronauts,' she said. 'But when Dragon was introduced, it became the main means for the American crew. Soyuz is also used to transport Russian astronauts and some international partners, and it is considered a reliable alternative despite its limited seats and the need for political and technical coordination with Russia.'
In the meantime, Boeing's Starliner, a new US crew transport vehicle that has entered its final stages of testing and began its first manned test flight in 2025, is expected to become an additional alternative to take astronauts to the ISS.
Northrop Grumman's unmanned cargo vehicle Cygnus has been regularly used since 2013 to transport supplies and scientific experiments to the station, but it does not transport astronauts and is not used as an emergency vehicle, according to Al-Azzam.
MONEY AND POLITICS: The question of the attitudes of the US public to Musk's pouring money into Trump's electoral campaign is also open.
In an opinion piece titled 'Trump Musk feud shows what happens when unregulated money floods politics,' UK journalist Rachel Leingang from the British daily The Guardian made it clear that 'Musk isn't the first or last billionaire to pour big money into US elections.'
'Without me, Trump would have lost the elections, the Dems would control the House, and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate. Such ingratitude,' Musk wrote on his X social platform.
'Billionaires in the US often seek to influence politics in big and small ways, throwing their money and influence around to extract what they want from the government,' Leingang wrote. 'But few are as explicit and influential as Musk has proven in the past year, and it's showing just how transactional and broken US governance has become.'
Mehdi Afifi, a member of the Democratic Party, similarly noted that 'money has become a key element in politics in the US.'
'The two parties [the Republicans and Democrats] have contributed to legalising this through allowing huge funding pools to support candidates,' he told the Weekly. 'Despite the criticism that the Republicans are facing for supporting the wealthy and reducing taxes, the Democrats are also seeking to attract the same technology moguls who previously supported Trump. So, both parties bear responsibility for the current political landscape being stormed by the new financiers.'
'The Trump-Musk battle exemplifies the post-Citizens United picture of US politics: the world's richest person paid handsomely to elect his favoured candidate, then took a formal, if temporary, role with a new governmental initiative created for him that focused on dismantling parts of the government he didn't like,' Leingang wrote, referring to a US Supreme Court decision in 2010 that helped to introduce more money into politics.
Analyst Adrian Calamil told the Weekly that 'presidential candidates in the US rely on the support of businessmen due to the huge costs of the elections, which raises doubts about conflicts of interest, as in the relationship between Trump and Musk, or the influence of [US financier George] Soros.'
'The most dangerous issue here may be the interference of foreign funds, such as Qatar's spending to influence the 2024 elections, which weakens confidence in democracy and worries everyone,' she said.
For now, many Americans seem to have no other alternative than 'sitting ringside to a fight between the mega-rich president and the far-richer Republican donor to see who can cut more services from the poor,' as Leingang put it.
'As one satirical website also titled it, 'Aw! These Billionaires Are Fighting Over How Much Money to Steal from Poor People,'' Leingang concluded.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 19 June, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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