Satellite Images Reveal Trump's Dilemma Over Iran Nuclear Complex
As the world waits to see if the US joins Israel in its war with Iran, the latest evidence from the ground suggests they would need to significantly escalate attacks if they want to eradicate the Islamic Republic's nuclear capabilities.
Satellite images show atomic installations were only grazed after four days of bombardment. Damage to Iran's central enrichment facility in Natanz, located 300 kilometers (186 miles) south of Tehran, is primarily limited to electricity switch yards and transformers, based on pictures from June 17. While those installations are critical, experts say they can be repaired within months.
'They did damage but left a lot intact,' said Robert Kelley, a former inspector at the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, who previously ran one of the US-government's premier satellite imagery labs.
The images provided by US-based Planet Labs PBC and analyzed by Kelley underscore the wide margin of error confronting US military planners who are deciding whether to enter the conflict. Donald Trump's spokeswoman said the president will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran, while Israel continued to hit more Iranian nuclear sites.
Iran Runs a Network of Interconnected Nuclear Facilities
These are the main steps involved in the nuclear fuel cycle...
Far from being just static points on a map, Iran's ambitions to make the fuel needed for nuclear power plants and weapons are embedded in a heavily fortified infrastructure nationwide. Thousands of scientists and engineers work at dozens of sites.
Moreover, the country's near bomb-grade uranium stockpiles — which can be neatly tucked into as few as 16 small canisters — are a moving target. Uranium shifts back, forth and throughout its nuclear-fuel complex, challenging the IAEA's ability to account for material that could be diverted for weapons.
Uranium Moves to Multiple Sites Around Iran, and its Current Unknown Location Has Experts on Edge
The United Nations nuclear watchdog said it had lost track of the location of Iran's highly-enriched uranium stockpile this week because Israel's ongoing military assaults are preventing its inspectors from doing their work.
The IAEA's monitors remain in Tehran and conducted almost 500 nuclear inspections last year. But they have been sidelined since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu started the bombing campaign on June 13.
'I'm not so sure,' IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi told Bloomberg Television this week, when asked about the uranium. 'In a time of war, all nuclear sites are closed. No inspections, no normal activity can take place.'
The IAEA's central mission is to account for gram-levels of uranium around the world and to ensure it isn't used for nuclear weapons. The Vienna-based agency has already had to reassess key findings based on satellite images.
Natanz Is Iran's Primary Uranium Enrichment Site
Natanz's underground enrichment halls are protected by 40 meters (131 feet) of earth, reinforced steel and concrete. After first reporting Israel dealt no damage to them, the IAEA changed course three days later, saying new satellite imagery suggested 'direct impacts.'
Centrifuges — machines spinning at supersonic speeds to separate the isotopes needed for nuclear fuel — need a constant feed of electricity to prevent them from spinning out of control. An alleged 2021 Israeli act of sabotage at the site caused damage to some centrifuges, which the Iranians were able to repair within months.
'Any competent designer will have backup power, either batteries or generators,' said Kelley, a veteran of the US Department of Energy's nuclear weapons complex. There's little evidence to question the competence of Iranian engineers, and the primary electrical damage at Natanz could be fixed within months, according to Kelley.
Isfahan Complex Is the Hub of Nationwide Program
At the center of Iran's nuclear program is Isfahan's Nuclear Technology and Research Center. Located 450 kilometers south of Tehran, the site has seven facilities frequently visited by IAEA inspectors. It's the key hub for critical chemical processes turning uranium ore into feedstock that can be enriched and then turned into metallic fuel.
The IAEA reported late on Thursday that there was damage to Isfahan's central chemical laboratory, a uranium conversion plant, a reactor fuel manufacturing plant and the enriched uranium metal processing facility.
Isfahan was also the last place Iran's 409-kilogram stockpile of highly-enriched uranium — equivalent of 10 bombs-worth of material that could quickly be enriched to weapons grade — was seen by IAEA inspectors after visits stopped last week.
Iran told diplomats on May 22 that it was planning 'special measures' to protect its uranium inventory in the event of an Israeli attack, but the IAEA still didn't know what those measures are or whether the material is still there.
'We haven't been informed of anything in detail,' Grossi said on June 18. 'Iran is aware this stockpile needs to be under constant IAEA supervision.'
While the IAEA reported on June 15 that Israel dealt critical damage to facilities at Isfahan, Kelley said satellite images taken the day after showed only 'very little' impact from the Israel strikes.
Bomb scars at the center of the site, next to a tiled square planted with trees, suggest the air strikes targeted places where key personnel were likely to congregate, Kelley said. He declined to speculate about the precise location of Iran's uranium stockpile.
The nuclear site that has captured the most attention of military planners is in Fordow, built into the side of a mountain at a depth approaching at least 100 meters.
Destroying the advanced-enrichment facility would need aerial bombardment using the most-powerful conventional explosives. Israel lacks the heavy bombs and B-2 stealth jets to penetrate the site, located near the holy city of Qom.
Smaller munitions may be able to take out Fordow's power and collapse access tunnels, but experts suggest permanent damage would likely require Massive Ordance Penetrators, known as GBU-57 bombs. That would mean directly introducing American forces into the conflict.
The problem for the US and Israel is that Fordow was purposely built to withstand attacks, said Kelley.
'Iran's nuclear program is the brainchild of its war with Iraq during the 1980s,' he said. 'Even if Iran's nuclear weapons program ended in 2003,' said Kelley, reiterating the conclusions of the IAEA and US intelligence, 'countries have continued to push Iran around and they've continued reacting.'
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