The GOP's come to Jesus moment on Texas Senate race
A new private GOP poll is showing Republicans facing a growing problem in the Texas Senate race, the third such survey in just a month.
Why it matters: Republicans haven't lost a statewide race in Texas in more than three decades, but party officials concede they may need to spend millions to keep the seat this year.
"The problem is nobody with the necessary gravitas seems to be willing to state the obvious: this is shaping up to be a f***ing disaster," a senior GOP Senate aide told Axios.
Zoom in: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) trails state Attorney General Ken Paxton by 16 percentage points in a new survey conducted by veteran Republican pollster Chris Wilson. A copy was obtained by Axios.
But Paxton trails a generic Democrat by three percentage points in a general election matchup.
The establishment-aligned Cornyn performs far better than Paxton in a general election, leading a Democrat by seven percentage points.
The survey results are similar to recent surveys conducted by the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund super PAC and the American Opportunity Alliance, a network of influential Republican donors.
Between the lines: Paxton was impeached by the state House of Representatives in 2023 on bribery and corruption charges but was later acquitted by the state Senate.
"If the goal is to maintain a GOP Senate majority and maximize Trump's down-ballot coattails in Texas, Paxton's nomination is a strategic liability," Wilson, who has advised Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), said in a memo accompanying the poll.
"If Paxton wins the primary, the GOP is on a path to hand Democrats their best Senate opportunity in a generation," Wilson added.
Yes, but: Cornyn has more than $8 million in the bank between his campaign and super PAC accounts and has yet to begin unloading on Paxton, which Cornyn aides insist will tighten the primary contest.
Cornyn has also assembled a seasoned team of operatives that includes senior Trump political advisers Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio.
The bottom line: "The Cornyn campaign remains confident that once Texas GOP primary voters fully understand Ken Paxton's record of mismanagement, self-dealing and ethical failures, we will win the primary," said Cornyn spokesperson Matt Mackowiak.
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