The Fed's outlook for inflation and jobs shows the bind it's in — plus, Amazon's robotaxi move

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Markets and Fed: Stocks fluctuated between modest gains and losses Wednesday afternoon after the Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations. Investors were also chewing over the central bank's updated economic projections, which are released on a quarterly basis. The central bank now sees median core PCE inflation coming at 3.1% in 2025, up from the 2.8% rate previously forecasted in March. Modest upward revisions to inflation expectations were also seen for 2026 and 2027, though, of course, it's quite difficult to forecast that far into the future. The Fed committee also now sees median unemployment in 2025 coming in at 4.5%, up from the prior 4.4% forecast. Similarly to the inflation outlook, the Fed's 2026 and 2027 unemployment forecasts were revised up slightly. As a result, the Fed now sees real GDP — meaning adjusted for inflation — coming in below prior expectations. 2025 is now expected to see real GDP growth of 1.4%, down from 1.7%. Meanwhile, 2026 growth is expected to come in at 1.6%, down from 1.8%. However, the growth estimate for 2027 was left unchanged at 1.8%. These revisions underscore the bind that the Fed finds itself in during President Donald Trump's tariff war. The Fed's dual mandate is to ensure price stability and low unemployment. When faced with higher inflation, the Fed usually seeks to tame it using rate hikes. When faced with increasing unemployment, the Fed usually turns to rate cuts to stimulate the economy. There's tension now on both sides of that mandate. At his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank is "well positioned to wait" before adjusting policy any further. On tariffs, specifically, Powell said: ""It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer." "Because the economy is still solid, we can take the time to actually see what's going to happen," Powell said. "We'll make smarter and better decisions" if we wait a few months to get more data on tariffs, he said. Crude checkup: Oil prices were mostly flat Wednesday after Trump said Iran wants to negotiate following six days of Israeli airstrikes. "They want to negotiate," Trump told reporters Wednesday morning, less than 24 hours after he had threatened Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. "They even suggested that they come to the White House. That's courageous. It's like not easy for them to do." Stock investors have been closely following the way that oil is reacting to Israel-Iran headlines, given the potential for the conflict in the oil-rich region to disrupt supply and dent global economic growth. Israel's surprise attack on Iran's military nuclear infrastructure Friday led to the initial jump in oil prices. Friday's upswing was the biggest intraday move for the crude futures contract since 2022. Prices have seesawed in subsequent days, but remain trading near five month highs. Driverless news: Autonomous vehicles are back in the spotlight Wednesday. Club name Amazon is ramping up production of its Zoox robotaxis ahead of the launch of public rides in Las Vegas later this year, and Alphabet's Waymo announced that it is looking enter New York City, albeit with a human behind the wheel to start. The news is just the latest indication of how fast the adoption of robotics is playing out — after all, that's more or less what an autonomous vehicle is. For Amazon specifically, it speaks to the opportunity AI presents. We just heard from CEO Andy Jassy on this on Tuesday. In a note published on the company's website, Jassy wrote that in the coming years, "we expect that [artificial intelligence] will reduce our total corporate workforce as we get efficiency gains from using AI extensively across the company." However, reading the tea leaves, we think it pretty clear that AI is going to impact far more than the corporate headquarters. Earlier this month, we learned that the company was looking into AI-powered humanoid robots to make deliveries. In total, analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate that the overall Amazon is looking to automate roughly $200 billion in logistics costs, or about 35% of its online retail revenue. Between humanoid robots and self-driving cars, there is a massive opportunity at play for Amazon to not only open up new revenue streams via a robotaxi service, but also reduce it's massively existing cost structure, boosting profits in the process. Of all the major tech players in the AI race, Amazon may prove to be the greatest beneficiary. Of course, its profit-engine Amazon Web Services is benefiting from software developer demand for cloud resources as AWS offers up multiple large language models for them to leverage. But given its massive logistics network — something the other American tech giants don't really have —it likely has the biggest opportunity of all of them when it comes to margin expansion. Up next: The market will be closed on Thursday in observance of Juneteenth. On Friday, investors will return to a basket of corporate earnings. Accenture , Kroger and Darden Restaurants will all report quarterly results before the opening bell. Updates from supermarket giant Kroger and Olive Garden owner Darden, in particular, could offer fresh insights on the health of the U.S. consumer. On the economic data front, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Yahoo

30 minutes ago

• Yahoo

Middle East tensions put investors on alert, weighing worst-case scenarios

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) -Investors are mulling a host of different market scenarios should the U.S. deepen its involvement in the Middle East conflict, with the potential for ripple effects if energy prices skyrocket. They have honed in on the evolving situation between Israel and Iran, which have exchanged missile strikes, and are closely monitoring whether the U.S. decides to join Israel in its bombing campaign. Potential scenarios could send inflation higher, dampening consumer confidence and lessening the chance of near-term interest rate cuts. This would likely cause an initial selloff in equities and possible safe-haven bid for the dollar. While U.S. crude prices have climbed some 10% over the past week, the S&P 500 has been little changed as of yet, following an initial drop when Israel launched its attacks. However, if attacks were to take out Iranian oil supply, "that's when the market is going to sit up and take notice," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. "If you get disruption to supply of oil product on the global marketplace, that is not reflected in today's WTI price and that is where things get negative," Hogan said. The White House said on Thursday President Donald Trump would decide on U.S. involvement in the conflict in the next two weeks. Analysts at Oxford Economics modeled three scenarios, ranging from a de-escalation in the conflict, a complete shutdown in Iranian production, and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, "each with increasingly large impacts on global oil prices," the firm said in a note. In the most severe case, global oil prices jump to around $130 per barrel, driving U.S. inflation near 6% by the end of this year, Oxford said in the note. "Although the price shock inevitably dampens consumer spending because of the hit to real incomes, the scale of the rise in inflation and concerns about the potential for second-round inflation effects likely ruin any chance of rate cuts in the U.S. this year," Oxford said in the note. OIL IMPACT The biggest market impact from the escalating conflict has been restricted to oil, with oil prices soaring on worries that the Iran-Israel conflict could disrupt supplies. Brent crude futures have risen as much as 18% since June 10, hitting a near 5-month high of $79.04 on Thursday. The accompanying rise in investors' expectations for further near-term volatility in oil prices has outpaced the rise in volatility expectations for other major asset classes, including stocks and bonds. But other asset classes, including stocks, could still feel the knock-on effects of higher oil prices, especially if there is a larger surge in oil prices if the worst market fears of supply disruptions come true, analysts said. "Geopolitical tensions have been mostly ignored by equities, but they are being factored into oil," Citigroup analysts wrote in a note. "To us, the key for equities from here will come from energy commodity pricing," they said. STOCKS UNPERTURBED U.S. stocks have so far weathered rising Middle East tensions with little sign of panic. A more direct U.S. involvement in the conflict could, however, spook markets, investors said. Financial markets may be in for an initial selloff if the U.S. military attacks Iran, with economists warning that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by Trump's tariffs. Still, any pullback in equities might be fleeting, history suggests. During past prominent instances of Middle East tensions coming to a boil, including the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, stocks initially languished but soon recovered to trade higher in the months ahead. On average, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% in the three weeks following the start of conflict, but was 2.3% higher on average two months following the conflict, according to data from Wedbush Securities and CapIQ Pro. DOLLAR WOES An escalation in the conflict could have mixed implications for the U.S. dollar, which has tumbled this year amid worries over diminished U.S. exceptionalism. In the event of U.S. direct engagement in the Iran-Israel War, the dollar could initially benefit from a safety bid, analysts said. "Traders are likely to worry more about the implicit erosion of the terms of trade for Europe, the UK, and Japan, rather than the economic shock to the US, a major oil producer," Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, said in a note. But longer-term, the prospect of US-directed 'nation-building' would probably weaken the dollar, he said. "We recall that after the attacks of 9/11, and running through the decade-long US presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, the USD weakened," Wizman said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Yahoo

38 minutes ago

• Yahoo

Taiwan central bank says US debt rising too fast may impact trust in Treasuries

TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan's central bank governor warned on Saturday that rapidly rising U.S. debt could be "unfavourable" to the outlook for U.S. Treasuries and that U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies have made investors cautious. Taiwan's $593 billion in foreign exchange reserves are more than 80% made up of U.S. Treasury bonds, according to the central bank, which said earlier this month that Treasuries were "sound" and still favoured by investors. It added there were no worries about the dollar's position as the leading international reserve currency. Governor Yang Chin-long, in a speech posted on the central bank's website, said Trump's repeated criticisms of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy have caused concerns about its independence. "In addition, Trump 2.0's trade policy has made investors hesitant about holding U.S. Treasury bonds; Trump's budget, the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act,' may cause U.S. debt to expand too quickly, which is unfavourable to the outlook for U.S. sovereign debt," he said. "All of these have had a significant impact on the international monetary system centred on the U.S. dollar and based on U.S. creditworthiness." Trump's sweeping tax-cut and spending bill is the centerpiece of his domestic agenda. The bill would lead to a larger-than-expected $2.8 trillion increase in the federal deficit over the decade, despite a boost to U.S. economic output, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected on Tuesday. Trump, in his first few weeks in office, also announced sweeping tariffs on a broad swathe of countries and trading partners, including Taiwan, only to pause them for 90 days in April to allow for talks to take place. Yang said Trump had been hoping the tariffs could resolve the U.S. trade deficit. "However, the tariff policy not only fails to solve the structural problems, it will also impact the U.S. economy, and threaten to further affect the outlook for global trade and the economy."

The Hill

42 minutes ago

• The Hill

How Senate Republicans want to change the tax breaks in Trump's big bill

WASHINGTON (AP) — House and Senate Republicans are taking slightly different approaches when it comes to the tax cuts that lawmakers are looking to include in their massive tax and spending cuts bill. Republicans in the two chambers don't agree on the size of a deduction for state and local taxes. And they are at odds on such things as allowing people to use their health savings accounts to help pay for their gym membership, or whether electric vehicle and hybrid owners should have to pay an annual fee. The House passed its version shortly before Memorial Day. Now the Senate is looking to pass its version. While the two bills are similar on the major tax provisions, how they work out their differences in the coming weeks will determine how quickly they can get a final product over the finish line. President Donald Trump is pushing to have the legislation on his desk by July 4th. Here's a look at some of the key differences between the two bills: The child tax credit currently stands at $2,000 per child. The House bill temporarily boosts the child tax credit to $2,500 for the 2025 through 2028 tax years, roughly the length of President Donald Trump's second term. It also indexes the credit amount for inflation beginning in 2027. The Senate bill provides a smaller, initial bump-up to $2,200, but the bump is permanent, with the credit amount indexed for inflation beginning next year. Trump promised on the campaign trail that he would seek to end income taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits. Also, he would give car buyers a new tax break by allowing them to deduct the interest paid on auto loans. The House and Senate bills incorporate those promises with temporary deductions lasting from the 2025 through 2028 tax years, but with some differences. The House bill creates a deduction on tips for those working in jobs that have customarily received tips. The House also provides for a deduction for overtime that's equal to the amount of OT a worker has earned. The Senate bill comes with more restrictions. The deduction for tips is limited to $25,000 per taxpayer and the deduction for overtime is limited to $12,500 per taxpayer. The House and Senate bills both provide a deduction of up to $10,000 for interest paid on loans for vehicles made in the United States. And on Social Security, the bills don't directly touch the program. Instead, they grant a larger tax deduction for Americans age 65 and older. The House sets the deduction at $4,000. The Senate sets it at $6,000. Both chambers include income limits over which the new deductions begin to phase out. The caps on state and local tax deductions, known in Washington as the SALT cap, now stand at $10,000. The House bill, in a bid to win over Republicans from New York, California and New Jersey, lifts the cap to $40,000 per household with incomes of less than $500,000. The credit phases down for households earning more than $500,000. The Senate bill keeps the cap at $10,000. That's a non-starter in the House, but Republicans in the two chambers will look to negotiate a final number over the coming weeks that both sides can accept. The House bill prohibits states from establishing new provider taxes or increasing existing taxes. These are taxes that Medicaid providers, such as hospitals, pay to help states finance their share of Medicaid costs. In turn, the taxes allow states to receive increased federal matching funds while generally holding providers harmless through higher reimbursements that offset the taxes paid. Such taxes now are effectively capped at 6%. The Senate looks to gradually lower that threshold for states that have expanded their Medicaid populations under the Affordable Care Act, or 'Obamacare,' until it reaches 3.5% in 2031, with exceptions for nursing homes and intermediate care facilities. Industry groups have warned that limiting the ability of states to tax providers may lead to some states making significant cuts to their Medicaid programs as they make up for the lost revenue in other ways. The Medicaid provision could be a flashpoint in the coming House and Senate negotiations. Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., was highly critical of the proposed Senate changes. 'This needs a lot of work. It's really concerning and I'm really surprised by it,' he said. 'Rural hospitals are going to be in bad shape.' The House bill would allow companies for five years to fully deduct equipment purchases and domestic research and development expenses. The Senate bill includes no sunset, making the tax breaks permanent, which was a key priority of powerful trade groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Republicans in both chambers are looking to scale back the clean energy tax credits enacted through then-President Joe Biden's climate law. It aimed to boost the nation's transition away from planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions toward renewable energy such as wind and solar power. Under the Senate bill, the tax credits for clean energy and home energy efficiency would still be phased out, but less quickly than under the House bill. Still, advocacy groups fear that the final measure will threaten hundreds of thousands of jobs and drive up household energy costs. The House bill would allow millions of Americans to use their health savings accounts to pay for gym memberships, with a cap of $500 for single taxpayers and $1,000 for joint filers. The Senate bill doesn't include such a provision. The House reinstates a charitable deduction for non-itemizers of $150 per taxpayer. The Senate bill increases that deduction for donations to $1,000 per taxpayer. Republicans in the House bill included a new annual fee of $250 for EV owners and $100 for hybrid owners that would be collected by state motor vehicle departments. The Senate bill excludes the proposed fees. ___