After Pahalgam, what is the counterterrorism grid in Jammu and Kashmir up against?

Two months ago, on April 22, a group of militants gunned down 25 tourists holidaying in the meadows of Pahalgam in South Kashmir. A local man was also killed.
Even by the standards of violence seen in Kashmir's 36-year-old armed insurgency, the targeted killing of tourists was a first. It pushed India and Pakistan to the brink of war.
On May 7, India launched Operation Sindoor and carried out military strikes on alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The four-day conflict eventually came to an end following the purported intervention of the United States.
But the attackers of Pahalgam are still untraced. The National Investigation Agency has taken over the investigation but there has been no major breakthrough in the case.
The Pahalgam attack came at a time when the Centre's grip over the restive region was absolute and militancy-related violence was at its lowest. After New Delhi scrapped Jammu and Kashmir's special status under Article 370 of the Constitution and downsized it from a state to a Union territory, it has ruled the region directly with the security establishment under the central government's exclusive control.
For the counterinsurgency grid in Jammu and Kashmir, the April 22 terror strike has left behind several questions. Scroll spoke to security officials in Kashmir, who mapped the landscape in which they now operate post-Pahalgam and Operation Sindoor. They contended that the Pahalgam attackers had crossed a 'red line'.
'The line between who can be targeted and who cannot has blurred in the eyes of terrorists,' said a senior police officer in Kashmir. 'After Pahalgam, we are working on the assumption that they can go for any soft target.'
In the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack, security forces detained around 2,800 individuals for questioning, most of whom were eventually released. In addition, more than a hundred individuals, with past records of militancy, have been detained under the preventive detention law Jammu and Kashmir Public Safety Act. The security agencies also demolished the homes of the families of around nine active local and Pakistan-based militants to send a message. Yet, success has eluded them.
Security officials told Scroll that they are up against a lack of strong intelligence, the evolving tactics of hardened Pakistan-backed militants in Kashmir – and the possibility of a new front opening up in the skies through drones.
A new militancy
After 2019, the Centre carried out a widespread crackdown on militancy and its support system in Kashmir. As a result, local recruitment to militant ranks drastically went down. According to government officials, there are only seven active militants from Kashmir Valley at the moment – the lowest since militancy broke out in 1989.
However, the number of foreign militants has continued to remain in two digits owing to infiltration from across the border.
Even if few, these militants have made their presence felt in the last six years. 'How does a terrorist show his presence? It's not that a militant will leisurely walk with a gun on a street to show he exists. He needs to attack someone in order to show that they exist,' said a second police officer, not wishing to be identified by name. 'A single militant with a gun can kill 100 people if there's no gun against him.'
Among the many tactics adopted by these militants is choosing what the security officials describe as 'soft targets' – like migrant workers, and members of the minority community. From August 5, 2019, to July 9, 2022, 118 civilians were killed in militancy-related incidents across Jammu and Kashmir, the Minister of State for Home Affairs told Parliament.
Five of the dead were Kashmiri Pandits and 16 belonged to other Hindu or Sikh communities.
Observers see the Pahalgam incident as part of the same continuum of tactics.
'Counter-terrorism is a cat-and-mouse game,' explained retired Lieutenant General Deependra Singh Hooda, former Northern Commander of the Indian Army. 'The terrorists observe the tactics of the security forces and they look for weaklings, soft spots and areas with weak presence of security forces.'
The dip in intelligence
Conventionally, the counter-insurgency policy adopted by the security forces in Jammu and Kashmir involved reliance on quality intelligence, a third police officer explained.
'Once terrorists started using mobile phones, technical intelligence was key to eliminating them,' the officer said. 'Plus, terrorists hiding in populated areas would also lead to human intelligence on them. As a result, it's easier to nail them down and neutralise them,' the officer added.
Over the last few years, the third officer conceded, there has been a considerable impact on the quality of the intelligence primarily as a result of the different tactics adopted by the militants.
'Technology is an evolving spectrum and we have seen terrorists using high-end encrypted communication devices which are difficult to intercept. As a result, the technical inputs have gone dry to an extent,' the officer explained.
Human intelligence, too, has suffered. One of the key strategies adopted by militants post-2019 is that they have largely avoided staying in populated areas. 'The cost of aiding militants has increased manifold because of the government,' the officer said. 'Therefore, anyone who was sheltering militants would find his house seized and himself in jail. While this helped in creating fear and a deterrence among over-ground workers, it also compelled terrorists to stay deep inside jungles. The net result was that human intelligence on them was not much because they were not seeking shelter among the people.'
Besides the change in tactics, the officer added, the terrorists seemed to be well-trained and prepared for jungle warfare, particularly in the Jammu region.
In the last five years, ostensibly well-trained Pakistani militants have carried out multiple precision strikes or ambushes against the security forces in the challenging and dense topography of Jammu hinterland.
Militants from across the border infiltrate into Jammu region via Kathua and Samba districts, which sit on the international border with Pakistan.
Once inside the Indian territory, the militants then venture deep into other districts of the region while navigating a dense terrain and challenging topography. 'The assumption with the Pahalgam attack is also that the terrorists who carried it out came from across the border and had been active in the mountainous areas along the border dividing Kashmir Valley and Jammu region,' explained the first senior police officer.
In most cases, the militants are adept at surviving in deep jungles. 'They rely on dry rations and mostly take food once a day,' said the third police officer. 'They hardly venture into civilian areas and even when they do, they will pick an isolated house, take whatever they need and never come back to that house again.'
That the militants are highly trained is also reflected in the weaponry and type of attacks they have carried out in the last few years. 'These are terrorists who wear body cameras to shoot their action and then use that footage for propaganda…in most of the attacks, the slain soldiers had been shot in the upper parts of their body or head suggesting that these are professionally trained foreign terrorists,' he added. 'In almost every attack, we have seen the use of US-made M4 carbine rifles.'
Significantly, none of these militants tracked down by security forces in the Jammu region has given up without a fight. 'It's possible to get a good amount of information from a militant if he's arrested alive but in this case these terrorists have preferred to fight till death than surrender.'
'Challenge of drones'
During the four-day-long military clashes between India and Pakistan in May, Indian security forces spotted massive drone activity across the length and breadth of Jammu and Kashmir. While these drones were not able to create any significant damage, the fact that Pakistani drones could land up in the heart of Srinagar city was not lost on anyone.
The security establishment has been aware of this aspect of warfare for some years now.
In 2020, then Director General of Jammu and Kashmir Police, Dilbag Singh, had pointed out a new tactic adopted by the militants across the border.
'Pakistan has been trying to send arms and ammunition to militants through drones. We have detected several such incidents in the past," Singh told reporters in Srinagar. Weapons had been delivered via unmanned aerial vehicles, Singh added, in border areas of Jammu and Kashmir including Jammu's Kathua and Rajouri and along the line of control in Kupwara in North Kashmir.
Less than a year later in June 2021, Indian Air Force's Jammu station was hit by two improvised explosive devices that had been dropped by low-flying drones. While there was no significant damage, this was something new.
Since the early 2000s, drones have increasingly become part of modern warfare with the United States using UAVs to hit targets in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan. Prior to this groups like Islamic State, Al Qaeda, Hezbollah and Houthis have used drones as a part of their military arsenal.
However, the 2021 attack was arguably the first time drones had entered the landscape of militancy in Jammu and Kashmir.
After Operation Sindoor, the threat of drones being used for combative use has become more real than ever – and it is one that the Jammu and Kashmir's security establishment is not taking lightly. 'Not only the armies but even terrorists have used drones in many regions of the globe and this is not the first time we have anticipated such a thing,' the first senior police officer added. 'Having seen what Pakistan tried to do during the aftermath of Operation Sindoor, we cannot ignore the possibility of terrorists also using drones for their actions.'
On June 16, Jammu and Kashmir union territory administration declared all the routes leading to the Amarnath holy cave as a 'no flying zone'. As per the orders, no one is allowed to use 'any kind of aviation platforms' including drones and balloons during the duration of the yatra that begins from July 1 and goes on till August 10. According to the administration, the decision was taken on the 'advice' of the Ministry of Home Affairs.
Retired Lieutenant General Hooda, who was the General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Indian army's Northern Command during the 2016 'surgical strike' in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, said the concern of the security establishment in Jammu and Kashmir regarding drones is rightly placed. 'After seeing how drone technology has been used in Ukraine, I anticipate that for not just the Pakistani military but even the non-state actors, the use of drones is a feasibility they will adopt.'
Given their readiness of use, low cost and capacity to go unnoticed, Hooda added, the security establishment has to be proactive. 'Drones are easy to fly and very difficult to protect against. They are so small that one often doesn't even notice how suddenly they appear. We have already seen an attack on the Jammu airbase,' Hooda remarked, referring to the June 2021 attack on Jammu station of the Indian Air Force. 'So now, when it comes to security force establishments, sensitive areas, and sensitive targets, we have to be extremely concerned and careful.'

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