Thunder vs. Pacers Predictions, Picks: Back OKC To Start Fast In Game 7
Game 7. Two of the best words in sports.
This will be especially true when the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder take the court on Sunday for the final game of the 2025 NBA Finals.
The Pacers dominated Game 6, tied the series and then forced a Game 7.
OKC now has the opportunity to bounce back from a poor performance. But the Thunder will need guys to step up.
After the season-saving Game 6 win for Indiana, both teams have a chance to clinch their first championship on Sunday.
With that in mind, I see four wagers that have value right now.
Let's dive into it.
Thunder first quarter
My favorite wager to make in the postseason is to take a team coming off a loss to cover the first quarter in the next game when they are playing at home.
It's an even better wager with a team like Oklahoma City, which is fantastic at home.
The Thunder have won and covered the first quarter in all three home games of this series. They also won and covered four of the first six quarters following a loss. This last loss was gnarly. It marked the worst offensive performance by the Thunder this season.
They shot just 26% from three-point range, with most of their makes coming during garbage time. They had 21 turnovers and were out-rebounded.
Given that poor performance, it's common for teams to play better in their next game at home. I expect the Thunder to start fast on Sunday night.
PICK: Thunder (-3.5) first quarter
My player props for Game 7 are all zigzag props. The theory involves betting the opposite side of a player prop following either an awful night or one that's been too good.
For example, in Game 6, Aaron Wiggins was the perfect fade opportunity. At home in Game 5, he scored 14 points, but in Game 6, he went Under 5.5 points.
Keeping this in mind, here are my player prop picks for Game 7.
Alex Caruso Over 8.5 Points
Caruso played 22 minutes in Game 6 and didn't score a single point.
He only attempted two shots, the least number of shots he's taken in a game since logging 12 minutes in Game 1 against the Grizzlies. Caruso has scored just two points in the last two games while playing 51 minutes. There have been instances this postseason where he has fewer points than usual in two straight games, only to follow that up by scoring over 8.5 points.
He scored 10 points in Game 4 against the Nuggets after just nine in the previous two games and reached 10 points against the Wolves in Game 4 after only scoring 12 in the last two games.
Caruso might see more playing time as well. The Thunder have been tweaking their lineups, and he's part of the most optimal lineup. He will get the chance to surpass 8.5 points.
PICK: Alex Caruso Over 8.5 points
Jalen Williams Over 9.5 rebounds and assists
Like the rest of his team, Jalen Williams had an off night in Game 6, but he had been super reliable in the previous five games of this series.
He's recorded at least 10 rebounds and assists in four of those five games. Looking back to the prior two series, he's exceeded 9.5 rebounds and assists in six of the last eight games. Further, he's managed at least 10 rebounds and assists in four of the six games following a Thunder loss.
Williams has taken more control of the Thunder's offense in recent games, especially as the Pacers keep hounding SGA in the backcourt. Following a game where the Thunder didn't shoot well or pass much, I expect Williams to generate more assists.
He's often around the basket due to who he's guarding, so rebounds should be more within his reach. I like him Over here.
PICK: Jalen Williams Over 9.5 rebounds and assists
Obi Toppin Under 10.5 points
It's tough to fade someone who's hot, but this is the spot to do it.
Toppin has scored 17, 12 and 20 points in his last three games — which is the most points he's scored in a three-game stretch this postseason. He's been a bright spot for the Pacers at the center position, especially with Myles Turner struggling the last three games.
Can Toppin do it again? Four straight games, plus a Game 7 on the road? These are not the games where role players typically shine.
PICK: Obi Toppin Under 10.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @ GeoffSchwartz .
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