Farm ministry says farmers 'misunderstand' rice statistics

Rice farmers who say government data on yields is overstated actually misunderstand the rice crop situation index, the agriculture ministry said after announcing plans to cease publishing it — a declaration some experts say lacks accountability.
'The rice crop situation index isn't a representation of how big or how small the harvest is, but a lot of farmers think it is,' farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi said in a regular news conference Tuesday.
The rice crop situation index — or the ratio of rice yield per 10 ares (1,000 square meters) to the average yield per 10 ares — shows the condition of the crop. For rice produced in 2024, for example, the crop situation index was in the same range as previous year's at 101, or 1% more rice than the average year, according to the agriculture ministry.
Farmers misunderstand the index, and so instead of using it, we ask them to look at our studies on harvest levels when they want to make comparisons with the previous year, Koizumi said.
His remarks came after he announced plans on Monday to cease publishing the ministry's rice crop situation index, which has been used for almost seven decades, as farmers and retailers voiced concerns that government data does not reflect reality.
The ministry did not express interest in scrapping the rice crop situation index in an admission of what farmers say is faulty data, but rather explained that it contradicted farmers' testimonies regarding rice yields because the sampling numbers are outdated — trends from the past three decades, during which cold weather resulted in smaller yields, made the data inappropriate for comparison with current crops.
Ministry officials not taking responsibility for the 'inaccurate' data and, instead, saying farmers are simply misunderstanding the index did not sit well with experts.
'The ministry is saying it's the farmers' fault — that they just got confused. But all that argument does is pass the buck,' said University of Tokyo professor Nobuhiro Suzuki, who specializes in agricultural economics.
Suzuki said almost every rice farmer he has visited across Japan estimated that their rice paddies had a rice crop index of 90, or 10% less than the average yield.
'The truth is that the ministry doesn't know the accurate amount of harvest. The ministry's yield (data) was larger than what farmers were experiencing first-hand,' Suzuki said.
Since replacing his predecessor, who stepped down over a gaffe related to rice four weeks ago, Koizumi has repeatedly said rice prices had surged since last summer due to a sharp drop in shipments made to JA and other distributors despite higher production.
Farmers produced 6.79 million tons of rice last year, up 180,000 tons from the previous year, according to the farm ministry. In 2025, they are projected to yield 7.19 million tons of rice, which would make the harvest 400,000 tons higher compared with last year's and make it the largest in five years, the ministry said.
Koizumi says that while there is a 'shortage-like feeling,' Japan isn't short on rice — an unconvincing explanation for some.
'The government is saying that JA is withholding the rice and jacking up prices, but that's all lies. Rice prices skyrocketed not because the supply chain is in disarray. The supply chain is in disarray because there isn't enough rice,' said Suzuki.
The average price of a 5-kilogram bag at supermarkets in the week through June 8 was ¥4,176, down ¥48 from the previous week — the third consecutive weekly decline, according to agriculture ministry data released Monday.
That figure didn't include data from stockpiled rice sold through no-bid contracts, which went for ¥2,119 per bag and made up over 50% of sales at supermarkets and convenience stores.

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