Stephen Foster 2025 Betting Preview: Showdown At Churchill Downs
Brian Hernandez Jr. rides Mystik Dan, right, to the finish line to win the 150th running of the ... More Kentucky Derby horse race at Churchill Downs Saturday, May 4, 2024, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
Bettors are in for a treat Saturday as a loaded field of top older horses lines up for the 44th running of the $1 million Stephen Foster Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs. The race, a "Win and You're In" for the Breeders' Cup Classic, features a compelling rematch between Kentucky Derby 150 winner Mystik Dan and Breeders' Cup Classic champ Sierra Leone, along with Dubai World Cup winner Hit Show, rising star Mindframe, and several other stakes-caliber contenders.
Run at 1 1/8 miles, the Stephen Foster is the centerpiece of a 12-race card that also includes five other stakes, making it one of the most attractive wagering days of the Churchill Downs Spring Meet. First post is 12:45 p.m. ET, with the Foster set for 6:03 p.m. as Race 11.
Let's break down the contenders with a focus on value, pace setup, and betting angles:
Sierra Leone (Post 4 – Flavien Prat, Chad Brown)
The likely favorite, Sierra Leone returns for his first start since dominating the Breeders' Cup Classic last fall. He's trained steadily at Brown's New York base and ships in fresh. He owns a win over 1 1/8 miles and is proven against top company. But bettors should weigh his 8-month layoff and potential lack of early speed, especially in a race that could favor forwardly placed runners.
Mystik Dan (Post 5 – Brian Hernandez Jr., Kenny McPeek)
The Derby winner offers strong horse-for-course appeal with three wins at Churchill and enters off a sharp victory in the Blame Stakes (G3) over this track. He's razor sharp and should sit a perfect stalking trip. If the price floats above 4-1, he may be the best value play in the race.
Mindframe (Post 2 – Irad Ortiz Jr., Todd Pletcher)
Mindframe is the wildcard. He's 4-for-6 lifetime and enters off a victory in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) sprinting. The key question: can he carry his speed around two turns? Pletcher has stretched sprinters out successfully before, and Ortiz sticks. He'll be near the pace early and could control things if no one pressures him.
Hit Show (Post 6 – Florent Geroux, Brad Cox)
Fresh off a career-defining win in the $12 million Dubai World Cup, Hit Show looms as the class of the field. But he's been off since April and will be spotting fitness to sharper foes. Trainer Brad Cox wins 24% off layoffs and this 5-year-old can certainly win—but he may be an underlay given the circumstances.
First Mission (Post 1 – Luis Saez, Brad Cox)
A sneaky contender, First Mission exits a win in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and draws the rail. He'll need to use some early speed to avoid getting shuffled back, but Saez is aggressive and Churchill has been kind to inside speed horses. He's capable of upsetting the apple cart with the right trip.
Skippylongstocking (Post 3 – Jose Ortiz, Saffie Joseph Jr.)
A battle-tested 6-year-old with back-class, 'Skippy' exits wins in the Gold Cup (G2) and Challenger (G3). He was third in this race last year and thrives at this distance. If the pace gets hot up front, he'll be one to watch flying late at a price.
Ashcroft (Post 7 – Julien Leparoux, D. Wayne Lukas)
The longest shot in the field, Ashcroft steps way up in class and looks overmatched on paper. He's more of a pace factor than a win candidate.
With a Breeders' Cup Classic berth on the line and major betting value throughout the field, the 2025 Stephen Foster shapes up as a can't-miss race for fans and horseplayers alike. You can get the picks and plays over at Racingdudes.com.
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