Poll claims fly as UDF, LDF battle it out
Kozhikode: A day after the closely-watched and politically-significant Nilambur bypoll, UDF and LDF camps pored over internal booth-level estimates collected from the field and concluded that the outcome would be a favourable one.
While UDF reviewed its estimates and claimed that the front would secure a huge majority, LDF came out with a cautious estimate expecting a narrow victory margin.
UDF claimed it would win by a big margin of around 10,000 votes. It expects a lead of over 4,000 votes in Vazhikkadavu, nearly the same margin in Moothedam, 1,500 votes in Edakkara and 1,000 votes each in Nilambur municipality and Pothukallu. UDF also expects small leads in Chungathara and Karulayi.
On the other hand, LDF's internal feedback showed a tighter contest, projecting a narrow win margin of around 1,600 votes. Left is counting on leads in Amarambalam, Pothukallu, Nilambur municipality and Karulayi to offset UDF's expected lead of 1,500 votes in Vazhikkadavu and other narrow leads in Moothedam and Edakkara, where UDF has historically held a strong political base. LDF is also relying on internal differences and factionalism within the Congress to strengthen its position.
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What makes the race even more complex is independent candidate PV Anvar, whose resignation triggered the bypoll. Early projections from both camps estimated his vote share at 10,000 votes, but LDF sources now believe Anvar could secure well beyond that number, mainly by drawing support from UDF voters. The BJP is expected to get around 7,000 votes, while SDPI is likely to garner around 2,500 votes.
For LDF and UDF, the stakes are high.
Winning this bypoll will boost morale and set the tone for the upcoming local body elections and the 2026 assembly polls.
Echoing UDF's estimates, candidate Aryadan Shoukath said he would win the polls with an 'A Plus grade' and secure leads in all panchayats as well as Nilambur municipality. He added that the front had gained support even from non-UDF voters and predicted a historic majority for UDF on Monday.
LDF candidate M Swaraj said LDF expects a strong win in the constituency, noting that there was no anti-incumbency sentiment against the state govt there.
IUML national general secretary PK Kunhalikutty said the UDF camp is confident of a comfortable win. He added that IUML has consistently worked with full commitment to secure victory for the UDF candidate. Kunhalikutty dismissed concerns that IUML votes might have shifted to Anvar, saying that even in tougher situations, IUML cadres have never taken such a stand.
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