Trump's trade war to weigh on markets again next week as investors struggle to move on
President Donald Trump's latest tariff threat again highlighted the challenge for investors eager to move on from a global trade war that can reassert itself at any moment. Stocks dropped Friday, after Trump in a Truth Social post said he would slap a 50% tariff on the European Union starting June 1, while separately warning Apple that it would have to start paying a 25% levy on iPhones not made in the U.S. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled as much as 505 points, or 1.2%, before bouncing back. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were also lower on the day. The tariff rollercoaster is going to make investors lose their appetite for buying dips because every time the market rebounds, they get kicked in the teeth. President at ClientFirst Strategy Mitchell Goldberg Some investors are finding Trump's threats hard to take seriously, seeing them as a negotiating tactic for a president unhappy with the lack of progress made on trade talks with the EU — even as the latter was the U.S.'s largest trading partner by imports in 2024. "This reaction is probably not going to be as bad as the post-'liberation day' reaction, just because the market now kind of has as part of its assumption the idea that Trump will end up caving," said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. "So, that's kind of part of the playbook at this point." Still, Trump's warning is a reminder that the overarching threat of tariffs, which investors had mostly left on the backburner, will continue to be an issue for the stock market, possibly for the duration of Trump's presidency. Tom Graff, chief investment officer at Facet Wealth, said Trump's instincts to "take a maximalist approach ... ratchets up the risk of a bad outcome." Since the April 7 intraday lows, the S & P 500 has soared more than 20%. On Friday, however, the broader index was headed for a weekly pullback of more than 2%, hurt by the latest trade headlines. Earlier in the week, U.S. deficit concerns drove a spike higher in bond yields that also added pressure to equities. .SPX 5D mountain SPX 5-day chart There are other complications. Horizon Investments' Ladner, who does not expect that stocks will retest the April lows, worries that negotiations with the EU will take longer than investors are currently anticipating. He cited Trump's long antipathy toward the region. Trump posted Friday that the EU was "formed for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the United States on TRADE." "I don't think he's gonna be as inclined to cave on the European thing that he was on the China situation, just because of his sort of personal feelings," Ladner said. "And we know that Trump shoots from the hip, and his personal feelings and instincts have a lot to do with his decision making process." "There is some chance the Trump will cave, but, you know, it probably is going to take longer than the China deal did to get some sort of resolution on this," Ladner continued. What's more, there's also the impact of Trump's repeated threats on weary investors who have repeatedly bought the dip throughout the tariff market chaos only to suffer through drops tied to the latest news on trade. "The tariff rollercoaster is going to make investors lose their appetite for buying dips because every time the market rebounds, they get kicked in the teeth," wrote Mitchell Goldberg, president at ClientFirst Strategy. Nvidia Nvidia is set to report earnings Wednesday after the bell. Investors are hoping that strong results and a hopeful outlook from the artificial intelligence darling could boost the recent outperformance in tech. Nvidia remains in negative territory for 2025 has rallied 20% this month. A stellar report could add to those gains, but any sign that the Jensen Huang-helmed company is struggling to deliver on its GPUs could dent investor confidence. "Nvidia, and everything surrounding Nvidia: I believe that these stocks can are the really the only ones that have that potential growth to really break us out of this sort of place where we have been, which is sort of struggling to get back to where we were, let's say, last November," said Mark Malek, CIO at Siebert Financial. Strong earnings from Nvidia would also come at an opportune time for the stock market, which has struggled over this week because of higher bond yields. On Friday, the major averages were headed for a losing week, with all three major averages lower by nearly 2%. — CNBC's Michelle Fox and Fred Imbert contributed to this report. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, May 26 NYSE closed for Memorial Day holiday. Tuesday, May 27 8:30 a.m. Durable Orders preliminary (April) 9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (March) 9:00 a.m. S & P/Case-Shiller comp.20 HPI (March) 10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (May) 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index (May) Earnings: AutoZone Wednesday, May 28 10:00 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (May) 2:00 pm. FOMC Minutes Earnings: Nvidia , HP , Synopsys , Agilent Technologies , Salesforce Thursday, May 29 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (05/17) 8:30 a.m. GDP second preliminary (Q1) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (05/24) 10 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (April) Earnings: Costco Wholesale , Ulta Beauty , Dell Technologies , NetApp , Hormel Foods Friday, May 30 8:30 a.m. Core PCE Deflator (April) 8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (April) 8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (April) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (April) 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (April) 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (April) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (May)
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