Trump tried to belittle India, but his Iran gamble has handed Modi unexpected diplomatic space
Currently, US President Donald Trump is repeatedly, relentlessly, and quite mindlessly hurting India's prestige and position vis-à-vis Pakistan. He has, more than a dozen times, crudely tried to grab credit for the ceasefire deal between India and Pakistan — a deal he never made.
India now surprisingly finds itself in a position with a bit of diplomatic space after the early morning strikes by US warplanes on three of Iran's nuclear sites — Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, where uranium enrichment facilities are buried nearly 80 meters beneath a mountain.
There is a Gujarati proverb that goes: Ghee gira to khichdi mein . Loosely translated, it means that the minor loss of a valuable thing can sometimes accidentally benefit a larger cause.
To be charitable to Trump, at best the US was one of the active parties who wanted a quick end to Operation Sindoor.
Now, in the wake of the mother of all strikes against Iran, even the harshest critics of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Foreign Minister S Jaishankar might begin to understand why Trump was on a spree of praising Pakistan and belittling India's mature diplomatic stance. It wasn't a collapse of Indian diplomacy. It was the US's geostrategic dependency on Pakistan, which shares a border with America's staunch enemy, Iran.
PM Modi has faced severe criticism — even from within his core support base — over Trump's out-of-control diatribes and the seemingly worsening India-US relationship. But now, unfolding events validate Modi's low-key approach since 10 May.
Jaishankar has said many times: 'In cricket match, every ball of all overs can't be played to score runs. But even then, a talented batsman can score a century and win the match.'
Also read: Iran's brutal regime is facing a reckoning. Consequences of US attack will go beyond Tehran
Iran strike opens India's options
Many believed Trump was hurting India due to a cryptocurrency-linked multimillion-dollar private deal with Pakistan. But the pressure on him was bigger.
America's strategic interests are tied to the future of West Asia. And Pakistan was an important cog in the American machinery built to crush Iran — a highly intelligent Islamic regional power with nuclear ambitions.
In retrospect, India has managed to stay at a safe distance from what may be one of the most consequential wars since World War II. Trump, ironically, made that easier by distancing India from the American position.
His anti-India rhetoric will help New Delhi avoid being tarred by association in the attack against Iran — a country with civilisational ties to India. Isfahan, one of the bombed regions, and Varanasi are considered among the oldest cities on the planet.
Iran may not have actively supported India on many issues, but it has never acted against Indian interests. India and Iran have long-standing gas deals, steady trade relations, and people-to-people connections.
On the other hand, Trump's 'strong embrace' of Pakistan may prove to be the kiss of death for Field Marshal Asim Munir.
It's now proven that Pakistan succumbed to US pressure and allowed the use of the Quetta airbase in Balochistan for American refuelling operations. The world can now see that Trump extracted far more from Munir in exchange for a photo-op lunch at the White House.
Also read: Modi's 'no' to Trump isn't about peace or Pakistan. It's narrative warfare
Pakistan trades bases for favour
Remember, this war is not a sectarian Muslim conflict like the Iran-Iraq war, nor a regional Shia-Sunni confrontation. One cannot rush to call it a 'clash of civilisations' yet — but it's certainly not a narrow, standalone mission like the US operation to kill Osama bin Laden.
There's hardly any doubt that Trump represents the politics of White Christian supremacy. When Trump's America attacks Iran, it's not merely attacking a Shia Muslim nation.
That's precisely why Pakistan's decision to succumb and work so decisively and actively with the US against a fellow Islamic country will hurt Munir and his cronies.
This explains PM Modi's first tweet after the American bombing of Iran's nuclear sites. He mentioned his conversation with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, saying he expressed 'deep concern at the recent escalations' and reiterated that 'immediate de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy [are] the way forward.'
This stance shifts the long-term narrative shaped by Operation Sindoor, and challenges everything Trump said and did to hyphenate India and Pakistan.
Pakistan's recent letter to the Nobel Peace Prize committee nominating Trump for his supposed 'diplomatic intervention' in the India-Pakistan conflict will now haunt Islamabad.
That move now seems like a poor joke, especially compared to Pakistan's involvement in the unfolding US-Israel war against Iran. Munir's actions will have major repercussions domestically within Pakistan as well.
Also read: Trump's seduction of Asim Munir won't get him cheap labour to uphold American Peace
War could hit Indian economy
Meanwhile, the ongoing crisis will have several serious effects on India, particularly on its economy.
According to a senior source in the Modi government: 'Our calculations will be based on how Iran is likely to react.'
The US has around 19 military installations in and around West Asia. If Iran retaliates against any of them, the trajectory of this war will drastically change.
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, posted on X that the US strikes 'will have everlasting consequences.' He has said that UN member states 'must be alarmed over this extremely dangerous, lawless and criminal behaviour.'
India will feel the impact of any Iranian retaliation. The Gulf region, home to nearly 10 million Indian workers, residents, and businesses, is already on edge.
There will be immediate effects on oil and gas prices. Saudi Arabia and other producers will also use this situation to advance their commercial interests.
One of the deeper economic impacts will come from the likely closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. India receives two-thirds of its oil and half of its gas through the Strait of Hormuz.
Any disruption there will drive up fuel prices in India's domestic market and affect GDP growth. Indian policymakers are closely watching the chronology of recent events.
Also read: Why Fordow, Natanz & Isfahan facilities struck by US are critical to Iran's nuclear ambitions
Israel tightens regional grip
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shocked the world with how rapidly he regained control in the region. On 7 October 2023, about 3,000 Hamas members launched a surprise attack on unprepared Israeli civilians, killing over 1,200 people. Netanyahu was initially on the back foot.
In retaliation, Israel dismantled Hamas leadership, brought Gaza under full control, and even blocked shipments of dates during Ramadan, claiming the seeds could be used against Israeli forces.
From behind the scenes, Israel ensured the fall of Hafez Assad regime in Syria. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis were partly attacked by the US.
But nothing gave Netanyahu more control over the region than the US-led attack on Iran. According to regional experts, Israel completed 70–80 per cent of the job in the ten days before, and the US entered on Sunday to finish the rest.
The Indian government sees this chronology as a game-changer.
India's assessment is that Iran is unlikely to accept defeat quietly. At this moment, the safety of Indians in the Gulf region and the economic impact of the war are New Delhi's top priorities.
A serious challenge now lies ahead for India, as America enters a war unfolding in a region uncomfortably close to the Indian subcontinent.
Sheela Bhatt is a Delhi-based senior journalist. She tweets @sheela2010. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)
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