Geopolitical fears ease as investors turn to gold, defense for stability
Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global, and Patrick Armstrong, CIO of Plurimi Wealth, say markets are looking past Iran-Israel tensions. Defense, gold, and inflation-protected bonds stand out.
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Yahoo
42 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Oil Market Get Fresh Injection of Uncertainty After US Strikes Iran
(Bloomberg) -- US strikes on Iran over the weekend have added to risks for global oil supply, which has so far been unaffected by some of the most extreme military actions in the Middle East in years. Bezos Wedding Draws Protests, Soul-Searching Over Tourism in Venice One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Brent crude jumped early on Monday to trade above $80 a barrel for the first time since mid-January after US President Donald Trump said air attacks had 'obliterated' Iran's three main nuclear sites. Prices then pared much of that gain, as the vital Strait of Hormuz remained open to tankers. Analysts are now trying to weigh the increased geopolitical risk against previous fears that strong production and a lukewarm global economy could result in a supply glut. Here's what oil watchers are saying: Rapidan Energy Group Iran will likely be very cautious about disrupting Hormuz, the narrow passage separating Iran and the Arabian peninsula through which about 25% of the world's oil and 20% of global liquefied natural gas must pass, said Bob McNally, president and founder of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House energy official. 'Traders are holding their breath, waiting to see if Israel or Iran expand this conflict beyond military and political targets into traded energy,' McNally said on Bloomberg Television. 'So far, no one has pulled that trigger. And if they don't, I can see the price reversing.' Kpler Iran has other options for retaliation, including using its regional proxies to disrupt global trade flows more indirectly, according to Kpler Ltd. senior crude analyst Muyu Xu . That's what happened after Israel's invasion of the Gaza strip in 2023, when Houthi rebels in Yemen began attacking ships in the Red Sea. A direct move to disrupt Middle East oil flows would have severe consequences for prices, she said. 'If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, even for one day, oil can temporarily hit $120 or even $150 a barrel,' she said. 'And if it attacks major oil production or export facilities in neighboring countries, it may drive up prices higher for longer.' Vanda Insights Oil markets have been incredibly choppy since Israel began strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure earlier this month, with some trading sessions beginning with price spikes before they retreated into daily losses. Traders need to look past the surprise of the news and analyze whether the underlying risks have actually changed, said Vandana Hari, founder of consultancy Vanda Insights. 'Beyond the knee-jerk reaction to the shock US attacks, the market needs to assess if the risk of the worst-case supply disruption scenarios has risen,' Hari said. 'I don't see a material increase.' Onyx Commodities Long-time oil market hand Harry Tchilinguirian said he's particularly watching whether Iran risks pulling the US deeper into the conflict by responding with strikes on American military assets or energy infrastructure in the region, which could drive prices higher. If the response is confined to Israel, that could reduce fears of escalation. 'Basically, the ball is now in Iran's court to respond, and while it says all options are on the table, some are more consequential than others,' said Tchilinguirian, head of oil research and analytics for Onyx Commodities Ltd. Sparta Commodities It's not just crude oil that faces risk. The Strait of Hormuz is also a major chokepoint for LNG and refined products including diesel and jet fuel. Some fuel markets may see the biggest price responses to the latest development, said June Goh, senior oil market analyst with Sparta Commodities. Diesel and jet fuel supply chains are most exposed to the Middle East as oil products from the Arab Gulf flow through Hormuz to feed the main demand hub in Europe, Goh said. 'The east-west spread for middle distillates is expected to widen further to incentivize barrels to flow into Western markets.' Saxo Bank Even without a full-scale disruption, the threat of Iranian action in the strait could hamper shipments, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank A/S. Such delays could lead to short-term price spikes, but gains would be capped after countries released strategic reserves, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates redirected some crude to facilities outside Hormuz. 'The current geopolitical risk premium — now exceeding $10 a barrel — cannot be sustained for long without a tangible supply disruption,' Hansen said. 'Absent that, price gains may struggle to hold.' RBC Capital Markets Iran has options for retaliation beyond attempting to fully shut the strait, such as strikes on tankers or the port of Fujairah in the UAE, or exerting pressure on remaining allied groups in Iraq and Yemen to assist, said RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts including Helima Croft. It may take days or even weeks to comprehend the nation's full response. 'Above all, we would caution against the knee-jerk 'the worst is behind us' hot take at this stage,' Croft said. 'President Trump may indeed have successfully executed an 'escalate to de-escalate' move, but a wider expansion cannot still be ruled out at this juncture.' (Updates with comments from Saxo and RBC. A previous version was corrected to remove a reference to Indian product flows.) Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Airlines consider canceling Middle East flights after US strikes
STORY: :: File Airlines around the world on Monday were deciding how long to pause flights to the Middle East after the U.S. struck Iran over the weekend. Singapore Airlines, Air France-KLM, and British Airways have all cancelled flights to destinations such as Dubai, Riyadh, and Doha. :: February, 2022 During the Russia-Ukraine war, both of those countries' airspaces were closed to most international flights. This forced airlines to find new routes between Europe and Asia, making Middle East routes key for airlines. :: But now, data from flight tracking website FlightRadar24 shows that early Monday, hardly any planes were flying over Iran, Iraq, Syria, or Israel. Missile and drone attacks in more conflict areas are making flying riskier. :: June 21, 2025 Safe Airspace, a group that monitors flight risks, warned Sunday that the weekend U.S. strikes on Iran could increase risks for American carriers in the region. :: File Ahead of the strikes, American Airlines suspended flights to Qatar, while United Airlines did the same for Dubai. However, Israel is increasing flights to help stranded travelers at home and abroad. The country's Airports Authority says 24 rescue flights will arrive Monday, each limited to 50 passengers. Israeli airline El Al said on Sunday that it got about 25,000 requests to leave Israel in one day. Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
an hour ago
- Bloomberg
Iran Vows Retaliation for US Strikes, Trump Threatens More Attacks
Bloomberg Daybreak Europe is your essential morning viewing to stay ahead. Live from London, we set the agenda for your day, catching you up with overnight markets news from the US and Asia. And we'll tell you what matters for investors in Europe, giving you insight before trading begins. On today's show, Iran said it reserves all options to respond to US strikes on its nuclear sites. Donald Trump threatened greater attacks unless Tehran makes peace. In markets, oil advanced and a Bloomberg gauge of the greenback climbed as traders awaited the Iranian government response. Today's Guests: Jamil Jaffer, former White House counsel to President George W. Bush Ehud Olmert, former Israeli Prime Minister Aneeka Gupta, director of macroeconomic research at Wisdomtree (Source: Bloomberg)
