Trump's indecision on Iran due to primal fear about 'another Libya'
President Trump gave Iran a two-week grace period to negotiate a nuclear pact over fears of repeating the chaos that took place in Libya and the devastating aftermath of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Trump is confident he can still secure a diplomatic outcome amid the escalating war between Israel and Iran, despite threats this week that he would drag the US into the another crisis in the Middle East.
'He'd rather have a deal,' an insider told The New York Post about Trump's thinking.
Trump fears causing 'another Libya,' referring to the North African nation's descent into anarchy and chaos after longtime dictator Gaddafi was toppled in 2011 during the Obama administration.
At the time, the West hoped Gaddafi's death would pave the way for democracy, but instead the region was overrun with warlords and religious extremists.
The deaths of a US Ambassador and several Americans at the embassy in Benghazi plagued former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for years.
'There are two reasons Trump talks about Libya: the first is the chaos after what we did to Gaddafi,' a source told the Post. 'The second is the Libya intervention made it more difficult to negotiate deals with countries like North Korea and Iran.'
Experts warned that any effort to overthrow the Iranian regime, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would further destabilize the region and risks fueling radicalization.
Trump has also been an outspoken critic of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, calling it 'the single worst decision ever made.'
'Here we are, like the dummies of the world, because we had bad politicians running our country for a long time,' Trump said in 2018, comparing it to 'throwing a big fat brick into a hornet's nest.'
The Iraq war was launched under President George W Bush under the pretext that Saddam Hussein was harboring weapons of mass destruction. It resulted in years of sectarian bloodbath and the deaths of 4,500 US service members.
Trump insiders also said that the protracted US occupation of Afghanistan also weighed heavily on his mind.
The invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 was intended to destroy the Taliban and Al-Qaeda but morphed into a nation building exercise that amounted to one of America's longest and most expensive wars.
Trump's decision to show restraint for at least two weeks come despite Iran ramping up strikes and boasting that its nuclear material survived Israel's repeated bombing.
The Iranian regime on Thursday was accused of launching at least one cluster bomb at civilian targets, which would be an extraordinary departure from global ethical expectations during war.
More than 100 nations signed an agreement in 2008 against the use of cluster munitions, which burst and scatter numerous smaller bombs and are near impossible to accurately detonate.
Now, Trump has repeated Israel's allegations that Iran is also close to developing nuclear weapons, despite assurances from his own national intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard just three months ago that that was not the case.
'I don't care what she said,' Trump hit back. 'I think they were very close to having one.'
His full-throated criticism of Iran this week has sparked a MAGA civil war as close and loyal soldiers of the MAGA movement, including Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor-Greene, express dissatisfaction at his apparent shift away from his 'America First' mindset.
Israel has been launching missiles at Iran in an attempt to cripple its nuclear capabilities since last Friday, and Trump has publicly expressed that he is willing to wade into the war to offer US military strength.
But he stepped back from the brink last night as Britain prepared to take part in peace talks with Iran when he vowed to give Tehran two weeks to strike a deal with the West.
'Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,' White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, quoting the president.
In the previous 48 hours, the US President had demanded Iran's 'unconditional surrender' and threatened air strikes 'in days.'
Negotiations will start today with Britain, France and Germany due to sit down with Iran's foreign minister in Geneva.
And Iran-backed militias throughout the Middle East have vowed to attack US military bases in the region should the US launch a strike on Iran.
'We reaffirm, with even greater clarity, that should the United States enter into this war, the deranged (US President Donald) Trump shall forfeit all the trillions he dreams of seizing from this region,' Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah said.
'Undoubtedly, American bases throughout the region will become akin to duck-hunting grounds,' the statement added.
Meanwhile, the leader of Hezbollah, a pro-Iran Lebanese militant group, said it would 'act as we see fit' in response to the ongoing war between its main backer Iran and Israel.
Simultaneously, Iran boasted that all its nuclear material had been moved to 'a safe place' before Israeli missiles struck its nuclear sites.
' Israel hit Natanz, Isfahan, Khandab, and Arak, but they were already evacuated,' Iranian commander Mohsen Rezaei said on Thursday.
'All the materials have been moved to a safe place,' he added.
The dramatic developments came on another day of horror as an Iranian ballistic missile struck Soroka Hospital, in Beersheba, which suffered extensive damage.
The attack, a direct hit, left 71 injured and saw Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing revenge.
'Iran's terrorist tyrants launched missiles at Soroka Hospital and at a civilian population in the center of the country,' he said. 'We will exact the full price from the tyrants in Tehran.'
Israel's defense minister, Israel Katz, said that Iran's Supreme Leader 'can no longer be allowed to exist', branding him 'the modern Hitler.'
Netanyahu also refused to rule out an assassination attempt. The US has previously vetoed two attempts on Khamenei's life.
Israel also intensified its aerial attacks on Iran, blowing a large hole in a heavy water nuclear facility in Arak, having warned locals to evacuate the area in advance.
Earlier in the week an Israeli strike hit the building housing Iran's state broadcaster in Tehran. Mr Trump's surprise retreat appeared a victory for the UK-led diplomatic push as Sir Keir Starmer appealed for 'cool heads.'
The Prime Minister said: 'The principle is we need to de-escalate this. There is a real risk of escalation here that will impact the region, akin to Gaza, and will impact the economy.
'Yes, the nuclear issue needs to be dealt with but it is better dealt with by way of negotiations rather than conflict.
'I have been absolutely clear, we need to de-escalate this.'
President Trump's peace envoy Steve Witkoff is also understood to be separately speaking to the Iranian foreign minister, who has repeatedly insisted Iran is acting in self-defence.
Britain and Europe were also said to have warned Trump that bombing Iran would put Westerners at risk, fearing that it would trigger a wave of revenge attacks.
The two-week time limit is a tactic the President has used before, notably with Vladimir Putin over the future of Ukraine.
But, given that deadline has now twice passed without any concessions from the Russian president, questions were last night being asked of how serious all of Trump's tough talk is.
Calls for a pause in hostilities came hours after US sources confirmed that the President had signed off detailed plans for US operations against Iranian nuclear facilities, believing they needed to be wiped out to stop Tehran forging an atomic bomb.
Israel has attacked what it can but only 30,000lb US 'bunker buster' bombs have the capability to destroy plants such as at Fordow, deep in a mountain.
Sources told CBS News that Trump was open to letting Iran shut down Fordow but had made up his mind that it could not continue to operate.
'He believes there's not much choice,' one source said. 'Finishing the job means destroying Fordow.'
The Israelis have also said that Operation Rising Lion, as the now seven-day bombing campaign has been called, would be a failure if Fordow remained.
Leavitt said that regime change was not Trump's priority and called for people to 'trust President Trump'.
She stressed that there was no change in the US's position that Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb.
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Europe's frantic diplomatic mission in Geneva may go down as one of its most arduous ventures on the world stage – and also one of its most consequential. The foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany must persuade a battered Iranian regime to kow-tow to the US and Israel over its nuclear ambitions, or face likely annihilation. All three European powers would, of course, love to see the back of supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei's corrupt and brutal theocracy. But they rightly fear the regime's capacity to unleash death and destruction before it goes. If Trump joins Israel in the war on Iran with US bunker-busting bombs on nuclear sites, and it succeeds in killing Khamenei, there will still be plenty of Iranian hardliners left who will be willing to fight to the death. Previous inhibitions will not apply. That could mean use of a dirty bomb in the West, or chaos unleashed in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 90 per cent of the Gulf's oil passes. 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