Exploding cars and power cuts: how heatwaves will trigger ‘net zero meltdown'
Net zero technologies will backfire during heatwaves, Ed Miliband has been warned.
Heat pumps, electric cars and solar panels are among the various decarbonisation initiatives being pushed by the Energy Secretary to help the UK reach net zero by 2050.
But these technologies are at risk of breaking down, exploding and causing power cuts, and may need to be turned off in hot weather, experts have warned.
A report commissioned by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero warned that much of the energy grid and infrastructure was at risk from warm weather over 27C (81F).
Britain is set to have its first heatwave of 2025 this weekend, with health officials warning of a risk to life from temperatures of more than 30C. The report offers multiple warnings about the fallibility of net zero technologies in such temperatures.
Solar panels
In temperatures above 25C, solar panels become less effective by up to 0.5 per cent for every degree, the report warns. Heat also can speed up degradation of the panels themselves.
Scientists say they are safe in weather up to 50C but they become significantly less efficient on days where the sun is at its most powerful.
Two measures to address the solar panel shortcomings include creating 'oversized' products that are better able to handle heat, but need even more space.
Simply turning the solar panels off in heatwaves is another way to prevent them being damaged in the long term by exposure to high temperatures.
Curtailing solar energy production in the event of extreme heat would allow 'renewable energy supply to remain operational following extreme heat events', the report authors say.
The technical shortcomings of solar panels have been well documented, but Mr Miliband has repeatedly pushed ahead with expanding solar energy production.
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero is considering installing solar panel canopies over car parks and Mr Miliband recently stated his desire for every new-build home to come with solar panels as standard.
Heat pumps
Newly built homes will all come with heat pumps as standard by 2027 under expected new regulations, but this technology is not without its own issues.
Heat pumps broadly work by drawing in heat from the outside – the air, water or ground – and transferring it into the home.
Unlike conventional boilers, heat pumps are able to cool a home, as well as to heat it. This will lead to greater electricity usage in future summers than in the past.
Currently, only one in 20 homes have air conditioning but with the Government pushing heat pumps as an eco-friendly alternative to boilers this is expected to rise.
The report states: 'Significant growth is expected in domestic cooling demand, driven by rising temperatures and increasing adoption of heat pumps for heating and cooling as part of the UK's decarbonisation strategy.'
A 2021 government study found that the peak energy demand for cooling could increase from 12GW to 19GW by 2100. This is likely to be in the evening.
However, this spike comes after the peak of solar power generation and there could also be insufficient energy production to meet the demand for cool air.
The issue is worsened during heatwaves because solar panels perform suboptimally and may be switched off.
In 2022, when the UK breached 40C for the first time in recorded history, the UK was close to having insufficient electricity to meet demand as a result of decreased output and efficiency.
The study authors warn that the combination of heat-inhibited energy generation, high demand for cooling and peak usage in the evening could lead to load shedding and rolling power cuts.
The report authors write: 'The increased loading on electricity networks caused by active cooling may coincide with the periods of direct heat impact on the energy system.
'These factors may compound to increase the likelihood of electricity shortfalls and load shedding.'
The last Conservative government declared that 600,000 heat pumps would be installed annually in British homes from 2028.
But Labour has refused to commit itself to this pledge, first announced by Boris Johnson in 2020, and reports suggest the target is to be scrapped.
Electric cars
Another net zero goal that Mr Miliband had to relax was the Tory plan to ban the sale of new petrol or diesel cars by 2030. This is still in place, but hybrid vehicles can now be sold until 2035.
Electric vehicle batteries struggle in hot weather and pose efficiency concerns, as well as safety woes.
Lithium-ion batteries degrade quicker and break down sooner in temperatures above 35C. This level of heat can also lead to slower charging times, inhibited power output, and 'irreversible damage to the batteries', the report states.
As well as subprime performance, the heat can also cause the batteries in electric vehicles to catch fire and blow up, the report warns.
'Prolonged operation under high temperature can overwhelm [battery energy storage] cooling systems posing safety risks such as thermal runaway and explosions,' the document says.
'Prolonged exposure and operation under extreme heat are expected to pose a significant challenge to their optimum and safe operation.'
Nuclear power
The Government is pushing ahead with its switch from greenhouse-gas-emitting power generation such as coal, oil and gas to renewables, which includes nuclear.
The National Energy System Operator quango that manages the network is looking to go without gas at some point this year. It is hoped that 95 per cent of energy is from renewables by 2030.
Nuclear is considered to be key in allowing for this transition to occur and Mr Miliband has announced several billion pounds of extra funding for Sizewell C, and Rolls-Royce is now approved to begin manufacturing football-field-sized SMR reactors.
But the extreme heat report found nuclear power plants are also potentially vulnerable to hot weather and may have to be taken offline for safety reasons.
Extended hot weather accelerates degradation of the sites, the report warns, as well as making the water needed to cool the reactors less readily available.
The electricity output of nuclear power plants decreases by up to 0.5 per cent for every 1C increase in ambient air temperature and the reactors are slower to cool down. Extreme heat also makes nuclear power plants less efficient.
'Extreme heat may therefore force nuclear plants to reduce operations or shut down, straining the electrical grid during periods of high electricity demand,' the report states.
A government spokesman said: 'The best way to tackle extreme weather is to tackle the climate crisis.
'Our robust electricity system is already set up to cope with extreme scenarios. We will continue working with our partners to ensure future energy infrastructure is resilient to all hazards, including extreme heat, securing the safe, secure and resilient supply of electricity as we move to clean power.'
'Lacks real-world perspective'
Michael Kelly, Prince Philip professor of technology at the University of Cambridge, said the report is missing key information from hotter climates.
He said the real-world examples of Arizona and Riyadh show grids are more robust than believed.
'While they say things that are right, it is a bit over-alarming in the sense that people with enough notice would make the changes necessary,' Prof Kelly added.
'What they have done is just take models and data for the UK.
'They are right as far as it goes – but to the extent that it is used to spread doom and gloom, I would say they are probably overstating their case because they have not compared it.
'It is lacking any validation from a real-world perspective.'
Richard Tice, the deputy leader of Reform UK, said: 'Another government report highlights yet more risk of net zero.
'Solar panels and heat pumps may not work in heatwaves, exposing us all to risk of blackouts and major disruption.
'This will require ever more back-up systems, thus ever more extra cost. This means net zero bills will go up not down.'
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