4 Reasons Why Perfect Weather Forecasts Still Aren't Enough
LONDON, KENTUCKY - MAY 17: Tony McFall wears his father's cowboy hat, while looking over the debris ... More of his father's and step-mother's house, who lost their lives during the tornado in the neighborhood of Sunshine Hills on May 17, 2025 in London, Kentucky. A tornado struck communities in Somerset and London, Kentucky, leaving over 10 dead and more injured. (Photo by)
This week it was reported that sirens did not go off as deadly tornadic storms moved through the city of St. Louis. Officials are investigating what went wrong. This incident and conversations with non-meteorologist friends at a recent cookout inspired this essay. In that moment of post-graduation celebration and good fellowship, it hit me. We could have a perfect forecast, and it is still may not be enough to save lives unless we address other parts of the communication chain.
I am not naive. As a meteorologist, I know that we will ever have perfect forecasts. At the end of the day, we are using complex equations, computer models, observations, and experience to predict how the fluid above our heads is changing in the next few minutes, hours or several days. In such predictions, we also have to consider that Earth is rotating; conditions on the ground affect weather; data is incomplete; and physics is hard. Even with those caveats, weather predictions are quite good.
PEACHTREE CITY, GA - SEPTEMBER 26: A meteorologist with the National Weather Service, tracks the ... More progress of Tropical Storm Isidore September 26, 2002 in Peachtree City, Georgia. The system is bringing in much-needed rain to the Southeast which is in the midst of a five-year drought. (Photo by Erik S. Lesser/Getty Images)
Of course, we get comments and jokes about meteorologists and forecasts, but I often find that rooted in misuse of forecast information, reliance on flawed apps, or unrealistic expectations related to precise locations. A 30% chance of rain verified if it rained in your area even if you were not expecting it at your child's soccer game. A tornado warning for a region verified if a twister moved through your county even if it didn't affect your community. Which leads me back to our discussion about perfect forecasts.
Forecast skill has advanced over time due to more powerful computers, advanced radar systems, satellites, field campaigns, and scientific research. Think about the last time you saw reports of a airplane crashing because of wind shear or a hurricane surprising a coastal community like the Galveston storm of 1900. It just doesn't happen anymore. Just recently, I wrote about technology that is starting to enable up to two hours of lead time for a specific tornado. In 2025, it is extremely unlikely that a tornado does not have some level of warning. Frankly, it usually comes in multiple forms ranging from multiple day outlooks, watches, and warnings. Yet, we still get headlines like, 'It came without warning!' And for a person that never saw those warnings, watches, or outlooks, it certainly did.
That's my first point. Even if the forecast was perfect, if someone doesn't receive the information, they cannot act upon it. While we are a more connected society than ever, people still miss weather alerts, warnings, or emergency management directives. They just do. They may not be watching television. They may have disabled alert systems on their smartphone. They may not have access to their smartphone or even own one. By the way, there is a separate article that I could write about disproportionate impacts and access to information for certain communities, but I will save that for a different day. There are tens of other reasons people don't get that 'perfect forecast," and I am not sure how to solve that challenge.
Sirens are meant to alert people. As we saw in St. Louis, however, there was some type of breakdown in protocol for triggering the sirens. Human error or other system breakdowns can dilute appropriate weather information. For example, I cringed recently to see a story about cars stopping to shelter under an interstate overpass in Missouri. That mistake endangered many lives, including their own.
Let's get back to tornado sirens. Sirens are not meant to be heard inside. You may hear them inside, but they are not designed to be your indoor warning system. The National Weather Service website noted, 'Sirens are an outdoor warning system designed only to alert those who are outside that something dangerous is approaching.' I have seen many instances in which people complained about not hearing the sirens in their homes. It is important to have multiple ways to receive storm alerts and to be aware earlier in the day that severe weather is possible. Before you go to bed, you should always have a night plan and awareness of potential weather threats.
Speaking of storm awareness, one friend at that cookout made a point that stuck with me. She noted that the St. Louis region routinely experiences the threat of severe weather, which can make it hard to discern when a true threat is happening. This is called normalcy bias, a type of cognitive bias that causes people to dismiss or minimize warnings because of familiarity or expectation that 'normal' conditions prevail. In the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey (2017), I recall media interviews in which people said things like, 'We get rain and flooding in Houston all of the time, didn't think it would be this bad.' Scholars have discussed ways to overcome normalcy bias, but it is still one our biggest barriers to achieving the 'perfect' forecast and response.
Other psychological barriers exist too. People exhibit optimism bias if they survived a previous hurricane or tornadic storm without taking any action. Motivated reasoning causes people to make a poor decision, like driving into a flooded roadway or sitting in a stadium while lightning flashes around, because they have a desired outcome. I often see businesses, school systems, and other institutions exhibit motivated reasoning too.
In recent decades, the field of meteorology had an "aha" moment. The growth of social and behavioral sciences within our field has been important. We now understand that responses needed from weather risk communication will not come exclusively from just a better radar or computer model. People need to receive the information and understand what they are receiving. If someone does not understand what the 'cone of uncertainty' means as a hurricane approaches or the difference between tornado 'watch/warning," they may take the wrong actions or none at all.
Meteorologist Hugh Johnson points to the forecast cone of Hurricane Sandy on a computer map at the ... More National Weather Service on Fuller Rd. on Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012 in Albany, N.Y. This is the predicted path zone for the hurricane as of the time this photo was taken. (Photo by Lori Van Buren/Albany Times Union via Getty Images)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CBS News
28 minutes ago
- CBS News
Tips on how to file an insurance claim for storm damage
Helpful tips on how to file a insurance claim for storm damage Helpful tips on how to file a insurance claim for storm damage Helpful tips on how to file a insurance claim for storm damage Many people are dealing with damage from downed trees caused by Thursday's severe weather – that means dealing with insurance. No matter what you're dealing with, starting the process as soon as possible is key, and that starts with documentation. Take as many photos and videos as you can for your insurance company. If necessary, take steps to prevent any further damage, like covering broken windows or tarping up a damaged roof. Save your receipts. Many policies reimburse for out-of-pocket expenses related to the claim, like paying for a tarp or lodging. When it comes downed trees, where they ultimately fall makes all the difference. If a tree falls in your yard, but doesn't hit anything, that's likely on you to pay to clean it up. But if the tree falls on your house, that's a claim with your insurance company for removal and repairs to your home. Now, if your tree falls on your neighbor's house, then it's your neighbor's homeowners' insurance policy that's going to be responsible. If it's your car that was damaged in the storm, as long as you have comprehensive coverage, you'd file that claim with your auto insurance. One thing to keep in mind after a storm is the scammers. The Better Business Bureau warns that they might pose as a utility repair worker or an insurance adjuster. Never pay money up front if someone shows up at your door, and never share your policy details with anyone until you verify who they're with. Do you have a money question, a consumer issue, or a scam story you want to share? Email InYourCorner@
Yahoo
33 minutes ago
- Yahoo
FAA says Jacksonville Air Route Traffic Control Center experiencing telecommunications issue
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Federal Aviation Administration said on Friday that the Jacksonville Air Route Traffic Control Center in Florida is experiencing a telecommunications issue that has resulted in a loss of radar, frequencies, and automation equipment. The center continues to operate, according to the agency, which added that there is no loss of critical air traffic services due to the redundancies in both the equipment and telecommunications. The FAA said L3Harris and the local exchange providers have engaged and have initially identified the source of the outage as a fiber cut in Florida. It added that a local exchange carrier is on site and working to repair the issue. The center is responsible for 160,000 square miles (414,400 sq km) of airspace and covers parts of five states, including Florida and Georgia, according to the FAA.
Yahoo
33 minutes ago
- Yahoo
See it: Giant sphere falls from sky in Indiana after severe weather sweeps through
INDIANAPOLIS – Residents of an Indianapolis neighborhood came upon a rather sizable spherical object that flew into their neighborhood Wednesday evening, when thunderstorms rolled through Indiana. At about the size of a small shed, the object was found sitting on the side of a road with part of its flat bottom parked onto the curb. The object turned out to be a radome – a large orb-like enclosure that is used to protect radar antennas. Radomes are usually spherical, which allows the antenna to fully spin while being protected from the elements. How Weather Radars Have Saved Lives For Over 30 Years In addition to being hollow, the domes are usually made of lightweight materials. This makes covers like the one found in Indianapolis capable of taking flight under certain conditions. The cover came from a nearby property belonging to the tech infrastructure company V2X, according to local reports. "I think it probably got turned over and caught in the wind and unfortunately, it flew away," V2X Site Executive Andrew Belush told Fox 59. "We're really thankful no one got hurt or anything. No one got injured. But that's what it is, I can confirm it's not an alien satellite or an alien spaceship." How To Watch Fox Weather The city was placed under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning late Wednesday, when a storm with wind gusts of about 65 mph came article source: See it: Giant sphere falls from sky in Indiana after severe weather sweeps through
